Boston Bulldog

Might be a touch of northerly shear impacting Fay now as well. Distinct southerly shunting of the convection can be seen on IR

I still have a hunch that may be dry air. Look at how the cool spot pinched off from the linear break in the convection present earlier. Now if convection walls off the SE side and that feature remains then I may be mistaken

Some dry air is around the core at present, but with a lack of shear this should be dispelled quickly by new convective bursts. Another tower is going up and rotating around the northerly part of the center, the progression of this convective tower should determine if Fay makes HU status at 11.

I will note this is still a nascent feature. It will be intermittent through this evening

Looks great under the hood and from space. Fay will be a hurricane, if not by 5pm then certainly by 11pm

Bursting convection over the center, I think we have Fay at 5pm. Regardless of final intensity, these systems in the subtropics can be quite well organized and aesthetic looking if they get their act together

Kauai, probably not. Ni'ihau may catch the eyewall though

Took the words right out of my mouth. The quick wrapping of the core has me thinking HU intensity is not off the table yet.

If this thing can fire some diurnal convection it could go boom. Not a small ask with the dry air nearby however

Yeah the GFS short to medium term backoff was expected, though the later window for recovery and potential intensification north of the islands is real. Future Dolly has the cards stacked against it in terms of making it to that pocket however. The shear is very real, as well as decreasing RH. Basin tenor has been very hostile this year, it just seems so much more likely that this fragile system will dissipate with a whimper. Some classic survivor bias within ensemble intensity forecasts down the line, and even that has been reduced as we've seen downtrending across the board today. Most AI ensemble members don't even show a TC anymore!

95L needs to get it's act together fast if it wants steal a name

Better environment for the storms over the Berks to sustain themselves further east than last night’s complex. Couple more hours of solar support help too

Blocky look, but with that complexity we are still far away from any confidence in what that will actually look like in the second half of the week. Higher than normal probs of bad weather I guess

He's been living in The Hock this whole time!?

Torrential downpours in Boston. Tropical rates

Clouds and smoke during peak heating today… take the under on temps?

Bavi failed to go annular, but remains a monster of a storm

Bavi appears to be wrapping up a successful EWRC and is clearing out a massive eye. Watch for a run at sub 900mb with a near annular appearance if trends hold. Visually this thing looks like it wants to pull an Isabel

Wind shift incoming for KBOS. Looks like the new airmass is coming in from the southern boundary rising northward. Because of this I don’t think Logan will see a massive spike like it would if the coastal boundary broke earlier, but 92 could be challenged with the incoming SW winds

Yeah the "west fart" has been happening pretty consistently. Easterlies break down around 4-5pm and a quick spike follows. Easterlies broke down around 2:30 yesterday and KBOS spiked 6F in 5 mins. For enterprising folks looking to make a quick buck, this is a very gameable liquidity pattern on the prediction markets. Easterly winds tamp down temps, degenerate gamblers (or bots) who don't know what they're doing pump money into this suddenly interesting looking bracket of lower temps (higher temp positions gain much better pricing at the same time), then the west wind rug pulls 'em at the buzzer. These easterly winds rarely hold through sundown... dollars are being sold for 70-80c

Can’t lie, it’s been a long time since I’ve been so down on HU activity in the short and medium time scales. SSTs across the Tropical Atlantic, unfavorable subseasonal variability, ripping ENSO conditions, and general early season hostility are slamming the door shut on deep tropical development for the foreseeable future. The most recent lemon is a good example of what we can get until a lucky MJO-CCKW linkup occurs with more encouraging climatology… mediocre subtropical spin ups. Blah

This verified decently well with a slew of tornado warnings and observed tornadoes across the south as Arthur swung through. Obviously it did not intensify. The moisture didn't quite hook up with the major tornado outbreaks across the midwest, though honestly so much deep moisture streaming in could have tempered the storm mode and filled regions of observed discrete tornadic supercell development with slop-vection.

Hey all, despite the cold season being long gone, I can't help but look towards next winter/ski season. I have begun working on a new project for the upcoming season in which I hope to develop and host some unique tools that can be used for forecasting, akin to what is available on the New York State Mesonet: https://nysmesonet.org/ . Geographically this will be smaller though, with a focus on the mountainous zones of NNE. And no, I am not building a mesonet! I have some visualization ideas for overlays that do not yet exist in the open internet, but are essential to orographic forecasting. I am going to keep the core plots and visualizations I have in plans under wraps for now, but I will drop one hint: think of the critical number for a major Spine upslope event... If you have anything that you would like to see, please let me know! I am open to all ideas for products to host on this future website

It's not much, but this lemon is enough to get me thinking about the tropics again. Always fun to start a new season, though I'd expect this one to be a bit rough in terms of overall HU activity. Do yourself a favor and take a look at the westerly wind burst on going in the Nino zone. There is a gigantic pool at the subsurface that is primed to get churned up by downwelling oceanic kelvin waves during any westerly burst events. This Nino is going to get strong very quickly barring an unexpected downtrend. Anyways, take a look at recent Euro depictions of this AOI (partially ex-Cristina) once it gets inland over the SE USA. I spy a major brown ocean effect bias within the Euro that is once again showing up, though GFS and other do manage to retain a somewhat competent vorticity packet while over land. This soon to be invest is going to be a real feature, but a storm essentially RI'ing over land is not a realistic outcome. My thoughts: A depression making landfall in Texas will NOT intensify into a 985mb borderline hurricane over Shreveport (0Z 6/14 Euro begs to differ) . I doubt this thing intensifies on an organizational or SLP sense once inland, rather its injection of moisture and vorticity into the trough will help boost an already volatile severe weather look for mid-week across the Midwest and Ohio Valley.

Friend in Cambridge had a tree fall on their car. Phil in full effect. The winds were pretty violent in the South End, smaller branches down and such