Boston Bulldog

Easterly shift is likely due to the center reformation to the E-SE that occurred in the past 24 hours

Pretty impressive convective blow up over the center now. If Melissa can maintain central convection upshear, the storm should take off. We've seen a few organization attempts that have failed, let's see if this one can succeed.

Felt like a March warm sector day with the gusty southwesterlies... now we wait for the cutter's cold front to come crashing through

This storm is a pain in the ass! Hopefully the coastals we get this winter don’t have as many moving pieces

There are many examples of larger tropical cyclones absorbing a nearby smaller tropical cyclone. Pretty fundamental dynamic process

Incredible EWRC presentation on visible satellite this afternoon

As expected, we have our second cat 5 of the season. Really hope we can get recon in there before the next EWRC

Yeah the writing was on the wall pretty quickly this morning, unabated RI was almost a guarantee.@WxWatcher007was correctly calling for this to be the season of the SW Atlantic… once Erin’s cold pool rebounded, that zone has become rocket fuel once again

Humberto is much stronger than a Cat 1 right now, special advisory should be in order before 5pm

Nascent CBs concentrating on the eyewall, warm spot becoming more pronounced on IR. The eye is about to pop out

Shrimp mode on satellite, we likely have a hurricane soon

Mount Ellen alone is a great mountain, and that is an absolute steal. Ellen’s lifts have been in a bit unreliable in recent years, so sometimes there are weekday closures of terrain that can be a bit maddening. Alterra definitely needs to pour some money into the operation. Mad River Glen next door also offers a $180 season pass for college students as well.

Kiko is a beauty. Definitely taking on some annular characteristics

Latest Kiko discussion suggests that post EWRC, Kiko’s environment could support annular characteristics. Not a ton of banding at the moment

Thanks for sharing, you reminded me of the Landsea paper on the Sahel Monsoon, great point!

Lots of talk nationally of what may constitute a recession indicator for our economy. Looking around here, seeing some recession indicators for tropical weather comprehension, weather model fluency, and the understanding of the relationship between time and numerical weather prediction. Specifically 6 threads since Chantal, and only a 50mph fish storm in the subtropics to show for it. What are we doing here? I guess the inactive period truly was inactive, despite loud opposition. Might be controversial, but I don’t care what’s over Chad right now.

Amazing news. SSMIS and similar polar-orbiting scans aren’t perfect, but they are the best Hurricane inner core analysis tool outside of in-situ observations and radar.

After 4 years braving the frozen wasteland of upstate NY, and the tropical island of Manhattan, I am returning to Boston to join the fight against KBOS snowfall observations. Excited to be providing a new data point from just south of the Pru to help give a more accurate understanding of just how much snow actually fell in Boston

One final comment on the subject, just search “Humberto” in the forum search bar and tell me which two posters show up the most

My confidence is steadily growing that Barry Stanton GBP is CurlyHeadedBarrett’s (last year’s bizarre spammer) new account. The frequent abbreviations and copy-pasting of content from elsewhere as a form of bastardized “analysis” is uncanny. The first 3 posts in the entire thread are an excellent microcosm. Regardless, it makes the thread nearly unreadable. On topics that matter, still nothing of note for the Atlantic for a while

After wading through pages of psuedoscience and copy-paste, I have one conclusion... we really need a storm to track

I had never seen Tony’s site before… great stuff!

What a bizarre winter that was, an incredble hot start wiped out by an insane cutter. The meltout in early March felt like armageddon for the ski season and then boom a huge finish with three high elevation bombs (and an eclipse). I don't think we do as well the next time we pull a +8.1, hopefully that's not for a very long time.

Unfortunately conjecture on potential future products and whataboutism does not fix the immediate gap in coverage we have right now going into the heart of Hurricane season. This short sighted decision will degrade forecasting and public safety immediately.

Track accuracy and cone narrowing from the NHC is probably the most noticeable improvement that has taken place in the past 20 years, take a look at what the cone looked like for Katrina when it entered the Gulf. Every bit of resolution for data matters immensely. Microwave data for track accuracy with numerical modeling has also taken gigantic strides. Losing a reliable ability to place the exact center with high resolution (in the absence of in-situ radar and hurricane hunter data) will certainly have repercussions down the temporal dimension of outputs. Intensity still remains the lowest skill forecast variable, which is no surprise given its stochastic nature. It will get so much worse without as frequent “under the hood” looks at the structure, especially as the observed increase in RI events globally continues.