FXWX

I am not nearly as conservative you are Wiz, but your concerns are valid... Sometimes we tend to look for more reasons for it to snow and not emphasis any negative aspects... I'm ok with 1 to 2 north of the 84 corridor but have been wary about hitting +2-inch amounts too hard... 2 to 3 southwards into the coastal plain with 4-inch spots. I might be under-playing fluff factor, but need to see fronto zone come northward a bit before I become more bullish across northern third of CT. Slight norward shift would be enough for me to become more bullish...

Agree...

I remain cautious and quite conservative anywhere along and north of the I-84 corridor; a general 1.5 to 2, with low pop of iso 3"? Cape area looks good; 3 to 5, spot 5+; and a general 2 to 3 with isolated 4's across southern CT; maxing out in New London County...

Easy is not a word I've used frequently the last few years... I do like the tight low/mid level thermal gradient, and know if we can force enough convergence into that gradient, it would produce a decent snowfall? But I need to see consistent guidance trending that way. If I do, I'll move from a general 1 to 2 to a call to a 2-to-4-inch forecast, biased east and southeast. I'll be working from the Cape this weekend, so I expect to see snow even if CT underperforms.

I see you're using the 40 to 1 ratio rule!

Humor...That's all we've got left...

Makes perfect sense since they both ended up in the Mid-Atlantic!

I think the 18z was ready early this evening Will be interesting to see how quickly Ncep releases it starting on 17th?

Probably late to the news but didn't know Polar Wx added new AI-GFS; GraphCast - GFS model, and the NOAA version goes operational Dec. 17th... Its 18z run looks similar to Euro products for Sunday... Link below... https://t.co/ckQkMydRHT

PXL_20251203_152703838.RAW-02.ORIGINAL.dngPXL_20251203_152703838.RAW-02.ORIGINAL.dngPXL_20251203_152703838.RAW-02.ORIGINAL.dngPXL_20251203_152703838.RAW-02.ORIGINAL.dngNice early winter look from the high terrain areas of Burlington CT; on the Litchfield \ Hartford County border!

Ended with 4" here. Coating up with ice now

Come on, strap those big pants on... Mod/Hvy snow here... warming across western Fairfield county has been tedious with solid snow band there...

Keep posting your obs... very useful for me

Crazy things known to happen in Lit Cty... lol