FXWX

Interesting phrasing; "first few weeks of January"??? Didn't know any month could have "first few weeks"!!!!

No... At least with those first 2 options, st least you get some actual weather!

5.0 here in Burlington at 1140'... just saw a great pic from one of my clients with 8" in Winsted...

And that would put you right into the range the vast majority of forecasts had... 3 is fine with me...

Agree...

It appears the best combo of dynamics & moisture may have peaked across CT? Visibilities coming up across the region. Still several more hours of snow to go, but best accumulation rates "maybe" over?

3 locations in Burlington, CT reporting trees and wires down... Highest gusts so far at my house is 43 mph!!!

Exactly

I agree... I'm not absolving anyone from blame... Sometimes it's a combination of issues, poor forecast decision, lack of threat awareness, or bad decision making process... That's why I love the overly cautious DOT groups... Obviously something was wrong with how it was handled this morning in Dendrite's area.

Just my 2 cents... I deal with some DOT crews, none in that area. Some have private mets, not all. I find the range of how proactive the person in charge of sending crews out is can vary from incredibly proactive (pretreating when there is even a very minimal threat) to very laid back and not wanting to pretreat or send crews out until they actually get calls of trouble from state or local police reports. The private Mets don't make the call, the decision is always with the DOT supervisor. I can tell you from experience that can be maddening. No matter what the NWS issues, the call is the supervisor's to make. I can't tell you how many times I've recommended pre-treatments and heard comments about budgets or the desire to wait until police call! On the other hand I have clients that pre-treat at any hint of an issue. Of course then they get calls for wasting money from the public....

This times 1000!!!!

Have a great holiday Kev... Enjoy the family... The years just fly by... After 40 years, I have zero interest in changing the name; haven't faxed in 20 years but in no mood to change all the business paper work, email addresses, etc. Hard to believe when I started the business, faxing was just starting to be used for realtime communication... Stay well... Don't worry, December will turn out just fine... Lol

I good therapist would tell you to walk away from the negative force... One you engage, he's got ya... Lol

Yes it does!

The inconsistency is baffling... no reason for it...

lol

My message to the energy groups I deal with has been the following: the cold second half of Nov. would moderate at month's end and early December would see the continuation of the moderating trend, but not a blow torch pattern like some of the most recent Decembers. While the Pacific will go through an ugly look for a bit during early December, I think some weak to moderate -NAO, or just some higher than normal heights across NAO sector will help keep Northeast moderation during early December in check; moderation yes; extended torch no; at least not on the scale of some recent Decembers. I think the pattern post from about December 10th onward to trend at least normal with the door opening back up for at least periods of somewhat colder than normal conditions. Right now, I think hype about December being lost are way off base. It may not be a December of yore, but second half will be decent, just not historic...

Given the very good snow making temperatures, in general, they would actually prefer a frontal passage with a mainly dry weekend...

Heavy sleet in Burlington, CT... Actually quite impressive...

PXL_20221116_002200959.TS.mp4 Snow flying in Burlington, CT

The Dark Web!

Note there is no quantification of what "winter weather" risk entails... Is it a coating, a couple of inches, a foot of snow??? Or is just some flakes in the air a a few pellets bouncing around? Meaningless graphic in me eyes...

While I agreed with general timing of the pattern transition, also thought it would likely trend later as we got closer. That is obviously not the case. The one caution I would urge though is be wary of how firmly New England gets into the solidly colder than normal zone. It is very common during La Niña events for the core of the cold be anchored well west of New England. The euro ens (above) and other products clearly show this tendency. While sitting on the eastern edge of the cold shield could allow for an active start to the winter storm season for us, it could limit our early season snow potential, as favored storm track could be through or west of New England??? Just a thought… I’d like to see the core of the cold anomaly positioned over the Midwest / Great Lakes region.

Might be my favorite quote ever about using 10 mb level... Lol... Actually put a smile on my face...

Yes... And I'm sure we are leaving out several other favorite bones to pick...