7 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I was thinking that pink and green must be some BIG TIME cold until I saw the scale; green is only -3 c 

Still, I'll take below normal anyway and anytime I can get it!

I thought the same thing.  It's a misleading tactic designed to be click bait.

51 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Anothe big rain cold event incoming! This may be a prolonged, extra cold rain event! Thu-Sat

Better than an extra long cold drought event!

Nice little chilly rain event.  Good to keep the drought conditions at bay this time of year.

1 hour ago, NC_hailstorm said:

MJO re emerging in the W.Pacific right on time(Nov.11-16th)with a big Arctic front entering the eastern US.Still think it keeps moving till around Nov.28th-Dec.4th into phase7,8,1,2 but as low as the solar wind has been this cycle I'd lean closer to early December but we'll see.

MJO should stall,weaken.or move to Maritime around Nov.28th-Dec.4th.There may be a relaxing of the pattern around and a bit after then then but the MJO should re emerge around Dec.6th-Dec.12th.December can be tricky if we get unexpected solar wind flareups like last year which in my opinion locked up the MJO in a warm phase longer than expected.

Also I'm watching the QBO closely,if that flips let's just say watch out.

Just my opinion.

Can you do please do these updates at least 4 times per week?  Thanks!!

16 minutes ago, NCSU_Pi said:

OK, Nammer

Going to be an eye-strainer!

Great read, Grit!  I hope you bust too warm!!

5 hours ago, Solak said:

Gotta love the headlines this morning.

USA Today:

Next week's Arctic blast will be so cold, forecasters expect it to break 170 records across US

CBS News:

Americans prepare for Arctic blast

That's awesome.  I think our area might crash all the way down to the upper 20s one night.  A few days ago, I remember seeing a 12.  Models seem like they might struggle by overdoing temps just a little bit in the long range.

6 hours ago, Buddy1987 said:

What's everybody's take. You rather have a front loaded winter and take your chances on the back end or have a crappy warm pattern front end and loaded back end? For me I'd rather take front and roll the dice on back end. 

100% agree.  Take it and run.  All day long!

It is hard to believe that we will get as cold as the models are hinting at next week.  Lows below 20?  That would be a pretty amazing feat for mid-November.  I bet we'll see some moderation in that forecast over the next few days.

Fall is coming!  Starting to look chilly as we roll towards Halloween.

1 minute ago, rowjimmy73 said:

Watching that arrival time for ts winds showing up weds pm/Thursday am extrapolated makes me uneasy here in the piedmont. What's the chance it starts its post tropical transition and the western precip shield becomes a problem up here?

Still a whole lot to iron out, and the question you raise depends on when and where it makes landfall.  If landfall is along the central SC coast and it moves inland, the transition should start occurring soon after, sending the shield NW.  If it stays off the coast and makes landfall farther north, the rain shield wont get too far west.

It's really amazing how many times tropical cyclones parallel the SE coast.

This is awesome.  I will be able to get a better view of the snow melting above my head this winter!

20 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Patterns tend to repeat, even if they suck! Unless they are cold and snowy, then it’s a 1 and done 3 day stretch per winter!

Good.  We'll expect the rainy pattern from last week to repeat over and over this summer!

48 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

Regardless, I'm not sure if I've ever seen wind speeds this high above the surface over NC.  Incredible.  Lots of potential, but like @downeastnc said the bust potential is high as well.

The winds upstairs are going to be at the upper end of what we usually see around here.  RE: the NAM, I do not trust its depictions of CAPE or meso lows and such right now.  It always looks scary severe weather-wise.  I won't say there's zero tornado risk because we just don't know yet.  At this point, what we do know is that there are some things look likely and some things look possible.

It looks likely that instability will be limited, due to an elevated warm layer and a largely overcast sky.  It looks likely that there will be a lot of wind energy aloft that can be easily tapped.  It looks likely that there will be a lot of rain, and the soil will be easily saturated.  It looks likely that flooding will be a concern.  It looks likely that even if winds remain below severe limits in most areas, downed trees would still be a concern, due to the aforementioned soil conditions.

It is possible that instability will be higher if breaks in the cloud cover occur (hard to tell at this lead).  It is possible that a meso-low forms, backing the low level winds and increasing the tornado threat, at least for eastern areas.  It is possible that convection earlier in the day reduces instability by the time the main forcing comes through, thus reducing the wind threat.

The main take-aways for me right now are that the potential is there for widespread wind damage reports, resulting from a squall line.  There is not yet enough clarity or broad support to justify anything higher than an Enhanced Risk at this point, IMO.  I certainly wouldn't be using the word "historic" yet.  It is possible that things could change for the worse.  But that is not the most likely scenario, based on the data available right now.

1 hour ago, jjwxman said:

For the Carolinas: I don't think we'll see a Moderate Risk. (but what do i know )  There are few things that will plague this forecast. 1st. The influx of tropical moisture will likely cause a warm layer around the 700-500mb level, this will weaken the mid level lapse rates. 2nd. The whole column looks very tropical, there will likely be a lot of cloud cover so CAPE will be limited.  3rd.  PW values will likely be at record territory for this time of year, and with the slow progress of the system west to east, flooding will probably be the forefront of this event from training storms. I wouldn't be surprised to see some 2-4" rain totals in some areas.  4th. If we do see some sun and decent destabilization then this could turn out to be a significant severe weather event, particular for damaging winds, the hodographs are more elongated than curved, so the tornado threat should remain isolated in nature unless we get more backing from SE surface winds.  A lot to decipher over the coming days.  

Strongly agree with all of this.

2 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

Nada, < 1" of slop

Same here.  Thought you would have done a bit better.  Maybe we can get a March Miracle.

26 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

I'm in when #JBurns sees flakes.

How much did you get in December?

1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

Yeah until this year, a storm showing at this range would really peak the interest. We've even created storm threads for day 7 storms. But this year, I'm not sure when to take storm threats seriously.   

12 hours still might be a bit early, but it would probably be at least within the window of appropriate lead time for a thread this year.

35 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

I love it. The models (6z FV3 and GFS) wants to give us the middle finger for one last time this season with a day 7 fantasy storm.

6z FV3:

 

That’s awesome.  Will we finally be able to get one stick around till the100 hour mark?

Saw a couple of flakes on the way into downtown Raleigh this morning.  Of course, that's not all that unusual for a drive in.

2 hours ago, wake4est said:

We got like .5" of sleet where I am.  No snow in it.

It snowed a bit here in SE Wake and then went to sleet then rain.  We got about an inch of slush.  That was it for the winter.

23 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

It’s a sad winter when the highlight was watching sleet pellets mix with the rain for 3-4 hours with tens at 36 degrees!

I saw 10 minutes of snow in the December storm.  Unfortunate that we couldn't buy any cold this year.

Hard to get too bullish yet, given our history of watching 7+ day threats warm up on the way in.  But we're in the final innings and the signal is strong for a storm.  Hopefully, it won't trend north too badly.

33 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Here is what the GFS showed at a 5 day lead. Does that look accurate to you?

That's not bad...it seems to be within a few degrees.  I think the whole "overperform" thing is subjective because it's a nebulous term.  If it was supposed to be 50 and it ended up in the 30s, I'd say that overperformed.  If we were supposed to get all rain, but instead we got mostly rain with a few sleet pellets and wet snowflakes mixed in for a half our.  I'd say that performed as progged.

For a good "overperforming" CAD, where you get much more frozen over a much wider area than the models thought 5 days out, you need the source region really dry and very cold and have the high build in a good 6 hours prior to the precipitation falling...not coincident with or after the bulk of it has fallen.  We need dews in the teens at least to get a good overperformer around here.