JTA66

I knew we were in trouble a couple of weeks ago when Wes (usedtobe) started posting again in the MA forum. (Just kidding, Wes.) Anyway... I'd be curious to learn what the models have been picking up on or dismissing these past two winters as they keep showing improving patterns in the LR that never get inside 7 days. Maybe it's nothing at all. Maybe is just some sort of model default past 240 hours.

I go back and forth regarding my all time favorite winter -- 1995/96 or 2009/10. Either way, that first week of Feb 2010 is my all time favorite week of winter.

Even though he didn't play here, I have the same feeling I did when I heard the news about Pelle Lindbergh and Jerome Brown.

fwiw... AccuWx still likes the idea of colder air working its way east in Feb with the possibility of snow chances for the east coast. We'll see...

RAY!! Awesome stuff, thanks for taking the time to put it all together.

Very reminiscent of the late 80's/early 90's where we did that stretch from 86/87 to 92/93 with not much to show for it. At least we're not alone, looks like European and Russian weenies are in the same boat as us.

Another winter of always being 10 days away from being 10 days away. No deep dive here, I keep seeing consistent ridging over east Asia and I know that's a bad look for us.

35 weeks till fall! BRING IT!

This. Now what I remember and what actually happened may be two different things, but... Growing up in the 70's and 80's, it seemed every forecast for a sizable storm included the words "blowing and drifting". And I remember it seemed very cold air masses would follow those storms. For instance, if yesterday's storm occurred 40 years ago, it would be in the teens today and everything would be a frozen block of ice. As great as 2009-10 was, I don't recall it being particularly cold after those storms. Even the blizzard of 2016 didn't feature any remarkable cold afterward.

31F...just barely hanging on.

Getting an IP/ZR mix now.

I wasn't paying tremendous attention to it, but one run a little earlier had rain up to the TP. But hey, what's 20 miles among weenies??

Still pinging away. Latest HRRR now shows all frozen NW of 95.

Pingers now, 26F/21DP.

Latest HRRR (fwiw) says north of the TP stays frozen.

Flakes starting up again.

Yep, in that dry slot now, too. 24F/17DP

Wow...ground white after just 5 minutes!!

Squint!! Flakes have started here, 24F/5DP.

Radar seems to be doing a little back building around Baltimore. (Probably just radar hallucinations on my part.)

22F/3DP here. There is that initial band, but it looks like there are lighter returns behind it. Snow or virga? Have to check obs in W Pa. Kamu, let's get that snow pile started today!

I'd be happy with 2"-3". 12z NAM continues to look sleety here after an initial burst of snow. Actually, I'm one of those weirdos that likes a good sleet storm -- put down a layer of ice, top it off with drizzle, then freeze it solid!

I will say I don't recall anyone forecasting an epic winter this year. But most did say something along the lines of, "if nothing else, this winter should be better than last year." To the point you made yesterday Ralph, last winter WAS BETTER than this one so far. If nothing else, we had the November storm. Still, it's only 1/16. I'm not expecting a huge turn around, but maybe we can luck into a few fluke events so it's not a total fail.

Halfway through met winter, so far so good (unfortunately).

Too early to say for sure, but certainly having flashbacks to last year when the really good looks in the LR started to get muted as we moved forward in time. Deja vu all over again!