FXWX

More like mid-November...

What cracks me up a bit, is 2 days ago we were screaming about the extreme look to the digging / closing off of the 500 level, and how rare it was! Well we still see the extreme solution, 525 closed off on the SC coast and we are just assuming it and it's surface reflection are being perfectly modeled & there will not be any surprises? Well, maybe it is being predicted perfectly, but I remain wary?

Hang tough! Don't bail yet!

Wow! Here we are 3-4 days out from the evolution of a very complex / incredibly unusual upper-level setup, and this is being dismissed, as a gone / done deal? Based on short-term trends of the ICON, NAM, GFS, etc... Maybe this ends up being a miss for most, but sitting here on Wednesday morning and pulling the plug on a weekend storm based on the less than perfect trends (ICON, GFS, CMC, NAM) is a bit baffling? We are still looking at a wild 500 mb evolution that a day ago was being labeled as historic with lots of uncertainty as to whether or not it was believable. How many of the "it's gone" believers will shut their computers off and not turn it back on until early next week to follow the next threat? Lol... Some of this is in jest, but the doom and gloom & confidence being professed it a bit over the top given the setup... just saying...

I've seen these types of setups throw heavy snow further west than originally modeled or predicted! Do not underestimate this storm's ability to push heavy snow into Western CT and the Berkshires...

agree

Yes, yes and yes!

Growing up during the age of Miller A's, I will say this... Some of the biggest busts I've witnessed and studied were intense Miller A storms. Error / bust potential is often much less when dealing with Miller B events. Given the historic look of the absurdly digging 500 mb trough, I would be very wary of this escaping too far east? While history making events are always possible, that 500 mb evolution is beyond extreme! If it develops as modeled, then it's one for the record books. I think it would be wise to assume its (500 mb) intensity is not going to be as intense as modeled. Lots to consider; where will the primary form, does it jump / reform well to the east, or does it get tugged westward, stall, loop, ??? Thumb through the Kocin book(s) and you will find examples of Miller A's that were expected to graze southeastern SNE, and to everyone's surprise, ended up throwing heavy snow back into eastern NY? Not saying this one will, but the evolution of the 500 mb level tells me this is not a simple escape east situation. I think a more western track evolves on modeling tomorrow.

All coated up here with trucks back out.

Even the Navy doesn't really use it! Like most organizations, it's mainly Euro and Gufus...

Calling it 19.0 in Burlington

2 weeks ago I was posting to my clients about the ghost of Jan 2015 walking through the door! Well, he's now sitting at the kitchen table! Great storm... Last week Will posted about the Gulf opening up (moisture flow) and how that tends to mean northward trends! I have been waiting for the gulf and deep southern moisture to get involved for years!!! Let's see if we can keep it going with East Coast action.

Tough measurement for my location, after assessing the drifting and multiple measurements, I think I'm closer to 20 than the 18 inch total I reported. Heading out to dig out the generator!

Will need to dig the generator out in the morning...

My DPW guy just text he's at 24". I'm too windy to get an truly accurate measurement, but I have drifting up to my windows and completely blocking my front entrance, I know we've gotten a big number!