Boston Bulldog

Just drove from Greenwich CT to Port Washington on LI over the past 90 mins or so, and the results are excellent for SNE weenies on the NE edge. It was absolutely dumping in CT and Westchester. Approaching the Bronx, the distinct sound of rimed flakes appeared, it was clear warm nose is ferocious and ripping north. By the time I reached the Throgs Neck Bridge, it was all sleet. While planning the drive I only expected a hint of sleet by the time I reached my destination. The forecast is going to bust big time down here. This dead duck is going to come in well north

Gotta wonder how much of the NE edge is virga. Extremely skeptical of those accums in NH. North-south valleys such as the Pioneer Valley may even have some issues too. Extremely cold dry air is going to be advected directly down valley and into the low levels. There are likely to be some maddening discrepancies between radar and reality

NAM looking zonked upstream through 15z tomorrow

Raindrops and 36 in Canton, MA

It is a pretty exotic blocking regime. Over recent seasons we’ve seen general attenuation of modeled features on the map within 48 hours of verification time, and that isn’t just limited to low pressure. The shredder will hold, but recent modeling biases *may* indicate that it is overmodeled

Euro has also shown that when you have less confluence for Friday, the follow up system cuts over the lakes as the trough can’t dig south.

Hah from 6z yesterday to 0z tonight the GFS has shifted low pressure for the 26th from James Bay to the Delmarva. Putrid medium range modeling. Expect whiplash to continue a bit longer

18z GFS is probably the ceiling for this event in terms of intensity and snowfall totals. There would be some powerful zonally translating mid-level snowbands across CNE and NNE with that dynamic look. Verbatim a high end SWFE that successully jumps to the coast to lock in cold air For more snow further south, we would need destructive interference to attenuate the shortwave a bit. A scenario like the Euro is still a good storm, but it's not a nuke like this GFS look.

Tip was spot on about the shortwave grapeshot earlier this month wreaking havoc on the models. Different synoptic setup here, but still a relentless barrage of weakish vorticity packets passing through the region. I don’t think we’re near the final solutions for post-Christmas. That said, the late month signal should coalesce into its final form with more lead time than the medium range events did/will.

Model whiplash in full effect for the 26th. Euro was plowing this thing across James Bay recently

Warned squalls crossing the international border. There's a good amount of zonal motion with this squall, somewhere like Plattburgh or SLK could get an extended period of heavy rates

Yep, falling apart

Big time wishcasting for Boston here, but I’m intrigued by that region of snow back by the Quabbin. Unable to take a look at modeling or dynamics for that feature right now, will that have enough juice to make it east?

Northern Greens appear to be flipping back to snow. Snowing furiously on MRG cams since about 1:30. Coverage looks pretty ugly, south of I-89 took a hit

Sad about this incoming rain. The footage coming out of the Notch, Big Jay etc from this past Friday is as insane as I’ve ever seen out of the East. Hopefully we lock in the base and continue to build

Nice ocean enhanced band about to head into mid-cape

James would always be able to call when these sliders would trend north… the fact he thought every storm passing south would trend north into Harwich notwithstanding

The Dawn Awakening

Cape Cod is in for a memorable couple hours here. Let’s get some thundersnow. Without digging in too much, I think this loop looks a lot like the Valentines Day 2015 blizzard (or at least what I remember it being). Two extremely different systems synoptically!

You know what, it looks at least 4” has verified on the summit. And it’s nuking right now. And the rope just dropped on Paradise with knee deep powder. Touché Jankoski

I think Jankoski typically does a pretty good job (if a but optimistic) for forecasting amounts along the spine. I will say, I do not see any support for this 4-8” call at MRG! Hoping he’s right though

Yep, small tick NW with the 500mb low. Tiny move though

Little ocean effect out by Chatham right now?

Nice looking band! edit: appears as though I linked a dynamic radar that is updating. The band doesn’t look as nice now due to beam blockage

Heard some reports that Jay Peak was a bit wind affected following the squalls on Thursday. That fierce northwest flow deposited a ton of snow downwind into what is usually the deepest locale in New England. I was confident depths would be good, and a thorough exploration on Saturday found conditions that exceeded my expectations. The whole zone is wide open for the taking, though some danger still lurks with a smattering of open drainages poking through. Up high, tight tunnels transition into spacious gladed gullies choked with powder. Bushwacking and bootpacking into a zone famous for it's felonious past yielded a skied off chowder experience. When the forest closes back in on the scar, prior traffic disappears into an extensive menu of deep lines that open up among powder plastered conifers and hardwoods. I've never been to Japan, but I imagine this is as close as the East Coast can get visually. Hard to believe it was December 6th South of I-89 it is a different world. MRG managed to get the single going, but rock skis are an absolute necessity. If you're willing to take a few shots to your skis, conditions were actually pretty ripper up high with tons of funky low tide features. Chute was especially sporty, with a double (or triple) drop that was teed up right under the lift.