Boston Bulldog

It was clear when they reported 6-10” last Tuesday morning (with a bare Stateside cam no less) that they were going to keep the preseason snow totals very fast and loose. Alta’s 2022-23 season total better look out, Jay’s coming for the 900” crown

Looks like Jay’s claiming 34” at the summit for the cycle that ended last Friday (Based off them reporting 21” over the last 48 hours). Coverage up there was great on Saturday, but I would subtract 10-12” from that for sure. It’s not like it was 3 feet of blower that condensed down, the snowpack was dense and surfy with little room for compaction. Love Jay but these reports seem to get increasingly ridiculous. 55” in a drift up against the Tram House perhaps?

Surfy and supportive, Jay was firing today. Never thought I would see the chutes under the tram be in play in mid-November (albeit with a sharky entrance). Tram ridge hot-laps were excellent all morning.

Robust 850mb vortmax about to collide with the spine. Solid upward tick in BTV accumulation forecasts for tomorrow. 5-9” on the point and clicks for favored summits during the daytime period

First flakes in Downtown Boston. Hard to even call this a flurry, just a few stragglers making it down

Classic blocked flow this AM. Substantial upslope into the west slopes on radar. Looks like echos stop at the top of the spine, is this beam blockage? No! Clear skies over the Stowe base right now as shown on the webcam, but the eastern extent of the snow showers is very visible over the top of the spine. As froude numbers increase this will push eastward.

Back edge swiftly moving north through central VT, maybe up to another inch left for locations north of I-89?

Yeah nice 850mb fronto over Capital District and moving north

Is blocked flow keeping spine QPF lower than the valley? Hoping more of this can creep over and onto the immediate leeward slopes

https://www.weather.gov/btv/froude The paper by BTV NWS linked above is a fantastic overview of the role the froude number plays in orographic precipitation. When cyclonic flow sets up over the mountains, flakes are flying somewhere

The developing pack is definitely taking a hit, but in high elevations it should survive the warm up. An extended upslope period is still showing up in guidance and it looks like there will be 2 (or 3) vorticity packets moving through the area through the end of next week to shake the upslope snowglobe. Hopefully soon we're talking about Froude numbers and critical flow, when those terms enter the conversation it's always a sign of a great pattern.

Wolf's stat did pique my interest. Sure enough, ice mass is up in 2025 for Antarctica, but looking at the data over time, I can't see anything saying we aren't melting more and more down there. Context matters, as do proper data analysis methods to properly communicate results.

It's these sweeping declarations of ideological talking points in complete ignorance of the painstaking data processes, paleoclimatological advancements, and plentiful data sourcing that goes into these datasets that make it hard for me to believe that these are good-faith arguements backed by substantiated evidence. The data for the Keeling Curve is well documented. The methodologies behind datasets demonstrating trends in temperature and CO2 on the scale of hundreds of thousands of years are the direct result of the leaps and bounds paleoclimate research has experienced in recent decades. All of this is well documented, verified through basic atmospheric chemistry, and published through rigorous peer review. But why dig into something that could potentially be in the opposite of my world view when I can simply say "nuh-uh", "skewed" (whatever that means), or "rigged".

Graupel/rain showers south of town currently refracting beams of sunlight just outside the office

Regardless of if Sunday Night's event is a snower or cuts west, the cold and moist cyclonic flow looks consistant and filled with potential subtle shortwave features next week. Still a ways to go until confidence increases substantially, but if the pieces align correctly a real solid upslope signature may emerge under the incoming trough.