Boston Bulldog

Brief burst of snow in Central NH. Flipped back to plain rain in New London. 32.9

If it happens, it will not happen like that

LBSW

The cold trend continues at 0Z tonight for Saturday night. Net gainer for NNE at this point thanks to the emerging front ender. Don’t look at the cracked out NAM coastal run however, that seems like too much to ask for

Snow globe shaken in Boston. Big fluffy flakes floating upwards by the office window

Great to have your obs from the middle of the Upper Valley radar hole! Probably the worst area of radar coverage in a New England region of considerable population

Very dramatic difference

Paul operates on a different level than most. Was lucky enough to lead write a couple papers in collaboration with him... let's be honest the concept and research was fully driven by his vision. Come in with a question, and he'd counter back with ideas bouncing off the walls and 5 PhD disseration level questions

My advisor from graduate school has a fantastic visualizer of the seasonal cycle of the MJO its associated rossby wave patterns. Very easy to see the troughing over the eastern CONUS in Phase 7 out to day 30: https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html

Yeah that failed handoff is really weird and kinda implausible. The atmosphere likes to stray towards efficient energy conservation, the ping ponging of strengthening between the primary and coastal reflection doesn’t really reflect that principle. I would err towards the primary remaining the more cohesive entity given the modeled dynamics, at least for what the 0Z GFS spits out

Can’t let this cyclone get wound up even a tad or it will cut. However if it gets shredded up into a SWFE, the weekend system is going to set up an intense boundary somewhere. North of that boundary will snow. A warm outcome is still the most likely path forward IMO given pattern fundamentals, but can’t deny the trends today as we emerge into a new time-scale paradigm for the period. It’s no longer looking like a huge ask to turn the tide here, at least for NNE

0Z GFS continues the trend big time with a SFWE look that halts the warm front’s advance northward. Good to see deterministic guidance showing a cold look is possible.

Interesting trend with the warm system late next week. Some OP runs had clean warm sectoring up to the St Lawrence Valley, now the mix line has collapsed substantially south. Honestly I was initially hoping for this thaw to be potent enough to open up a window of soft snow in the Presidentials alpine next weekend. If it's going to get warm, why not prime up some big mountain terrain? Suddenly dreams of spring skiing under gusty SW winds have shifted back to winter mode with hopes of salvaging surfaces on VT honey holes. If we continue to trend to a more forceful push of colder air undercutting the ridge, a decent front ender could be possible OR the longitudinal gradient sags south during the storm (if we have a weaker cyclone and more overrunning look). I'm not declaring an early Feb 2022 like event which neutralized a warm longwave pattern in the Greens, but the plausibility of colder solutions is better than it was yesterday. Either way, I hope the pattern goes all in on either a quick and clean warm spell next weekend, or somehow keeps hammering the cold trend. Getting stuck in the middle seems like a very undesireable scenario

Data error for the Mansfield stake? Reading is down to 29”

Both Feb 2013 and Jan 2015 were modeled to have some sort of stall and loop. While the stalls never materialized, even if they took place the 50” spots would be extremely localized. You’d need to maximize both the initial extreme banding (i.e what was over CT in Feb ‘13) and a CCB type element of the storm, and THEN cash in on the stall via some sort of deformation or decaying mid level banding training over a thin slice of longitude amid what would likely be a shredded occluded mess of a precip shield. Like Will said, for a storm with more widespread biblical totals you’d need a predecessor phase of the event like the overrunnning he mentioned.