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Derecho!

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  1. Derecho!
    6z HWRF has a very large hurricane with a large circulation coming ashore. Likely a Cat 2 intensity-wise at landfall, but after having reached 939 mb in the central GOM. If that verifies, the surge impacts are going to be brutal. Yeah, my fear is basically that it Ivans itself, and then windspeed reduction right before landfall doesn't really matter. I have tried to read a few papers on it but the cause and constraints of TC wind radius and it's changes seem...mysterious to me. Obviously affected by surrounding background pressure, size of originating disturbance, eyewall replacement ycles, etc. As a side note, despite all the storms none Annular this year in the Atlantic, correct?
  2. Derecho!
    I have him and ldub on ignore, but unfortunately I still see people stupidly replying to them. It's sort of embarassing how threads here can be totally dominated by out-and-out trolls.
  3. Derecho!
    Honestly I just wonder if the land passage just doesn't end up causing the wind field to expand when it restrengthens in the GOM causing much more of a surge threat down the road.
  4. Derecho!
    Heh...HWRF is down to 935 MB in about 7 hours from now.
  5. Derecho!
    I actually sort of checked out of the Laura threads right after landfall and missed discussion on why its surge was less than forecast... But given enough forward speed, weakening on the shelf waters shouldn't lower the surge from Delta nearly as much as the winds, of course, presuming it's a fairly large storm with a large fetch.
  6. Derecho!
    INVEST 91 has been initiated for the Western Caribbean.. http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2020/al912020/
  7. Derecho!
    There's a huge difference between Western and Eastern Gulf during W Carib Season. Western is Dead. the threat is essentially to the Gulf coast of Florida.
  8. Derecho!
    Ends up barely not coming ashore in S TX and then heads NE to hit Louisiana on the ECMWF.
  9. Derecho!
    So INVEST 90L (Bay of Campeche) has been initiated.
  10. Derecho!
    Umm. No. There is no NHC "projected track" for waves that aren't even invests. Just a blob they scribble on the 5 day outlook. Gosh, it curves a little north.
  11. Derecho!
    I sort of scratch my head that in 2020 people have trouble recognizing they are being trolled.
  12. Derecho!
    Indeed, It never is. It's not included in any of the consensus models used by NHC. Being fairly primitive it has a lot of boguscanes the way the GFS/AVN did. If the goal is to "pick up on activity" but one don't care about boguscanes that don't develop, it's great. It also comes out fairly early and is widely available to look at . Hence all the unwarranted mentions of it.
  13. Derecho!
    Looking at ICON, the CMC, or the NAM for tropical meteorology leaves you with less knowledge about the tropics than you had before you looked at it.
  14. Derecho!
    "Boguscanes" (That's an actual term used in academic papers on models) have been drastically reduced. https://ams.confex.com/ams/99annual/abstracts/687.htm 15-20 years ago the AVN/MRF (predecessor to the GFS) would typically have 2-3 non-existent hurricanes per run in August and September.
  15. Derecho!
    For whatever reason there are a lot of people who consistently are a month off in their perception of a normal Atlantic tropical season peak. It's September 10th, not August 10th.
  16. Derecho!
    Only way to get a really strong hit is hook from south due to SST profiles, though
  17. Derecho!
    Looks like something getting significant heading for Gadsden AL
  18. Derecho!
    I'm going to Idaho; based out of Mountain Home and driving morning of...somewhere. I am leaning Idaho/Oregon Border. Totality path forecast is clear but some clouds forecast for Southern Idaho worry me.
  19. Derecho!
    Yeah, military radars are so far beyond what's in civilian use there's no comparison; while the software has constantly been updated, the hardware of even the SPY-1 Phased Array is ancient technology; AESA (Active Electronically Scanned Array) radars are the latest.. If one had one for weather purposes, using its ability to form multiple beams, I imagine a met could simply sit at a console and draw boxes around multiple cells that he wanted continuously scanned at a very high rate, and all the while a constant full volume scan of the whole area would still be going on.
  20. Derecho!
    Long-term, the combined deaths and dollar damage done by earthquakes in this country are going to make the totals from tornadoes look like a joke (and to a lesser degree, I believe the same is true of hurricanes.) We've just been oddly lucky in the last 200 years. Most of the energy of Northridge was directed into unpopulated mountains. Not saying you're making this argument, but on board after board I've seen people who literally believe that it's impossible for an earthquake to kill more than 100 people unless it's in some smelly Third-World country (how they managed to mentally delete the Kobe quake, I don't know.) We'll see a quake with a death toll in the thousands in this country within 20 years, I suspect.
  21. Derecho!
    I'm not absolutely confident that wasn't exceeded.
  22. Derecho!
    Updated at 12:38 p.m. ET] The death toll from severe weather in Alabama has reached 162, Alabama Emergency Management Agency spokeswoman Yasamie August said Thursday. The overall death toll is as many as 247 people in six states. I think the deaths will beat the Superoutbreak, unfortunately. I used to work part-time for the Census and even in Maryland I'd find these little trailers out in the woods on an unnamed dirt road that had no mailing address; I can't imagine how many of those there are scattered around the Southeast in these damage swaths, where people wouldn't even know to look for anyone.
  23. Derecho!
    CNN Live Blog: Updated at 11:53 a.m. ET] In the DeKalb County, Alabama town of Rainsville, 25 bodies were recovered near one parking lot in the center of town, said Israel Partridge, a local business owner who teaches search and rescue and volunteered to help the Rainsville Fire Department Wednesday night. Rainsville Police Chief Charles Centers confirmed the 25 dead, adding eight were in one trailer park. Many people are unaccounted for, Centers said.
  24. Derecho!
    I know the suburbs of Cincinnati and Louisville were hit in 1974, and Xenia is hardly a small town, but I'd argue the Superoutbreak did a better job of missing medium and large cities than this outbreak. Also, the population in the South has increased and spread out since then.
  25. Derecho!
    Honestly EF3-4 damage actually looks more spectacular at first glance than EF5; you have an actual house or building that you can at least tell was a building but which is utterly flattened. The thing about F5s is that you're left with a foundation slab and the wreckage is 2 miles away.
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