Boston Bulldog

Just drove from Greenwich CT to Port Washington on LI over the past 90 mins or so, and the results are excellent for SNE weenies on the NE edge. It was absolutely dumping in CT and Westchester. Approaching the Bronx, the distinct sound of rimed flakes appeared, it was clear warm nose is ferocious and ripping north. By the time I reached the Throgs Neck Bridge, it was all sleet. While planning the drive I only expected a hint of sleet by the time I reached my destination. The forecast is going to bust big time down here. This dead duck is going to come in well north

Gotta wonder how much of the NE edge is virga. Extremely skeptical of those accums in NH. North-south valleys such as the Pioneer Valley may even have some issues too. Extremely cold dry air is going to be advected directly down valley and into the low levels. There are likely to be some maddening discrepancies between radar and reality

NAM looking zonked upstream through 15z tomorrow

Raindrops and 36 in Canton, MA

It is a pretty exotic blocking regime. Over recent seasons we’ve seen general attenuation of modeled features on the map within 48 hours of verification time, and that isn’t just limited to low pressure. The shredder will hold, but recent modeling biases *may* indicate that it is overmodeled

Euro has also shown that when you have less confluence for Friday, the follow up system cuts over the lakes as the trough can’t dig south.

Hah from 6z yesterday to 0z tonight the GFS has shifted low pressure for the 26th from James Bay to the Delmarva. Putrid medium range modeling. Expect whiplash to continue a bit longer

18z GFS is probably the ceiling for this event in terms of intensity and snowfall totals. There would be some powerful zonally translating mid-level snowbands across CNE and NNE with that dynamic look. Verbatim a high end SWFE that successully jumps to the coast to lock in cold air For more snow further south, we would need destructive interference to attenuate the shortwave a bit. A scenario like the Euro is still a good storm, but it's not a nuke like this GFS look.

Tip was spot on about the shortwave grapeshot earlier this month wreaking havoc on the models. Different synoptic setup here, but still a relentless barrage of weakish vorticity packets passing through the region. I don’t think we’re near the final solutions for post-Christmas. That said, the late month signal should coalesce into its final form with more lead time than the medium range events did/will.

Model whiplash in full effect for the 26th. Euro was plowing this thing across James Bay recently

Warned squalls crossing the international border. There's a good amount of zonal motion with this squall, somewhere like Plattburgh or SLK could get an extended period of heavy rates

Yep, falling apart

Big time wishcasting for Boston here, but I’m intrigued by that region of snow back by the Quabbin. Unable to take a look at modeling or dynamics for that feature right now, will that have enough juice to make it east?

Northern Greens appear to be flipping back to snow. Snowing furiously on MRG cams since about 1:30. Coverage looks pretty ugly, south of I-89 took a hit

Sad about this incoming rain. The footage coming out of the Notch, Big Jay etc from this past Friday is as insane as I’ve ever seen out of the East. Hopefully we lock in the base and continue to build