Boston Bulldog

Slight regression in heights at 60 hours on GFS. This run isn't pushing farther west if I had to guess

GFS builds the ridge out ahead of the system a bit more at 72 hours

Welp, there goes my north trend prediction

Bit of a northward tickle from 12z to 0z on the GFS it appears. The differences upstream over NY state at 18z on Weds are quite shocking between the GFS and even the Euro compared to the NAM. There’s been a very steady and now becoming quite substantial northern trend on AIFS and Euro-AI models over the past couple days. Just look at projections for 2/19 at 0z since 12z on Valentine’s Day. The N-NE extent of QPF has gone from the tristate region to CNE. The GFS has also mirrored these steady ticks over the last 48 hours. Been thinking about medium range overmodeled confluence over recent days, looks like that was indeed the case again. What DOES give me pause on this is the NAM is getting closer to range and is doubling down on the weaker/south idea.

Nice little event, saw just under 2 inches of wet-medium density snow on cold surfaces near Port Washington!

How is this thread not a 5 alarm fire after the 0z GFS!?

Snowy evening in Long Island. Dusting on grass, not sticking elsewhere. Meh Good snow growth though!

Yep pretty decent look, though the slice of latitude that will get substantial snows is pretty thin. Put together a bit of a rambling post in the main thread as to why I think the GFS is too far south

Seen lots of “tenor” talk this year being used to project colder outcomes. Yes I think there is some credence to this year having a distinct trend of modeled ridging regimes getting muted, we’ve seen some gnarly looking torches (early January for example) get cut down into brief thaws and or mixed events. However, there is an additional “tenor” to this season that will likely lead to some SNE disappointment mid-to-late next week: overmodeled blocking and confluence in the medium range. We saw this on the 12/26-27 event, in which confluence remained strong but trended rapidly away from complete suppression in the final 36 hours until flakes started. We also saw blocking relax substantially from medium range projections for the mega-SWFE in January. In both of these cases, the majority of this forum’s SNE contingent benefitted. Even the colder storm during the muted warmup on 1/10-1/11 saw a bit of southerly pushing against confluence. The double barreled low pressure, which was destined to cut without high latitude help, pushed farther north in short range modeling. Despite salvaging the potential cutter 4-5 days out from verification, there was a slight boomeranging that occurred in the final 24-36 hours where confluence relaxed a bit. Thus substantial mixing was introduced into CNE and NNE regions that were previously supposed to remain frozen. It’s possible the midrange blocking relaxing slightly into the short range occurs again, the “tenor” of high amplitude blocks seem to be overmodeled this year. Of course, the implications are that warmth lifts farther north. NNE and CNE seem like a much better spot to be in right now for next week, despite some operational models (GFS) keeping them dry on the initial wave.

I don’t really buy the late week systems getting shredded to the extent modeling currently depicts. Shortwave buckshot within the chaotic synoptic soup is likely causing issues within modeling of vorticity. One packet should consolidate and push farther north/coherent than operational modeling is currently showing, though the blocking does put a cap on the peak latitude

Pretty wild seeing such dramatic positive anomalies over Kamchatka while also knowing the gigantic snowstorm they got out there a few weeks ago. Weather vs climate in a microcosm. Extreme begets extreme

It was pretty clear this was never coming. The setup was a thread the needle act given the rossby wave configuration, widespread synoptic support was never there for such a coup. Models provided a little excitement but the ensembles stood pretty firm. Next! Potential blocky gradient look at the end of next week. Playing with fire a bit but I'll take it for now

Spine crusher ongoing right now, seems focused on the western slopes and peaks along the MRV

That’s gotta be it, fully saturated column but no lift generating freezing fog… suddenly the model thinks there’s lift once it sees the terrain

Yeah looks great for the spine. I really hate how the 3K NAM is essentially useless at elevation. Watch the precip panels for any storm crossing the northern greens, the 3k just lights up the ridgelines with QPF when obviously nothing should be falling. That V shaped signature along the western slopes and into the spine on the GFS is a classic look though.

Huge dendrites drifting down in BOS within this last band, a great way to finish this event

Absolutely nuking in South End

I guess this means KBOS has an outside shot at 24” if they got into the same rates

Here come the easterly low level ocean bands. I can see 3-4 potential bands beginning to set up over the Bay, nosing into Cape Ann, KBOS, South Shore, and Plymouth. Expect echos to begin consolidating around these features I don't expect super high ratios from these, but growth should be better given the lower level nature of the flow

Looks like some lift from 850mb fronto is crashing in to erode the northern extent of the dry slot over CT. IMO this is one of the first signs of how the coastal reflection is beginning to modify the overall structure of the system, which is attempting to consolidate dynamics towards vertical alignment. Looking downstream, BOS and points north should benefit. EDIT: Just missed @ORH_wxman's latest radar update, only further affirms these processes

Higher end totals in EMass will depend on how efficient the ocean enhanced stuff is once this WAA period ends in a couple hours. Given how persistent the fetch has been over the Boston area, I’d say it should produce just fine. I’ve always been a sucker for a good easterly firehose, Mar 2013 remains my all time favorite storm

Best rates of the storm thus far right now

Cars beginning to disappear under drifts

Wind whipping up the snow and blowing it everywhere. Full on Blizzard in the South End

When does Logan release its totals?