KamuSnow

Good post, but technically PHL did have 0.3" in December from the inverted trough, so that kind of knocks it out of that box. At this point I'd be happy to have a trace to tide me over for a couple more weeks.

Wet or dry? I think you have to pay extra for dry with wind to blow it around.

That sounds like a good play! You have my vote, lol.

I read his tweet thread last night also, looking for some reasons for optimism and came away with the opposite, lol. Or more like wahhh. I've rescheduled my hypothetical maybe some snow date range to Jan. 20th - 25th. Still hopeful but the 7 - 10 day teases have gotten old. I think the average temps here bottomed Dec. 5th - 12th and have been creeping up since. Hard to even get below freezing this week. Might as well go full torch for a couple of weeks and wait for that arctic cold front like we've done the last few years.

Don't forget the humidity, mmm mmm mmm.

At times like these it would be nice to have groundhog-like skills and be able to hibernate for 2 weeks.

I'm going with that thought regarding the EPS - sometimes the Euro does that (lag from the op to the ens). Maybe because of the changes/transition going on?

Amen.

Cool, I didn't know that. Does it face northeast like the original?

^ I did some work on the Innovation Center building....the elevation at the top of the upper cooling towers is about 1020 ft asl (the spire on top is about another 125 ft). It gets pretty windy up there!

Lol - if we had a better chance of snow tomorrow night would you take it up tomorrow?

Up to 0.75" for the day here, most of it this evening. Sounds like you need an amphibious vehicle.

Happy New Year everybody!

Congrats! You should save it and put in the display case!

Could still be fun though!

I've seen a few posts touching on things that could jinx potential snow, mostly humorous while playing at being a superstitious snow weenie. Such as "don't buy that new snowblower" "ok now you've done it", lol. Most of mine are low risk short term, like being outside at 7pm blowing leaves or debris off the lawn the night before an expected accumulating snow. It's a pretty reliable indicator for the neighbors. Then there's the snow piles after the fact. If I did get a new snow blower I might keep it under my hat so I wouldn't get blamed for a bad pattern, lol.

I saw what looked to be a decent back yard version for about $1500, compressor and a 2 gpm power washer included. I'm afraid I'd use it one season and the novelty would wear off. And all my grandkids are in Arizona, lol.

Do you have a snowmaking machine? I've thought about it. I realize you're probably talking about a ski resort but you never know!

In spite of the long range model teases we've been getting lending hope to stepping down into a better pattern, it's looking more and more like we may have to actually wait until Jan. 15th - 20th. At least it's only 2 or 3 weeks away now. Which means a week or so away from seeing it reflected in model runs. Part of me wants to lol, but I'm keeping the faith for now!

I was looking at PHL and technically it wasn't snowless in December due to the inverted trough that gave 0.3" of snow there. So I went back to 1951 and found (8) winters where there was a weak or moderate El Nino and where there was also 0.3" or less snow at PHL in December. (2) of those years also had measurable snow in November. The seasonal totals for those (8) years ranged from a low of 5.1" in 1958-59 to a high of 54.9" in 1977-78. 1958-59 had no snow in November while 1977-78 had 0.2". The average snowfall for those 8 years at PHL was 24.6", which is about 2" above normal. Of course if you took 1977-78 out it would be about 2" less than normal (20.2"), but why would we do that? So far this winter PHL has had 3.9" of snow. Even though our samples and locations are different, they both point to a reasonable chance for at least normal snowfall from January through March. Disclaimer: Based on the unusual atmospheric goings on, due to climate in general and just because, analogs may have limited value currently (uncharted territory in some respects it appears). At the same time, going with what we do know, it's way too early to toss in the towel. And remember how the seasons have seemed to lag the last couple or few years.

I'm thinking about adjusting my expectations to something like 2011-2012. Then anything more would be a bonus.

While I have no idea of the implications of much of what he posted since my knowledge is pretty limited, it was pretty clear that he expects a lag in the impacts of the MJO moving to Phases 7 and 8. Probably why he posted it at 2 am, lol. Eta - What JI said.

Yeah, haven't had to use up our tick supply.

Lol, that puts a smile on my face. Come on baby, only 6 days to go!

Nah, lol. Fwiw every model has had some variation of it in the last 4 runs. We're gonna have to work for it though.