WxWatcher007

I imagine he means the shape is favorable to “misses” relative to climatological tracks much like coastal GA is and the Outer Banks are, but who knows lol. Agree with your point though.

It’d be prudent to give the models (especially the hurricane intensity ones like the HAFS) more time, but the signal here for something significant is strong. FL should be preparing as such and perhaps into coastal GA/SC if the forecast holds.

Really wishing all of you the best of luck there.

Milton will likely be on the board soon, and it may be a major problem for Florida.

I hate to say it because of all the suffering happening in Florida, but I had a feeling of foreboding once I saw that EPAC seedling enter the BoC. That kind of vorticity entering that region is often a signal for development, and we’re seeing it play out this morning. To be clear, this is still a delicate setup with shear and dry air potentially lurking, but I think much like all the other Gulf hurricanes this year if future Milton is able to develop an inner core and anything close to the outflow channel suggested, it will not weaken on final approach, especially if it ends up further south in a warmer SST environment. Folks in FL need to activate their hurricane plans. I think the ceiling for this is substantially higher (doesn’t mean we’ll reach it) than it was last night.

Stellar is right. It looks like we probably get 2 (Gulf/MDR) or maybe 3 (another western Caribbean CAG type system) more NS before things shut down again mid-month, and then I think we may get a last burst in November when climo is squarely focused in the western Caribbean and the MJO cycles around again.

I think this qualifies as the lid coming off. Four hurricanes and two majors in less than 10 days. All of our peak activity has come since September 8.

Well I’ll say the lid came off. All of this activity came from September 8 on which is crazy. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 15 (7) Hurricanes: 10 (5) Major Hurricanes: 5 (2) Francine (H), Gordon, Helene (MH), Isaac (H), Joyce, Kirk (MH), Leslie (H)

18z EPS

With a 70% chance of development overall and potential impacts beginning in Florida as soon as this weekend, it's time for a dedicated thread to our latest disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico. 1. Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical or subtropical depression or storm is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves eastward or northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico. Interests in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over much of Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. What was a historically quiet start of the peak in late August through Mid September came to an abrupt end, with the lid coming off the basin and the most NS on record developing in late September into early October. Our latest system in the Gulf somewhat mirrors what we saw with Francine--we have a boundary settling into the Gulf while an area of vorticity related to what was an EPAC system crossed into the Bay of Campeche. This is a sensitive setup, as the presence of a frontal boundary, shear, dry air, and a tropical seed provide interesting ingredients for a tropical or subtropical system, or even a non-tropical low, though that looks increasingly unlikely. In fact, the general idea recently from guidance has been for the tropical seed to stay just far enough away from getting entangled in the boundary and blasted by shear to become a modestly strong tropical cyclone. That said, there's a lot that needs to be determined. One thing that is clear however is that the presence of a boundary/trough and tropical seed opens the door to 1) a Predecessor Rain Event (PRE) across part of the FL peninsula as soon as this weekend and 2) a follow up heavy rain event for parts of Florida with the system itself. I think this one has a modest ceiling, aided significantly by the EPAC seed. If we do get a more significant system--closer to that ceiling, wind and especially surge become more significant issues.

We’re still paying attention. Will probably throw up a thread with the 2pm outlook unless someone else wants to start it.

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 Kirk continues to prosper. The earlier eyewall replacement cycle appears to have completed, and Kirk is back on a strengthening trend. Satellite images indicate that Kirk has a circular and clear 15 n mi eye surrounded by a solid ring of intense deep convection. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 115 to 135 kt, and based on that data, the initial wind speed is increased to 125 kt. The hurricane is moving northwestward at 9 kt, and this general motion should continue through Friday as Kirk continues to move along the southwestern periphery of a high pressure ridge over the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic. A turn to the north is expected on Saturday when Kirk reaches the western periphery of the ridge and as a shortwave trough approaches the system. This trough and a reinforcing one should cause the hurricane to accelerate northeastward on Sunday and early next week. The models are in fairly good agreement on this overall scenario, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged westward to be in better agreement with the latest model runs. Kirk could strengthen a little more during the next 12 hours or so, but increasing vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry air should cause a steady weakening trend to begin shortly after that. Kirk will likely complete extratropical transition when it moves over cool waters sometime between day 4 and day 5, but it is expected to remain a powerful system throughout the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is in best agreement with the HCCA and IVCN consensus models. Even though Kirk is expected to stay over the open Atlantic, its strong intensity and increasing size will cause large ocean swells to propagate far away from the hurricane. These swells will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the Leeward Islands beginning Friday, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles by Saturday, and much of the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas by Sunday. For more information on this hazard, see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 21.5N 47.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 22.5N 48.6W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 24.4N 49.7W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 26.8N 50.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 30.0N 49.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 06/1200Z 33.6N 48.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 37.3N 44.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 43.5N 33.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 47.0N 16.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Unfortunately I think the rainfall signal does look higher end irrespective of what kind of low forms.

Yeah—I think we don’t have a thread yet because the signal is still unclear on development and impact, though I think both are trying to come into better focus. I think the genesis potential is a bit higher than the NHC currently has. And while pre-Helene discussion also weighed toward a broader/messier system coming out of the CAG, even at the start there was a recognition that higher end solutions were reasonably on the table. We have a very different outcome for many imo if the nascent center of Helene went 50-100 miles west and over the Yucatán. Sometimes that’s just how it goes, as you know. I’m intrigued that the Euro is more robust than the GFS. 12z maybe gets it to a hurricane. Aside from that it meanders, which means hydro trouble. Probably much more than you asked for, but here’s a good resource. https://severeweather.wmo.int/TCFW/RAIV_Workshop2019/09a_Ensemble-Prediction-Systems_EricBlake.pdf Now if you’re just wondering what the image above is, it’s all of the separate ensemble member projections for that particular time stamp. Some may not even appear because they may not actually have an actual low formed. Seeing a lot more EPS members show a low tells me that there’s a stronger signal for something to be there than on the GEFS. Looking closer however, you see that there are very few members at least at that time stamp that are below 1000mb, telling me that there’s a signal for something, but that something appears weak. This can be visualized a number of ways. If you’re looking for just the mean, that’s not the image I’d use. You would want to use something like this. An individual ensemble run can be wrong and often is when it comes to pinning down a specific forecast, but it does a good job of giving you the envelope of reasonable possibilities. Sometimes the op run telegraphs a shift in ensembles. For example, I’d expect the 12z EPS to be a bit more robust given how favorable the environment looked on the 12z Euro. Hope this helps.

Now THAT’S good stuff. Wow.

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 Kirk has undergone an impressive period of rapid intensification over the past 24 h. Recent satellite imagery showed a ragged eye, with multiple deep bursts of convection rotating in the eyewall. Overshooting tops are obscuring the eye now, but it would not be surprising if it clears again soon. As noted in the special advisory, the subjective Dvorak satellite estimates have climbed but were constrained. The initial intensity is nudged up to 110 kt for this advisory, closest to the T6.0 data-T number from SAB. The hurricane has strengthened 55 kt since 0300 UTC last night, which means Kirk lands at a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The hurricane continues to be steered by the subtropical ridge to the northwest at an estimated 310/9 kt. Little has changed in the track forecast reasoning. On Friday night or Saturday, Kirk is expected to gradually turn north-northwestward to northward and accelerate in the flow between a deep-layer trough and the weakening subtropical ridge. Later in the weekend, Kirk is expected to continue accelerating north-northeastward to northeastward. Few changes have been made to the latest official track forecast, which lie close to various consensus aids. Given Kirk's recent rapid intensification, conditions appear conducive for further strengthening during the next day or so. The short-term forecast is therefore above all of the guidance now, peaking at 130 kt in 24 h. By Friday, the vertical wind shear is expected to increase and gradually weaken Kirk through the remainder of the forecast period. As the hurricane moves more poleward, Kirk's tropical-storm-force winds are predicted to grow and send large swell westward to the northern Leeward Islands and the Bahamas over the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 19.5N 44.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 20.4N 45.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 21.7N 47.1W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 23.1N 48.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 24.8N 49.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 27.0N 50.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 30.0N 50.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 36.8N 45.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 43.9N 35.2W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 Geostationary satellite and microwave images indicate that the system has become better organized with convective bands wrapping about two-thirds of the way around the center. A partial ASCAT pass from around 2230 UTC showed winds very close to tropical storm force northeast of the center. Since the system has continued to become organized since the ASCAT pass, the initial intensity is increased to 35 kt, making the cyclone Tropical Storm Leslie. This intensity estimate is also in agreement with a 2.5 Dvorak classification from TAFB. Leslie is moving slowly to the west at about 5 kt. A continued slow westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 2 to 3 days as Leslie remains steered by a weak mid-level ridge to its north. Beyond that time, a slightly faster motion to the northwest is predicted as the storm moves on the western periphery of the ridge and approaches a broad trough over the central Atlantic. The models are in fair agreement overall, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Leslie is currently in a moderate wind shear environment due to the outflow from major Hurricane Kirk to its northwest. However, the shear is expected to lessen while Leslie remains over warm waters and in a moist environment. These condition should support steady strengthening during the next few days, and the official intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one. Beyond a few days, Leslie is predicted to move over Kirk's prior track and associated cool wake, and into a slightly drier air mass. These conditions could cause the intensity to level off. The new forecast is in best agreement with the latest HCCA guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 10.4N 30.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 10.2N 30.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 10.2N 31.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 10.4N 33.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 10.8N 34.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 11.4N 35.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 12.2N 37.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 14.3N 39.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 17.0N 42.9W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

That one may have a chance at major status too if it can stay south enough of the behemoth Kirk is likely to become.

Kirk & Leslie

Note how the EPS has some stronger members in the Gulf too.

Doubt it matters in the whole scheme of things but it’s interesting.

It still looks like a messy signal to me. Surprisingly the GEFS is less robust even though the op model is aggressive from time to time. The Euro/EPS has seemed fairly consistent to me. I still think something will develop, but it looks much more broad. The jury is still out on what if anything develops.