Cold Rain

1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Back loaded winters are more fun for me because you get so many kows on the heels for each other. Sure, the temp profiles aren't as good, but that is just part if the fun "am I good or am I torched"

Maybe, but waiting for winter to start is hard.  It sucks wasting half of the winter.  At least we’re not torching.  It’s just unfortunate that there is no cold air anywhere nearby.

5 hours ago, WidreMann said:

SSW doesn't look like it will lead to a split, or at least not yet. So that's out. LR Euro sucks. We're hanging onto post 240-hr GFS. Oof.

Yup.  Winter.

Merry Christmas, folks!  May God bless you and your families today and throughout the new year!

Overnight LR guidance looking pretty good.  Lots of good signs showing up as we get into January!

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Improving look on the ensembles as we go into early January.  Could be rushing it a bit, but the eastern trough is developing, and the building Scandinavian Ridge is in a precursor position to retrograde west into Greenland here on the GEFS (EPS has some similar ideas).  I suspect this evening's Euro Weeklies will be good again.

Yes sir.  I noticed that for the first time in days, all four GFS overnight runs began to look a bit better at the end.  I'm guessing they are rushing it, like you said, but it's going to be nice to see some good pattern consistency start to show up at the end and work its way in.

3 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

CFS is around -6 for departures in the carolinas on week 4-5. 

Seems pretty rare to see the CFS actually predict cold a month out.

41 minutes ago, Solak said:

It may get soggy, or not, on Thursday.

 With heavy rain once again the primary threat, a 
storm total precipitation of 1.5 to 2 inches could once again bring 
rivers to flood stage. One potential caveat to this scenario is that 
much of the strongest convection appears to head east of the CWA. 
The other is the potential for a large dry slot to develop and move 
into central NC, thus limiting rainfall totals.

We're so close to a eclipsing 1996 at RDU, we might as well go ahead and break it.

1 hour ago, Queencitywx said:

I didn’t know that they had this product but the weeklies have a 45 day snow mean. It has about 4” for chapel hill. Wrap your head around that. There could be some very good times ahead. 

 

Where you seeing that?

Euro has a deep trough and closed ULL also.  Wish it was colder and some folks could get some snow.  Mountains should pick up some, but it looks unlikely for anyone else.

SSSSSSSSSSW ftw!!

57 minutes ago, No snow for you said:

I'm in for a GTG. Where are we going. 

Angus Barn.  You'll love it.  Bring your snow shovel.  It'll probably be January.

22 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Hey CR, you would almost think that map was setting the stage for something to sneak along the gulf just in time for Christmas. At least that's what my weenie eyes want to see..   

It very well could.  I think the GFS and its replacement have both had a storm on and off during that time frame.  The issue is going to be cold air delivery.  I haven't yet seen a model depict adequate cold air for any legit wintry threat outside the mountains during this period, even though I have seen a few good tracks with the southern storm.  We haven't been able to see Euroland yet, so we'll wait till it gets into the 10 day period.  I'd like to see some high pressure up there though, instead of the parade of lows.  The only shot it looks like we'll have is for a particularly strong northern wave to run deep enough south and lay down a little cold air right ahead of the storm and also act to keep it suppressed.  It's a needle.

Not that we need to spend vast amounts of time analyzing a 10 day Euro map, but since we have nothing going on, it's fun to at least take a look at it.  I like this view, as it may present some clues as to how things might evolve:

You can see the Euro keeps the STJ going strong.  This is a plus and will enable some of us to score easier than we normally would, even in a less than ideal pattern.  The red area (EPO space) looks to be evolving favorably, going from low pressure to high pressure, facilitating a -EPO.  The big pink blob over the NP needs to go.  If the EPO space evolves favorably, then you'll see the pink area "migrate" toward Canada.  The Yellow area needs some work as well.  Having a lot of activity there means bouts of warm air intrusion into Canada and the Pac NW.  We go rapidly back and forth from a +PNA to a -PNA as each wave crashes into the coast.  The model looks to be sort of regtrograding this westward toward the Aleutians.  Hopefully, that evolves into a low pressure zone in that area.

This kind of pattern, until it changes into something more favorable will need good timing to produce anything other than rain.  Fortunately, with the STJ remaining active, this may be easier to achieve than previous years.  Hopefully, the EPO will become favorable, the strenuous activity off the NW coast will abate, and a PNA ridge will stabilize.  I give that a decent chance of happening, if the model is correct here.  Down the line, such a pattern combined with the elusive -NAO would be very favorable for wintry weather in the SE.  The good news is, if the model is correct, we shouldn't be too far from having fantasy land threats start showing up again.

51 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yeah, I hate CLT! Grew up 20 years in Gastonia, still can’t find my way around CLT! But I hear the Angus Barn, is pretty legendary! I would love to be at the next get together! I could knock out a 32oz ribeye, mid-rare! Yeah, I got sisters and family in Apex and Roxboro! I’m only coming if Bricks coming!

On topic, GFSv3, has our Christmas storm showing winter mischief. Hopefully it’s not rushing the pattern change, but as long as we get the cold rockin in January, we will be golden!! We got 99 problems, but moisture ain’t one!! 

Lol Brick will never, ever go to a GTG.  But you should come up anyway.  I'll bet Frazdaddy can hook us up with a deal.  He knows everybody!

2 hours ago, frazdaddy said:

I'm in, we have a lot more forum peeps now. Maybe @mackerel_sky will join us this time.

More on topic, the FV3 sure is throwing some interesting frozen scenarios out for the end of the month. Looks like we will get to see just how good this new model can be! 

@mackerel_skywill say he will, and then he'll spend half the time driving loops around 540!  I think he has family in the area, though.  Mack, that right?

I'm impressed with the FV3, in terms of how it did with the last storm.  In recent winters, I don't believe we've been able to track a winter storm in from 7-10 days out.  This one was a long-track deal.

26 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

We certainly dont look torchy. I'd say at or slightly below average through christmas. 

That's about right.  The pattern doesn't look very exciting, but at least there are no signs of locking in any type of summer pattern for an extended duration.  If the MJO keeps trucking around the horn, then we should start to see some type of wintry threat show up toward the beginning of next month.  I'm a big fan of the STJ action we've seen so far (which looks to continue).  It would be nice for some blocking to start showing up.  I keep waiting on that winter after winter, but it never really materializes.  I was thinking this winter would turn the tide, especially after what we saw in November, but so far, nada.

19 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Skies have to heal! Will be tracking another huge rainstorm in time for the holidays!

Skies are going to break again this weekend.  What are the birds saying?

15 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Lol, I will say the FV3 is even colder then the old GFS. **but if taken literally, it initially drops the cold towards the west in the LR.  

Yeah, that last frame is ugly.  It'll change again next time.

When we hitting the Angus Barn back up?!

2 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Of course this is out in la la land, but the 12z GFS shows that cross polar air at the end of its run. That's some cold air spilling into North America:

 

Fake Version isn't in the holiday spirit.

5 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I just got up and checked and there are some wet flakes mixed in FINALLY.  It is extremely frustrating seeing all the snow while my ground is bare and wet.

Hug the fake version 3.

1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

I'm off 42 near Kennebec. 

Nice!  My wife just texted and said it's sleeting with a few flakes mixed now.  You still just a cold rain?

Just now, weatherbubba said:

You're in my neck of the woods!  I live about two miles north of McCullers Crossroads near Buffaloe Lanes and speaking of hills, I used to go out when it snowed just to watch the accidents and to help push people out who lost it on that hill near the bowling alley.  I'll bet there is some live action going on around there!

I live off of Old Stage Rd., 3 miles down Rock Service Station almost to 42.  Just 3 miles north of me had an inch more snow!

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

And that is the direction I have to go for work. 

They just closed our office.  So we'll call that a win.  I'll drive back home, where I'm sure it's raining.

Snowing big in downtown Raleigh now.

Picking up here.  Visibility dropping rapidly to the west-southwest.