FXWX

I rarely post, but thought I will throw my 2-cents in for the Monday / Tuesday event. I would run with an earlier onset for SNE based on my experience with these setups. Secondly, at this point in time, I would toss or at least not focus too closely on the modeled qpf maps right now; not only the snowfall junk maps; take qpf maps and put them aside for now. If the large scale Euro features end-up close to verifying; higher qpf amounts will verify further west than now modeled. Those 700 & 850 depictions and inflows are not going to keep big totals pinned across eastern SNE; 700 & 850 inflows certainly suggest to me that you should not under-play heavy totals pushing further into western CT & southeastern NY.

Me! A private met, who's usually flies under the radar and rarely post here... Will occasionally tweet, but not a lot; last night's response to Kev's tweet, which I obviously misinterpreted, led to a bit of back and forth and inspired a mention about who I am on here, so thought i would fill in the blanks. Snow and/or rain totals from Burlington, CT (BOX PNS products) are usually mine. We are building a new house on the highest elevation lot in Hartford County (~1150 feet) and I will likely post more given the snow & wind gust climatology of that area. I've been a consulting met for almost 40 years and my company name is Fax-Alert Weather Service. Started company when fax machines were just becoming common in businesses and it was the primary mode used to transmit updates and alerts to my clients. Company name (Fax-Alert Weather) was based on mode of communication to clients at the time I started business. That mode of contact ended when email, text alerts and web services became the normal, but I kept the name since I had no desire to change business registration, IRS filings and the name recognition with all my clients. Currently, consult with 85 CT/NY school districts, several town DPW operations, snow removal and landscaping businesses, as well as 4 Energy Associations (Oil / Propane dealers), Wachusett's Ski Resort and Aubuchon Hardware Company. Also, deal with numerous insurance companies and law firms for forensic services. Check in occasionally to see what some mets one here (ORH, Coastal, Tip, Ryan H, OceanStWx to name a few) are thinking; also great to see younger generation guys like Wiz getting more involved and more experienced. Find inputs from others like Ginx, 40/70, yourself, and yes, even Kevin, worthy of following. Know Ryan H well and consider Ryan and Bob Maxon the best media duo in CT; the viewing public in CT is blessed to have them on air; especially during severe t-storm outbreaks... Also, nice to see my good friend Walt Drag posting more and more; about as good as it gets. Been around long enough that nothing really surprises me anymore; be it balmy Xmas periods, miserable springs or dud severe weather seasons... looks like I've more than answers the who is …. question, lol, but just in case I piss someone off again, everyone will know who I am... Stay safe and have a wonderful holiday season; don't worry about the snow pack; more is a-coming!!!

The thing I would be wary of is assuming the modeling (bufkit) is 100% correct in terms of mixing? Plus in these types of only hint of convective elements would be needed to generate big issues; especially for eastern CT...

You mean folks are supposed to read and assess scientific reasoning and not just look at the pretty pictures? That would take too much time; lol

Gravity waves...

Many towns will continue with normal snow days and then adjust if snow day needs get too great; also for a 2-day event many will do a snow day for day 1 and then remote learning for day 2.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/

Nice... I like the look and style... Nothing online the looks anywhere near as nice...

I sent overall all 3 with amounts and elevations; right now only 3.5 listed...

Hey Walt; crazy variation across western Hartford County; only a slushy cover at my old location at 300', our current location 3.5" at 700' - meanwhile at under-construction new house at 1140' measured 6.0"... Hope you are well; talk soon.

Where did you get that particular snow stick???

All ens teles are available on WxBell and/or Weathermodels.us; both which are paid for subscriptions... Weathermodel.us is the most reasonable. I need to view them on a regular basis for my work so the fee is worth it... Whenever you want to see them just ask...

I am well aware of the history of over-done max wind gusts by modeling, but if you have been closely following the short-term record (past year) of the euro ever since last fall, it has been remarkably good with at least 4 significant events... Maybe it craps the bed this time around, but it deserves to be taken seriously, as far as I am concerned... especially when it has multiple runs with these numbers...

Steve; where are you seeing the clip from East Haven HS turf field video? Do you have a link?

Douche away; I'm a big boy, I can take it; lol. I have read enough of your post to know you have a great handle on the dynamics of the atmosphere. Your statements about sfc/upper air pattern analysis versus modeled frontal & sfc pressure center positions are never taken lightly by me. It is something I try to constantly remind myself about. There are many times I just look at the sfc & upper air analysis and physically draw what that look should lead to in terms of feature placements. I do think the pattern layout described in your post above certainly is not one usually favorable for a warm front to bodily rush across SNE. But skies have really cleared out of all most all of CT, as well as southeastern NY, temps are rising quickly across western CT, but the rich dew points are still sitting down across portions of eastern PA/NJ. Certainly not a classic summertime warm front passage? Southeastern NY and western / southwestern CT were my main concern area and that continues. The increasing sunshine across CT may open the door to the threat migrating into central CT, as well as the greater Springfield area, but dew points really need to get going. Noted SPC is yet to issue a MCD for this afternoon, which tells me they are not as bullish right now, even though their updated outlook remains mostly unchanged.

I told you yesterday to never trust a warm front's modeled position. This had a pretty solid cold/cool air mass sitting across eastern New England and it should not be shocking it is struggling to blast northeast across SNE. That being said, still an interesting setup and you cannot dismiss some of the basics in play with this event; just yet. Could still turn into a solid northwest flow event, but this has almost always looked like a southeastern NY / west-southwestern CT deal. The question now is can we destabilize enough on the back side of the warm front or will cloud debris put a nail in the instability coffin. Things can and often do change quickly and anyone dismissing the possibility of this becoming a nasty event for western CT should wait a bit.