Jump to content

Boston Bulldog

Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    650

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Boston Bulldog

  1. Boston Bulldog
    Yeah the northerly shear is pretty apparent with the restricted outflow on the northern part of the circulation. Compare the extent of outflow on the north side to the south side, huge difference.
  2. Boston Bulldog
    Yep, NHC noted another double wind maxima in the 5am discussion
  3. Boston Bulldog
    This is trochoidal wobbling of the core, as of right now the eye is deviating back to the NW. The greater motion of the storm is as forecast
  4. Boston Bulldog
    While the GFS’s initialization was egregiously high, in a storm with a small intense inner core like this, it will always be playing catchup. Global models simply do not have the granular resolution to initialize a small core correctly, especially in a genuinely extreme RI scenario. Their resolution is far too coarse. Only telescoping models like HAFS have the ability to initialize a storm with Erin’s structure correctly
  5. Boston Bulldog
    Erin is about to put on a show.
  6. Boston Bulldog
    I don’t think the dual blob structure is going to preclude Erin’s RI. The southerly mass of thunderstorms should either dissipate or form into a curved band. Even if it doesn’t, we’ve seen powerful hurricanes with a second convective mass such as Matthew. Honestly Matthew was a fascinating storm, I’m sure there are great papers discussing its structure. Not sure what caused it Very impressed with Erin’s gigantic ventilation right now, the anticyclonic outflow is sprawling across all quadrants
  7. Boston Bulldog
    Erin getting “the look” now. Lots of dry air nearby to potentially slow this trend, but she’s looking ready to take off. Rotating CBs in the eyewall are a dead giveaway. I believe data says the eye is a bit bigger than the pinhole it looks to be on satellite, but IR is looking fierce now
  8. Boston Bulldog
    Bermuda is very well protected by cliffs from the south, also it’s a relatively hilly island. Incredible building codes too. Honestly hurricanes are rarely a big deal there
  9. Boston Bulldog
    I would strongly advise against using telescoping hurricane models, such as HAFS, or the now depreciated HWRF model, until an actual system has formed. These models will key in on spurious or hallucinated rotation to “justify” kicking off the telescoped run, thus will almost always be extremely overdeveloped for nascent systems. Not saying it’s not right, but the odds are stacked against that run, especially for a depreciated model like HWRF
  10. Boston Bulldog
    Thanks for sharing, you reminded me of the Landsea paper on the Sahel Monsoon, great point!
  11. Boston Bulldog
    Lots of talk nationally of what may constitute a recession indicator for our economy. Looking around here, seeing some recession indicators for tropical weather comprehension, weather model fluency, and the understanding of the relationship between time and numerical weather prediction. Specifically 6 threads since Chantal, and only a 50mph fish storm in the subtropics to show for it. What are we doing here? I guess the inactive period truly was inactive, despite loud opposition. Might be controversial, but I don’t care what’s over Chad right now.
  12. Boston Bulldog
    Amazing news. SSMIS and similar polar-orbiting scans aren’t perfect, but they are the best Hurricane inner core analysis tool outside of in-situ observations and radar.
  13. Boston Bulldog
    After 4 years braving the frozen wasteland of upstate NY, and the tropical island of Manhattan, I am returning to Boston to join the fight against KBOS snowfall observations. Excited to be providing a new data point from just south of the Pru to help give a more accurate understanding of just how much snow actually fell in Boston
  14. Boston Bulldog
    One final comment on the subject, just search “Humberto” in the forum search bar and tell me which two posters show up the most
  15. Boston Bulldog
    My confidence is steadily growing that Barry Stanton GBP is CurlyHeadedBarrett’s (last year’s bizarre spammer) new account. The frequent abbreviations and copy-pasting of content from elsewhere as a form of bastardized “analysis” is uncanny. The first 3 posts in the entire thread are an excellent microcosm. Regardless, it makes the thread nearly unreadable. On topics that matter, still nothing of note for the Atlantic for a while
  16. Boston Bulldog
    After wading through pages of psuedoscience and copy-paste, I have one conclusion... we really need a storm to track
  17. Boston Bulldog
    I had never seen Tony’s site before… great stuff!
  18. Boston Bulldog
    What a bizarre winter that was, an incredble hot start wiped out by an insane cutter. The meltout in early March felt like armageddon for the ski season and then boom a huge finish with three high elevation bombs (and an eclipse). I don't think we do as well the next time we pull a +8.1, hopefully that's not for a very long time.
  19. Boston Bulldog
    Unfortunately conjecture on potential future products and whataboutism does not fix the immediate gap in coverage we have right now going into the heart of Hurricane season. This short sighted decision will degrade forecasting and public safety immediately.
  20. Boston Bulldog
    Track accuracy and cone narrowing from the NHC is probably the most noticeable improvement that has taken place in the past 20 years, take a look at what the cone looked like for Katrina when it entered the Gulf. Every bit of resolution for data matters immensely. Microwave data for track accuracy with numerical modeling has also taken gigantic strides. Losing a reliable ability to place the exact center with high resolution (in the absence of in-situ radar and hurricane hunter data) will certainly have repercussions down the temporal dimension of outputs. Intensity still remains the lowest skill forecast variable, which is no surprise given its stochastic nature. It will get so much worse without as frequent “under the hood” looks at the structure, especially as the observed increase in RI events globally continues.
  21. Boston Bulldog
    Yeah this is a huge and totally unnecessary loss. RI forecasting in real time will take a major hit. While there are a few more microwave options potentially available, losing SSMIS will inevitably degrade hurricane forecasting skill. The hits keep coming
  22. Boston Bulldog
    Couldn’t recall if that stat was just a single station or the whole state. I thought whole state, but the anomaly would be crazy high for such a large area. I’m assuming this is BTV or Morristown now that I’m thinking of it. Insane statistic regardless, and pretty surprising that snowfall numbers were still pretty good up high. Lots of elevation dependent events that year
  23. Boston Bulldog
    Hey all, I recall a statistic going around last season that showed from Dec-Feb 2023-2024 Vermont was +7-8F above normal. I’m trying to pull that statistic, but NCEI historical climate reports are only showing me a +6.3F anomaly for Vermont as a whole for February. No info for Jan or Dec. I can pull average temperatures for the Dec-Feb period, but not temperature anomaly. Can someone point me in the right direction where to get the temp anomaly data for VT?
  24. Boston Bulldog
    That’s the summer in Manhattan experience baby!! Not refreshing
  25. Boston Bulldog
    I am so curious what the winds are in this thing right now. Conventional wisdom would say that Erick is bombing out and maybe some insane wind gusts are wrapping around the eyewall. However, I can't help but notice the trochoidal wobbles of the pinhole eye. This circulation isn't fully stacked on a tiny axis centered within the pinhole eye just yet. Rather the eye is wobbling around within a larger local circulation, most likely a EWRC. I trust the 125mph estimate for now
×
×
  • Create New...