FXWX

7 hours ago, Modfan2 said:

Latest wind gust from BOX

 

 

Can you send link to this page at BOX... cannot locate it for some frigg'n reason...

Quite the snow burst for portions of central and eastern PA for the past few hours...

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It seems like right near and then after the front with SW winds is when it goes wild. SE and SW wind direction always do most damage to trees since they are used to the NW winds . Isaias great example of that 

Probably need to revisit 2nd highlighted wind potential period; window probably opens up for that by very late morning into early / mid afternoon period.  Models will waffle a bit with each run but overall signal has been pretty steady.  In these setups a degree or two change in the vertical profile can make all the difference between a pretty run of the mill event and a widespread issue.

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This seems like a special one .

For CT, I've hit the predawn (2 to 5 am) period pretty hard and then again the late afternoon early evening period.

2 hours ago, Cold Miser said:

A year ago last July we had a very short span of quick gusts...Under 15 minutes.  It only took one 50mph gust to break the right tree branches on to the right power lines for us to lose power for almost one week. 

Yep...

57 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ok, thanks John for the info. Good stuff. We’ll see how it plays out. 
 

I think more my point was..the winds don’t verify as forecast most times inland. Maybe they do this time. 

Always a crap shoot with southerly or southeasterly potential high wind events; many don't verify but as a forecaster you have layout the risks, but without hyping.  Give me a gradient driven northwest flow event anytime.  I wouldn't be shocked if the southwest / west strong wind later Friday ends up stealing the thunder from the south/southeast wind threat period.

28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

A gust or two of that is meh. If it’s sustained and you get gusts on top of that, that’s diffferent.  Most of the winds were in the 40’s.  
 

Point is, the winds almost always disappoint here way more than not. I’ll take the under being inland every time on something like this, and be correct 99% of the time.   Been disappointed too many times buying in on this stuff. So I’m expecting it to be nothing that impressive.
 

If I’m wrong,  I’ll be the first to admit it, and say it delivered. 

I think lots of folks have a miss understanding of what wind gust level causes damage and power issues across SNE.  No one is suggesting we are looking at 55 mph sustained winds.  But if any particular location hits 50 to 55 mph gust, damage will occur.  It may not be widespread but there will be damage to trees in the 50-55 mph gust area.  The question is how widespread will 55 mph gusts be.  Obviously, if an area sees multiple 50 to 55 gusts, the amount of tree damage will increase.  Also, 50-55 mph gusts occurring at tree top level is all you need.  That wind speed is rarely verified at ground level.  The point is 50 to 55 mph wind gust at tree top level is not meh in this region.  Even one 55 mph gusts is going to produce at least some damage in the area of occurrence.  The question is how frequent are 50+ mph gusts and is the coverage of the 50-55 gusts isolated, scattered or widespread.

17 minutes ago, weathafella said:

We almost never lose power but I'm concerned with lng (to fuel electricity in New England) supply chain this winter and have been considering a Generac.  Total peace of mind whether you're home or away from home.  Haven't pulled the trigger yet.  

Pull the plug... Have a 21k Generac... Wonderful peace of mind... Has come in handy over the past 10 years... Don't regret the purchase at all... 

2 hours ago, Modfan2 said:

BOX wind forecast 

 

I've lost the link to this product; would you be kind enough to send url?  Don't see the link on main BOX page?

21 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

New Years to first few weeks of January should feature record warmth

Interesting phrasing; "first few weeks of January"??? Didn't know any month could have "first few weeks"!!!! 

56 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Is it wrong that I'd rather a hugger/cutter than a suppressed storm that crushes DC?

No... At least with those first 2 options, st least you get some actual weather!

2 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

3.9

5.0 here in Burlington at 1140'... just saw a great pic from one of my clients with 8" in Winsted...

50 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Hmmm…have 2” here and if I can grab another inch to bring it to 3” for a total I’ll be happy. 

And that would put you right into the range the vast majority of forecasts had... 3 is fine with me...

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This also appears like it was in faster and Will be out faster of most places than  modeled 

Agree... 

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Snowing moderately very close to 2” so far here. 

It appears the best combo of dynamics & moisture may have peaked across CT?  Visibilities coming up across the region.  Still several more hours of snow to go, but best accumulation rates "maybe" over?

3 locations in Burlington, CT reporting trees and wires down... Highest gusts so far at my house is 43 mph!!!

27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I used to do DOT forecasts all the time….and I had the same experience. It varies greatly by town. Some town DOTs want to know about every flake of frozen precip that falls and others are like “meh, if I can’t plow it or it’s not an epic ice storm, I don’t really care”. 

Exactly 

35 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Seems to make sense . I may not have articulated it well but I was more critical of DOT and what gets them moving . 

I agree... I'm not absolving anyone from blame... Sometimes it's a combination of issues, poor forecast decision, lack of threat awareness, or bad decision making process...  That's why I love the overly cautious DOT groups...  Obviously something was wrong with how it was handled this morning in Dendrite's area.

53 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I deleted my comment bc im not sure how the folks that treat the roads make their decisions  but it’s 2022 on Black Friday and there needs to be much more common sense forecasting or at least coordinating with highway treatment.
 

There were no advisory issued in the overnite update when it’s was clear  would be minor icing bc the Qpf was too low to qualify  . A advisory was issued at i think 830 after the ...issues.  so i don’t know if DOT gets their info from NOAA Or private forecasts but if NOAA they seem to benefit from  **another winter advisory specific to minor ice on highways** since people drive cars and it doesn’t matter if .10 or .25 accretion isn’t met to make roads unsafe and need treatment and alert public 

Just my 2 cents... I deal with some DOT crews, none in that area.  Some have private mets, not all.  I find the range of how proactive the person in charge of sending crews out is can vary from incredibly proactive (pretreating when there is even a very minimal threat) to very laid back and not wanting to pretreat or send crews out until they actually get calls of trouble from state or local police reports.  The private Mets don't make the call, the decision is always with the DOT supervisor.  I can tell you from experience that can be maddening.  No matter what the NWS issues, the call is the supervisor's to make.  I can't tell you how many times I've recommended pre-treatments and heard comments about budgets or the desire to wait until police call!  On the other hand I have clients that pre-treat at any hint of an issue.  Of course then they get calls for wasting money from the public....

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m not sure why people are so upset about a relaxation in a timeframe when our snow climo is garbage even in the best circumstances.

People should be happy things look to be turning a corner towards the second week of December when climo chances increase

This times 1000!!!!

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Keep on faxing in 22 John! Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours 

Have a great holiday Kev... Enjoy the family... The years just fly by... After 40 years, I have zero interest in changing the name; haven't faxed in 20 years but in no mood to change all the business paper work, email addresses, etc.  Hard to believe when I started the business, faxing was just starting to be used for realtime communication... Stay well... Don't worry, December will turn out just fine... Lol

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I can’t…..

I good therapist would tell you to walk away from the negative force... One you engage, he's got ya... Lol

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's a 1960s look.

Yes it does!

45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am so sick of the inconsistency with respect to snowfall measuring.....I had my 31.5" jack tossed in March 2018 after employing the same, exact technique and they took depth measurements, instead. But when it comes to a lake effect circle jerk, they all derobe to the big 22.7" discrepancy between max depth and 6 hourly swipes.

I had a 6.5" gap and it was tossed.

What a joke.

 

The inconsistency is baffling... no reason for it...

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

December not historic?  Another winter month lost….started with September.

lol