WxWatcher007

I would definitely not let my guard down north of Tampa. I think the center coming in like 30 miles north of Tampa is unlikely, but Tampa is still squarely at risk of a direct landfall. The zone is narrowing, and that makes every single wobble increasingly important.

Reports of damage in and around Fort Myers per TWC related to the tornadoes.

Some serious circulations. Paging @weatherwiz

As @olafminesawnoted earlier, this is a much larger eye and potentially getting larger. Factor that in as you’re tracking the center’s final approach. Numerous tornado warnings including a PDS warning. Flash flood warnings east of Gainesville. Conditions are clearly deteriorating along the west coast of Florida as well and flash flood and tornado warnings will likely increase as that big band continues scraping the region.

The latest VDM from about 40 minutes ago had the eye of Milton now at 32nm.

I have family a little further north in Spring Hill and watching some areas around Tampa for a friend with family there. Obviously no met but if I can be helpful just tag me in here and I’ll answer if I can. Good luck.

Where are you located?

The NHC does a tremendous job. After Francine’s eastward shift toward New Orleans late and Helene’s eastward shift toward Perry late I think it’s good that they are even more explicit in stating that a forecast can still have narrow in the whole scheme of things but tremendous uncertainty on final landfall point this late. No, it’ll almost certainly be the surge. It’s almost always the most devastating part of a hurricane of this magnitude. Tornadoes are serious, but just the prelude to the worst unfortunately.

145mph/931mb at 11.

Good luck.

I don’t think so. It seems pretty standard to me so far. It is a little surprising that the first one didn’t create a much bigger eye, but going from 4nm wide to 10nm wide is still more than double.

Milton continues to look remarkably strong this morning as recon finds lower pressure than a few hours ago. An ERC is underway however, with the last recon VDM showing a concentric eye with the inner eye at 8nm and the outer at 32nm. Tremendous lightning (not shown) remains in the center but you can clearly see the eye becoming less defined here as the ERC progresses. Recon is moving toward another center pass now and continues to find FL winds in excess of 150kt. Now that we’re in radar range, both recon fixes and satellite will help us get a better sense of exact heading relative to the coast. Wobbles are common. In both directions. There will be a lot of speculation and radar hallucinations. You need to stay anchored to long term motion. One or two center fixes can be informative but are NOT a long term motion. Keep that in mind as you’re tracking today. We’re likely to know the landfall zone only a few hours before landfall. The models certainly remain useful, but for track I’m going to start relying more on the actual radar and recon data now. This remains a multi-hazard event even inland. Remain vigilant. The flash flood risk is coming into greater focus. Folks in the high risk zone today and tomorrow need to avoid flood prone areas as the rain picks up today. The tornado threat is significant as well today. Anyone getting bands should pay attention even outside the enhanced risk zone.

I have two tweets/images that may be helpful in understanding where we are and where we’re going. The first is a hovmoller to understand the gradual expansion of the wind field. Although Milton’s inner core had remained small, the annotated image below makes it clear that the wind field overall has grown over time. This is going to continue as the storm approaches the coast. At this point, major to catastrophic surge is almost certainly set in motion for wherever that maximum zone sets up. It’s why folks under evacuation orders needed to heed those warnings—as I said this morning, we still cannot know the exact landfall zone and as such folks should anticipate the worst and take action now rather than wait until a few hours before landfall. The second is also very important imo: it’s a cross section of the core. Andy does a great job of pointing out how exceptionally strong and deep this inner core is. In a vacuum, this has two implications imo 1) This kind of core could be quite resilient to increasing shear. 2) This deep a vortex could be more apt to move poleward as it turns NE and feels the influence of the trough. We’re not in a vacuum however. I think a lot of what happens with track and intensity will depend on when and how long an ERC takes place. It’s still a small core, that can ramp up or down quickly. An ERC late tomorrow, as shear is increasing, may very well weaken the vortex substantially, leading to a weaker storm that tracks further south. If, however, we get an ERC to begin overnight and complete quickly, it would expand the vortex, making it more inertially stable and resistant to shear that arrives when the vortex is less vulnerable, which would potentially hold the intensity at wherever the ERC leaves it, and make jogs north more likely, especially if the convection becomes “weighted” to the northern section. These aren’t major shifts. But they may make the difference between a landfall at 120mph and maybe 135mph, or south/north of Tampa. Just my evening thought. I don’t know which side we’ll end up on. Edit: for the FL folks, I’m just using Tampa because that’s really the dividing line on center potential. Obviously, a further south impact would be major to catastrophic for Sarasota, Port Charlotte, and even Ft. Meyers if this trends south late, which is possible as well.

Latest VDM has a central pressure of 916mb with a 6nm wide eye and a peak FL wind of 142kt.

Hasn’t been much discussion here of the inland flash flood risk but hopefully local folks are getting the message.

Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 0:20ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)Storm Name: MiltonStorm Number: 14 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 17Observation Number: 10 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 23Z on the 8th day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb Coordinates: 22.8N 87.0W Location: 114 statute miles (183 km) to the N (355°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, Mexico. Marsden Square: 081 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level. 927mb (27.38 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 24.8°C (76.6°F) 24.6°C (76°F) 155° (from the SSE) 160 knots (184 mph) 925mb 23m (75 ft) 24.8°C (76.6°F) 24.7°C (76°F) 155° (from the SSE) 169 knots (194 mph) 850mb 766m (2,513 ft) 22.0°C (71.6°F) 22.0°C (72°F) 210° (from the SSW) 151 knots (174 mph) Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 23:10Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 135° (SE) from the eye center. Highest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 22.85N 86.99W - Time: 23:10:35Z Lowest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 22.93N 86.92W - Time: 23:13:25Z Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 180° (from the S) - Wind Speed: 154 knots (177 mph) Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 215° (from the SW) - Wind Speed: 135 knots (155 mph) - Depth of Sounding: From 753mb to 926mb Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding: - Lowest 150m: 158 gpm - 8 gpm (518 geo. feet - 26 geo. feet) - Wind Direction: 160° (from the SSE) - Wind Speed: 165 knots (190 mph) Sounding Software Version: AEV 40002 Part B: Data for Significant Levels... Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels Level Air Temperature Dew Point 927mb (Surface) 24.8°C (76.6°F) 24.6°C (76°F) 850mb 22.0°C (71.6°F) 22.0°C (72°F) 764mb 18.4°C (65.1°F) 18.4°C (65°F) 758mb 19.4°C (66.9°F) 17.3°C (63°F) 750mb 18.0°C (64.4°F) 17.7°C (64°F) Significant Wind Levels Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 927mb (Surface) 155° (from the SSE) 160 knots (184 mph) 926mb 155° (from the SSE) 162 knots (186 mph) 925mb 155° (from the SSE) 170 knots (196 mph) 924mb 155° (from the SSE) 164 knots (189 mph) 922mb 155° (from the SSE) 174 knots (200 mph) 921mb 160° (from the SSE) 178 knots (205 mph) 918mb 160° (from the SSE) 174 knots (200 mph) 913mb 175° (from the S) 149 knots (171 mph) 906mb 185° (from the S) 160 knots (184 mph) 893mb 190° (from the S) 153 knots (176 mph) 879mb 195° (from the SSW) 156 knots (180 mph) 873mb 200° (from the SSW) 147 knots (169 mph) 867mb 200° (from the SSW) 145 knots (167 mph) 850mb 210° (from the SSW) 151 knots (174 mph) 753mb 255° (from the WSW) 144 knots (166 mph) Dropsonde Diagram 0102030401000925850700Temperature (°C)Pressure Level (mb)Dew PointAirWind (kts)Milton (14L)Mission 17 - NOAA2Time: 23:10Z on 8th day of monthObservation Number: 10Location: 22.85N 86.99W

This may be helpful. There are a number of factors that drive surge height. https://www.weather.gov/media/owlie/surge_intro.pdf

Down to 902mb. It seems more or less steady state, maybe some slight intensification with the continued pressure fall. We’ll see if it can tick below 900 again.

With a 159kt FL wind.

Leslie is back! A hurricane again at 5pm.

No doubt in my mind it’s a 5 again. Truly incredible to witness in the Gulf at this time of year.

Yeah these satellite estimates only take you so far. I’m looking forward to recon.

Well…it speaks for itself. As good a look as anything yesterday.

Definitely worth a watch.