WxWatcher007

Probably a wobble. These things don't really go in a straight line. I've learned that lesson firsthand lol.

Thank you everyone for the birthday wishes! It may not be a 5, but I do have a cane coming my way.

Flight level winds by recon remain quite high to the NE of the center, with a few readings over 70kts, but I don't quite see it translate to SFMR. That could be due to proximity to land though.

Happy birthday @Prospero! Wish you many more! I arrived in Clearwater a few hours ago. Best of luck tonight to everyone in the Tampa area.

This is WxWatcher007 reporting live for the first time in the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season from Clearwater, FL, where we have a Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning. Conditions have been relatively dry, but there have been some fairly strong breezes which have been increasing as Elsa approaches. A number of people have been out and about during the calm, but every person I've met so far is aware of the coming storm. Expecting a busy overnight period.

Elsa has regained hurricane status. 75mph/996mb.

Congrats to everyone that cashed in lol

It was always on the table, just a low shot deal.

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 Radar data from Cuba and Key West, Florida, along with surface observations, indicate that the center of Elsa is back over water, having emerged off the northern coast of of Cuba around 0200 UTC. Doppler velocity data from the NOAA WSR-88D at Key West indicate values of around 55 t at 10,000 ft, which supports equivalent surface winds of 49 kt. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft flying just offshore the north coast of Cuba over deep water measured reliable SFMR surface winds of at least 50 kt. Based on these data, the intensity has been increased to 50 kt. The initial motion estimate is 330/10 kt. Just like over the past three days, no significant changes have been made to the previous track forecast or synoptic reasoning. Elsa is now moving north-northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge whose axis extends westward across the Atlantic to central Florida. The cyclone should gradually move around the ridge over the next 36 hours, turning northward on Tuesday and then north-northeastward Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. By late Wednesday, Elsa should accelerate northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough and frontal system, moving across the eastern United States to near Atlantic Canada. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track, but was nudged slightly eastward due to the more eastward initial position, and lies a tad east of of the various tightly clustered track consensus models. Some additional strengthening is expected over the next 36 hours, with some of the SHIPS and global models showing Elsa possibly reaching 60 kt just before landfall along the northwestern Florida peninsula. This would typically require a Hurricane Watch for a small portion of northwest Florida. However, given that Elsa has been hugging a very tight mid-level moisture gradient -- a condition that is expected to continue until landfall occurs in about 36 hours -- the new official intensity forecast remains similar to the previous advisory and holds the peak intensity at 55 kt due to expected intermittent dry-air intrusions. Subsequent NHC forecasts can assess the new reconnaissance and model data that will be coming in later tonight, and determine if an increase in the intensity forecast and the issuance of a hurricane watch or warning is required. By 96 hours, the global models suggest that the cyclone will merge with a frontal zone, so the new intensity forecast continues to shows extratropical transition at that time. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and southeast Georgia through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding, with considerable flooding possible in southwest and western portions of Florida. Mid to late week, heavy rains across coastal South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban flooding. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida Tuesday night and Wednesday, and a Storm Surge Warning has been issued for that area. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across portions of central and western Cuba tonight, and spread northward across portions of the Florida Keys and the Florida west coast through Wednesday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions along portions of the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 23.5N 82.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 24.9N 82.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 26.9N 83.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 29.2N 83.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 31.6N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 08/1200Z 34.0N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 09/0000Z 36.9N 76.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 10/0000Z 43.3N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/0000Z 50.5N 52.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart

Yep, and the question will be will the two align enough overnight to allow for some modest intensification. I think the answer is no given the projected shear, but sometimes it’s helpful to shed a weak LLC over land to allow for some reformation near a more robust MLC.

Heck of a way to run a drought

EPS looks west of the op.

Trend right up the Bay?

It was definitely slower this run. Maybe there is a trend here.

No

Euro gone wild for some coastal sections lol.

I don't think I buy it, but the Euro tries to go to town in the eastern Gulf as Elsa makes final approach to Florida. Very close to a hurricane by the time it makes landfall.

Edit: it's northwest of the 00z run but still a miss for most.

Looks like the Ukmet as well.

Probably good for some decent wind at the coast too.

It is my birthday, weenies, and I demand that you celebrate this day with Pomp and Parade, with Shews, Games, Sports, Guns, Bells, Bonfires and Illuminations from one end of the Mid-Atlantic to the other. I shall also accept payment via Venmo, and Bitcoin, and sudden rapid intensification of a tropical cyclone.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 81.2W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ESE OF CAYO LARGO CUBA ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning along the west coast of Florida has been extended northward to the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay. The Storm Surge Watch along the west coast of Florida has been extended northward to the Ochlockonee River. The Tropical Storm Watch along the coast of the Florida panhandle has been extended westward to Indian Pass, Florida. The government of Cuba has discontinued all watches and warnings for the Cuban province of Camaguey. The government of Cuba has changed the Hurricane Warning for the Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos and Matanzas to a Tropical Storm Warning, and has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban province of Artemisa. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Villa Clara, Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa * The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas * West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Suwannee River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef * Florida Bay * North of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, Florida

It’s unflagged but bad data.

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 11:24ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF) Storm Name: ElsaStorm Number & Year: 05 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 11Observation Number: 04 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 10:40:04ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 21.29N 80.64WB. Center Fix Location: 61 statute miles (99 km) to the SSW (192°) from Cienfuegos, Cuba.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,144m (10,315ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 205° at 19kts (From the SSW at 22mph)F. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Not AvailableH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 52kts (59.8mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 61 nautical miles (70 statute miles) to the NNW (333°) of center fix at 10:21:43ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 105° at 30kts (From the ESE at 34.5mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the N (3°) of center fix at 10:31:26ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 54kts (62.1mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the SE (144°) of center fix at 10:44:36ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 195° at 42kts (From the SSW at 48.3mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 106 nautical miles (122 statute miles) to the SE (132°) of center fix at 11:09:33ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,144m (10,315ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,068m (10,066ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) which was observed 106 nautical miles (122 statute miles) to the SE (132°) from the flight level center at 11:09:33Z

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 Similar to this time last night, Elsa has undergone another convective bursting pattern, except that tonight this has translated into at least some slight strengthening. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the cyclone this evening has found maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 55 kt and reliable SFMR surface winds of about 55 kt. Although there have been SFMR winds of 60 kt or more reported northeast and north of the center, those values appear to be contaminated by shoaling and/or breaking waves owing to the shallow water flowing in and around the offshore Cayo Anclitas and Cayo Pingues archipelagos. The estimated center pressure of 1004 mb based on dropsonde data also does a higher intensity of 60 kt. Therefore, based on the most reliable data, the intensity has been increased to 55 kt. The initial motion estimate is 310/13 kt. There remains no significant change to the previous few track forecasts and synoptic reasonings. Elsa is expected to move northwestward and then northward around the western periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge during the next 3 days, followed by acceleration toward the northeast on days 4 and 5 as the cyclone moves near the southeast U.S. coast and then over the northwestern Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is basically just an update and extension of the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the tightly packed corrected consensus model HCCA and the simple consensus models TVCA and GFEX. Cuban radar data from Pilan and Camaguey have occasionally revealed an eye-like feature in the low -and mid-levels of the cyclone where cloud top temperatures have been colder than -80C and also where significant lightning activity has been occurring. Given that the circulation centers have become better aligned and the upper-level outflow pattern is well-established and steadily improving, some additional strengthening during the next 12 h is forecast, which calls for Elsa to be near hurricane strength before landfall occurs along the south-central coast of Cuba tomorrow. Over the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday, some restrengthening is forecast after Elsa clears Cuba, but southwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to hinder the intensification process. The official intensity forecast remains on the high side of the numerical model guidance, and follows a blend of the HCCA intensity consensus model, and the LGEM and and Decay-SHIPS statistical-dynamical models. Key Messages: 1. Widespread heavy rain will continue to affect portions of Jamaica tonight where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight into Monday resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Mid to late week, heavy rains across coastal South Carolina may result in isolated flash flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of central and western Cuba tonight and Monday, and will spread into portions of the Florida Keys by late Monday. 3. Tropical Storm and Surge Surge Watches are in effect for portions of the west coast of the Florida peninsula where tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are possible beginning as early as Monday night and continuing into Tuesday. 4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts along the remainder of the Florida Peninsula Tuesday night through Wednesday and the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 20.6N 79.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 21.9N 80.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 23.5N 82.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 25.1N 82.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 27.1N 83.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 29.2N 82.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 08/0000Z 31.5N 81.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/0000Z 36.0N 76.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 10/0000Z 41.0N 66.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Stewart