Cold Rain

Looking out toward NC State campus, it looks like they are getting smoked.

1 minute ago, Jet Stream Rider said:

Ah yes, sleet, my old friend. And its accumulating.

Did you know that sleet is a dish that is best served cold?

1 minute ago, CaryWx said:

EG didn't say. Just showed their model forecast.  You'll need to watch it on WRAL site

Will do!  Thank you!

2 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

WRAL calling for potential of 2-4 inches in Triangle until around lunch before changing back to rain and temps plummet after sundown.  May see some more light snow tonight but not definite on that yet.

Wonder why it will change back to rain when the upper low comes through?  Are they expecting the surface to warm?

All snow in downtown Raleigh now, it looks like.

Snow and sleet in downtown Raleigh.

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Any reports from Raleigh? Snow totals?

1” in SE Wake.  Raining now, I think.

Wind-whipped sleet at a moderate clip.

3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

It has been all over the place today, though.

How so?

1 minute ago, wake4est said:

High end map. Is it too much to ask that for once we over perform??

That’s up from last time, right?

Just now, WidreMann said:

They should be banned TBH.

The amount of midlevel warmth is going to really cut down on snow for folks tomorrow. I'm predicting a lot of "why is it already sleeting?" posts.

At this point, I’m just hoping for some sleet.

1 minute ago, GunBlade said:

Time and time again the Globals fail this close to the storm.  It’s fruitless trying to forecast with those now unless you want to prove a point that’s likely to not come to fruition...

You actually can do pretty well if you understand the setup and learn from past situations. Even if you simply use the snow maps and take the 48-72 hour ones and adjust the max significantly north and cut them in half, you’ll usually get pretty close.

Who will be the first to say you can’t trust the Euro at this range and instead rely on the HRRR and other short range non-warming-showing models?

1 minute ago, Poimen said:

The NAMs brought the goods tonight. Gotta love the way the qpf is trending at this time. Here's the 3K Kuchera:

Poiman, what service do you use for that map?

That’s what I mean about the mojo baby!  Let’s keep that spirit going for the RGEM and the ICON.

Who’s a good pbp person that has good mojo with the terms “much colder” and “much more snow”?  Application toward Raleigh a plus.

1 minute ago, ajr said:

Sorry I’m catching up here, but what are we making of this terrible 18z NAM run? We tossing?

Better not.  At 0z you will wish you had kept it!

3 minutes ago, Bryan63 said:

https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1071117371224571904?s=19

Allan Huffmans latest thinking. 

Don't be stealing MillerA's thunder!

The sun angle is about as good as it gets.  So at least we got that going for us!

Sure would be nice if we had an actual Arctic air mass to tap into.  Maybe later this winter we can get a similar setup.

Just now, Queencitywx said:

Garbage. They are total garbage. I don’t get why anyone would use them. 

I agree.

1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

Problem is the temps at the surface are 33-35 for most of that...according to that it even MBY would be sleet/snow most of the storm though with temps just above freezing...so might be one of those times where we get a quick 2-4" of slop with the heavy rates before it lighten up and goes to cold rain......

I would think that with the wedge and heavy snow falling, we'd hover around freezing or just below.  But there's no way the column is going to be that cold.  It will be really interesting if the Euro comes in similar.  But I expect it will tick north, just like the others.

Looks like the 12z runs have generally ticked north.  Was hoping to see southward ticks continue.

5 minutes ago, PackWxMan said:

Wow - thanks Fish. You just explained EVERY snow storm in Raleigh. Which ensembles is he referring to? 

 

For those unfamiliar with Fish, he is typically the most conversative forecaster on earth

He LOVES the SREFs.

14 minutes ago, griteater said:

FV3 Loop

I love this, but there is no way that is going to be right.  Oh how I wish, though.

1 minute ago, NCSNOW said:

Best or safe way for areas to luck up on the fringes  is to root for the early thump. You can see column cool from top down at the beging as precip breaks out on most model runs if you watch  real close. See 850/0 line push south.So if you can saturate and get a good burst , itll sustain itself and delay the changeover. If you  get  a virga storm then the opportunity will be lost and its straight to ice when things rev up and heat up above with SE winds, warm nose.

So you want deny the warmnose but ifbyou can delay it a few hours, then all want be lost and maybe at the end get a quick burst of an inch to whiten things back up.

Yep, good post.