FXWX

Yes... 2 years ago we had folks dying in their cars or trying to walk to safety during the well predicted Christmas week western NY snow bliz... The historic western NC flooding from Helene was incredibly well predicted, but folks decided to stay! Even the tragic TX bible camp flooding was well predicted and warned, but adults did not react appropriately! Forecasts and warnings are better then ever, but that doesn't mean the general public will always plan and act appropriately.

Can't disagree... The infrastructure recovery might be a massive issue...

While all of the points made are valid, unless I missed posts, I didn't see posts claiming this would have the same social impacts of the 78... Of course it won't and no one I know was claiming it was, at least that I am aware. In fact, you can argue that all of the historic storms we talk about, be it blizzards, hurricanes, tornado outbreaks, etc will not have the similar social impacts given today's technology and communication systems. Will a 1938 hurricane every happened again? Yes, but it won't hit with little or no warning and recovery time frames will be shorter. So when folks make comparisons to historic events, I think most know full well today's snow removal capabilities are light years ahead of where the were in 1888 and/or 1978. As Will stated this won't nearly be as long in terms of snow duration. Are there some atmospheric features that have similarities to 78, as well as other Kocin storms? Yes. Are they identical NO, but they are interested to note.

Time to take a seat and pour a glass of your favorite beverage!

Right out of the Kocin playbook

Explode the system.

Watch that jet streak rounding the bend!!!!

Some of my most memorable winter storms began like this; low-level onshore easterly flow moistening up the atmosphere with light snow breaking out well in advance of the main event; I remember the Feb. 1969 storm starting like this; hours of light and intermittent snow, somewhat meaningless snow; but it was tipping off the fact that moisture was not going to be an issue.

Not a trolling inquiry, but do you now think this is (just) a major event and a high end occurrence? Do you think snow totals should be cutback region wide, along with dropping wind gust levels?

Yes...

I lived in Bristol in 78... Your parents were correct; tough measurement due to wind, but I posted 22". Drifting was amazing and town payloaders were used to open our street 3 days later. And yes, like all of these storms, there were relatively low amounts not terrible far away. Parts of the Berks recorded only single digit totals.

The comparisons are decent; with the explosive deeping of the 500 mb trough, intense 850 low passing south of SNE a bit further south than in 78, great easterly moisture inflow north of the 850; both have classic "S" shaped 850 isotherms as well as signs slowing down and attempt at capture of surface system. The sfc layout shows the classic banana shaped high with the surface low embedded same as 78; the 78 high was ~1048 mb, this one is a bit stronger ~ 1051 mb; almost exact locations. So, overall, similar sfc and upper level layouts; not identical, but pretty dam close. Sfc and upper level features are a tad further south this time.

As you should... Maybe kick the dog while you're at it... Lol

It does get to crazy in here... If folks think the modeling will stay stable run to run with the incredible multi-level dynamics in play, they are dreaming. So the max snow zone shifts around a bit from run to run? Has the big picture canvas changed? Are the jet fields and orientation significantly different? No, no and no! Has the inflow potential changed to suggest lower qpf? Has the potential for big meso banding features disappeared? Has the unstable look to the sounds changed? Again, no, no and no. Does that mean everyone gets a perfectly forecasted huge totals... No, because it rarely does. Go study some of the snowfall totals from Kocin storms, including Feb 78... There is more varibility than most want to admit. So relax and enjoy the storm whether you get 5" or 25"... I see nothing uniquely different with this setup compared to other true biggies. If it doesn't work out for your particular location, it's just the reality of a very complex atmosphere, not because of bad modeling.

What are the Mets (and others) in on here thinking about the general onset time for I-495 corridor from Haverhill area to the Cape?