FXWX

Lots of backing down by 00z model runs...

Oh, I like the higher end potential for a variety of reasons, I'm just noting the Euro is relatively low-grade compared to much of the guidance. I would and am hitting this potential hard regardless of the Euro. But I always look to see why a particular piece of modeling is not onboard with an event when most others are? But as we all know, small deviations in the pattern can screw up high-end wind event! Caution is always advised 36 hours out?

Out of all the 12z guidance runs, Euro looks to be the least bullish? At least for interior SNE...

That's the deal... 1200' plus will do it.

51 mph gust here!

1,000%

Can she be gone if she was never here?

Yep

Lol... Sooner or later there has to be a major bust in our favor... I love Kevin... He goes all in and one of these days he will be able to spit in our faces...

Agree... And yes! Would love to track a one in every 20 - 30 year storm...

While it is always fun to fantasize about extreme events, this setup is still a long shot for New England! Signal for a violent Atlantic system is strong, but right now I think the chance it has direct impacts for most of the Northeast is low. It is not like the ensembles show a clustering into New England. The Canadian has always been good for weather porn, but rarely leads the way. After a while, chasing the one or two outlying ensemble members gets old. I would love to see a late October monster hybrid, but until I see a wholesale change in where the main ensemble cluster sets up, I would recommend keeping expectations very much on the low side. Although if I were living in NS I'd keep close tabs.

What a worthless piece of fake long range forecasting... If it were as simple as using sst anomalies to predict the winter jet stream pattern, every winter forecast would be perfect! It's all modelology with no meteorology. All click bait; headline stating a brutal winter lies ahead, but almost zero support discussed in the video. So typical of today's social media driven weather industry.

Great sunset tonight in Burlington CT...PXL_20250929_224815675.RAW-02.ORIGINAL.dngPXL_20250929_224815675.RAW-02.ORIGINAL.dngPXL_20250929_224815675.RAW-02.ORIGINAL.dng

I'm talking about upper climo... Pattern aloft has to have a semblance of a known pattern that has in the past allowed for a landfall? We can certainly have some odd tracks when 2 circulations interfere with each other. But their tracks still will be controlled by the upper levels.

100%. Agree... As we have said a million times, there is a well established large scale climo pattern for a New England hit! Once again this not it! Show me a past storm that made landfall with our current pattern several days out? Every winter folks love to chat about how a pattern is favorable or not favorable for a Kocin storm, but when it comes to hurricanes, so many folks just follow modeled surface tracks without ever mentioning the total lack of upper support?