Cold Rain

2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Heres 12z GFS at 144:  ends up being to late and off coast before we can get the trough to tilt neutral.

I’d much rather see that at this lead than a big storm.

41 minutes ago, Looking to the skies said:

I have a question for you who are watching the operational models instead of looking at the overall picture.  Why are you putting faith in something that changes from run to run-- DAILY, not every other day or so, but sometimes 2-3 times daily?  It is plain to see , even for just a geek like me without the credentials that Sunday starts the ball rolling with the cold train that has been advertised.  After that with the snow that is going to be put down, the cold just gets deeper and deeper.  The models are not picking that up, and common sense says otherwise and the big picture does too....  Also we have History and similar years and patterns to go by for us to understand that a Modili winter means moisture and cold for the East and S East....

Big picture definitely shows a change is underway.  It's not a winter storm pattern for most yet, but that doesn't mean a perfectly-timed event can't happen.  Anyway, longer range tools continue to suggest we're moving in the right direction.  But at some point, the operationals will lock in on that.  When a good winter storm pattern actually gets close enough to worry about, the operational models will pick it up. Right now, they're bouncing around with where they want the trough to set up and where the PV is placed.  So far, they have not locked in on a good winter pattern.  But at least the change is underway, and we look to be stepping down colder.

The good thing is, cold is nearby now, but we're going to have to wait and see if a suppressed flow actually sets up and whether or not we can get the right configuration up north to allow high pressure to set up in a good location.  In the meantime, we can drool over the long range ensembles and hope they're onto something.  Although they often show better depictions than the operational models in the LR, due to smoothing, they should be a bit more accurate this time, given the myriad well-reasoned predictions of a back-loaded winter.  But at some point, when we're really on the doorstep of a good winter storm pattern, the operationals will pick it up and hold it.  We're still probably 10 days away from that at least.  That's probably what the anxiety is about.

12 minutes ago, Looking to the skies said:

Maybe it is just because i want it to be so--  But it seems like the GFS is just too warm in the long range outlook.  The temps and the systems don't quite match up, or am i again wish casting?

No, you’re right.  That’s what the GFS shows.

9 minutes ago, sarcean said:

What a mess of a forecast here in Greensboro

 

Saturday

A slight chance of snow after 1pm, mixing with sleet after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 37. East wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday Night

Rain, freezing rain, and sleet likely before midnight, then freezing rain and sleet between midnight and 3am, then freezing rain after 3am. Low around 30. Northeast wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Sunday

Rain or freezing rain before 1pm, then a chance of snow and sleet between 1pm and 4pm, then a chance of rain after 4pm. High near 34. Northeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no snow and sleet accumulation expected.

Sunday Night

A chance of rain before 10pm, then a chance of rain or freezing rain between 10pm and 1am, then a slight chance of snow after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday

A chance of snow before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Lol that seems ridiculously confusing.

IMO, the storm in December has no bearing on the rest of the winter, not that anyone is saying that it is.  I’ve seen several times the stat about we don’t usually get more than one big snow event. While true, I don’t see the value in such a metric, as it pertains to how the rest of the winter is likely to play out.  It would be the same as if we hadn’t gotten a big storm already and someone used the same stat in a “we’re due” manner.  It only really matters as a footnote.  Realistically, more than half of the winter is left, and we likely haven’t even gotten into the most favorable climo period or pattern that we are likely to see.  I’d say, based on that, the odds of another significant winter storm or two are fairly high.

Going to be another winter of Miller Fs and mixed bags.  Wonder if we’ll ever get a real snowstorm again.

11 hours ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

Thank you sir. Will be interesting to see what happens for both teams before their rematch in a month. Our conference looks brutal at the top this year.

Yeah, the ACC is pretty stacked this year.  You guys will no doubt do very well.  I’m still not sure about the Pack, in terms of their consistency.  Most of the players are new (transfers) this year.  But they play with a really good energy and attitude.  Going to be a fun season.

4 hours ago, SnowDawg said:

One thing bothering me, even into the long range on the GFS is the storm track seems absolutely locked in on bringing lows through central AL & GA instead of along the gulf. Need some suppression, but I’m scared to even ask for it cause then you end up with last January with the Deep South along the coast getting snow while it’s sunny and in the 20’s here lol.

Storms do not track through southern GA, southern SC, or northern FL in winter anymore.  The will track through the southern part of any other state in the US but not those three.

When you’re having to rely on the ICON, the CMC, and backside snow, you are in sad shape.

Timing and better “seeing” of the CAD may cause a few more south ticks before it’s all said and done.  But I certainly don’t like seeing the north jumps that have occurred lately.  But that’s fairly typical.  Hopefully, the models are underestimating the degree of damming.

7 hours ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

It's funny how Keatts wasn't the 1st choice, but was likely the best choice. (We'll likely know for sure about 3 years from now) I agree you finally got what you were looking for.

Oh Gottfried. He sure could talk the talk. Talented enough to score an upset or two in the NCAA's, and land some top recruits. Then they would mysteriously transfer.

He was probably getting it on with their girlfriends.  Anyway, congrats to the Heels on a good win.  Can’t give a good team 200 second and third and fourth chance shots.  Kevin Keatts is a winner.

Let me know if that runs off the page to the right and I’ll delete it.  Posting from my phone and it was giving me a hard time with selecting the appropriate section.

RAH sounds really bullish this far out.  Really good discussion.

There remains little to no change in forecast rationale from 24 hrs
ago, with average to above average forecast confidence in the
overall pattern, but below average confidence in details.

The middle Atlantic states will be firmly influenced by cold,
continental polar high pressure extending from the upr Midwest to
the Carolinas through the end of the week. 850 mb temperatures
trailing a pair of polar fronts that will cross cntl NC tonight and
Wednesday are forecast to nadir around minus 11-12 at GSO by 12Z
Thu. Related cold air advection will support a strong nwly breeze,
amidst a deeply mixed boundary layer, even nocturnally Wed night,
with wind chill values in the teens through late morning Thu.
Although the wind will subside by Thu night, the presence of a
"break-off", 1030 mb surface high over the wrn Carolinas Fri morning
will support colder air temperatures - mostly between 20 and 25
degrees. High temperatures will be similarly chilly, in the upr 30s
to mid 40s Thu and perhaps a 2-3 degrees less cold on Fri.

While the aforementioned mid-upr low/trough will lift newd and away
from the nern US through the end of the week, renewed nrn stream
amplification, with a few distinct shortwave troughs embedded
within, is forecast to occur from cntl Canada to the cntl
Appalachians Fri-Mon. At the same time, a srn stream shortwave
trough is forecast to migrate across the srn US, likely immediately
preceding the nrn stream troughs (ie. slightly out of phase),
through Sat-Sat night. None of those features, most borne from the
large, deep cyclone over the ern/e-cntl N. Pacific this morning, are
not forecast to reach the NOAM rawinsonde network until 12Z Thu; and
it will likely be the 00Z Fri NWP runs that provide a marked boost
in model agreement and forecast confidence - after those features
will have been sampled twice by the upr air network (12Z Thu and 00Z
Fri), and previous model run initialization influences been dampened
by hopefully "better" data.

Further complicating the forecast by D6-7 --and possible
continuation of large scale ascent, deformation, precipitation
production over the middle Atlantic states--  will be the degree of
Arctic stream amplification across the sern Canada/Great
Lakes/Northeast vicinity, as well as the ejection of additional srn
stream energy beneath a developing Rex block over the wrn CONUS.

Despite those complexities and details, the overall pattern will be
one supportive of cyclogenesis from the GOM to the middle Atlantic
coast, with a track and intensity close to the preferred GEFS and
EPS means. Specifically, such a solution is unlike the wrn outlier
00Z/8th deterministic GFS track, which favors an inland track
through ern NC and warmer solution for cntl NC; and it is closer to
the 00Z/8th deterministic ECMWF track (ie. more offshore and colder
for cntl NC), and stronger. Additionally strong confluence aloft
over the nrn middle Atlantic states and Northeast, though to varying
degrees given the uncertainties aloft described above, will favor a
well-positioned, and strong, cold high extending across the middle
Atlantic states - one that will provide sufficient cold air to
support measurable snow across parts of the middle Atlantic
Piedmont, including probably the climatologically-favored nrn and
wrn NC Piedmont, from late Sat-early Sun, and potentially
longer.

32 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

As long as we can keep that feed of cold air down from the north (in CAD), we should be fine. Cut that source off and we end up rain. 

So far, it looks like a pretty classical CAD setup.  And, the air mass should be colder than December, so I’d expect a bigger deal, if these trends continue.

7 hours ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

I don't think I've ever seen Bama get embarrassed like that. Congrats Clemson. 

They got beat stoopidly.  Pretty amazing actually.

ZR is only self-limiting when there isn't a continuous feed of cold, dry air.  Long as you got a high in the right spot, funneling in cold, dry air, it can freezing rain for days.

6 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

FWIW: The 6Z GEFS MSLP Anomaly doesn't jive with the OP.  More Miller A-like.

That's a pretty good configuration for a southeast winter storm.  It would be nice to have some snow cover established up north to refrigerate the air being transported in here.  I would definitely favor very western zones with this one.

Happy New Year, folks!

5 minutes ago, Poimen said:

I understand the sentiment but this is the precise evolution that the experts are predicting. At some point we’re going to need to see this look showing up consistently in the LR. Hopefully it starts now.

We can’t seem to get more than one, maybe two cycles in a row with that kind of evolution at the end.  If the experts are to be right, we’ll probably start seeing it pretty soon.  Hopefully nchailstorm’s corona doesn’t run out.

9 hours ago, PackGrad05 said:

I just mean that you don't need sustained cold to get a nice storm.  You need 1-2 days of cold combined with a good storm track.  
40s-60s are the new norm around here in the winter.  

Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like 1-2 days of cold will be showing up anytime soon.  I’m seriously starting to think that the entire month of January is toast.  I really was optimistic about this winter finally being a good one too.  Maybe February will turn out ok.  It fits with all the analogs.  We’ll see.

50 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

If the Fv3 GFS is correct most of us, outside the mountains, wont see freezing temps until ~mid January. Of course the Canadian, with its cold bias, says just wait until late next week. 

The pattern looks atrocious for the foreseeable future.  The only encouraging thing is the theory that the last half of the winter will be good.  Of course, pretty soon that will probably move from late January and February to February only, much like it has moved from mid-January to now late January.  The MJO has stalled twice now and looped in the bad phases.  Want to place a bet on how many times it does so in the good phases?

1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

Where exactly are you in Raleigh?  I am guessing somewhere in the south.

SE Wake.  Horrible place to live.

2 hours ago, cbmclean said:

How so?

Even in the crappiest winters I got at least a bit of sleet, zr, and a few flakes of snow, which is all I got this winter so far.  Literally 1-2 miles down the road from me got 3” with the December storm.  I expect winter to get better.  But so far it has sucked rolyally so far for me.

1 hour ago, mwp1023 said:

I have already had a foot of snow.  If we get 70's from here on out this was a great year! 

Must be nice.  So far, this ties the worst winter ever for me.

1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Also, I want to apologize for my bad grammar, fighting off a cold and not up to 100% yet so I didn't catch my spelling mistakes

No worries on that dude.  Hope you feel better!