WxWatcher007

I love this stuff, and it has been a boring start to the season so it's nice to have a close to the coast opportunity. I feel like I learn the most about the elements of TC genesis from the under the radar disturbances, even if they don't develop.

10% odds from the NHC. I think that's reasonable. Let's see if this area can stay persistent and offshore. No matter what, cool to watch (for me at least).

I love TC genesis near the coast because you can really follow things on radar. While convection looks pretty disorganized on IR, the radar shows the apparent banding near the center, which is quite compelling IMO. It's drifting offshore too rather than moving toward the coast, meaning for now at least, there is time for additional organization. I haven't seen anything impressive in the way of velocities or pressure drops based on radar and buoy data, but this really just popped a few hours ago. I think this is worth some odds at 2pm.

From the recent MCD Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0423 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1224 PM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022 Areas affected...Coastal Lowcountry of Georgia and South Carolina Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 011623Z - 012200Z Summary...Coastal low pressure will bring heavy rain to the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina through this evening. Rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr will likely train onshore, leading to instances of flash flooding. Discussion...An area of low pressure is clearly evident on the regional radar mosaic this morning as a closed swirl of reflectivity just east of Tybee Island, GA. This circulation has become better organized this morning along an inverted trough, and is responsible for heavy rainfall exceeding 4 inches that fell near Chatham, GA overnight. In the vicinity of this low, cooling cloud tops are occurring just offshore, with a stripe of enhanced upper diffluence noted in the GOES-E WV imagery stretching from northern GA into eastern NC. The 12Z U/A sounding out of KCHS measured a PW of 2.11 inches, above the 90th percentile for the date, with a freezing level approaching 15,000 ft and a mean 700-500mb lapse rate of 5.5C/km. These together with MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg imply efficient warm rain processes, and radar-estimated rain rates from KCLX have been over 1.5"/hr this morning. As the low continues to move slowly northeast along the coast through this aftn, it is likely to consolidate and at least subtly strengthen. As this occurs, pinched flow northeast of the center will help push the 850mb LLJ to 20 kts out of the southeast. This will originate near the Gulf Stream, transporting the warm, more moist and unstable air onshore, helping to resupply favorable thermodynamics to the area through the aftn. The combination of increasing convergence on the nose of the LLJ, any frictional convergence near the coast, and broad upper diffluence will drive pronounced ascent, leading to increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms. With the thermodynamics likely to remain extremely favorable, this will support an intensification of rain rates which could exceed 2"/hr at times as shown by the HREF probabilities and HRRR sub-hourly precipitation forecasts. The heaviest rainfall is likely along the immediate coast northeast of the low, which could receive more than 3" of rainfall. This is where the best training potential of these heavy rates exists as upwind propagation vectors become increasingly opposed to the mean flow. This indicates the likelihood for backbuilding of cells into the offshore instability with these subsequently training onshore. However, additional heavy rain is likely near and just west of the low center where storm motions will slow to less than 5 kts, while still containing impressive rain rates. The FFG across the area is generally 2-3"/1hr and 3-4"/3hrs, which the HREF indicates has a 20-30% chance for exceedance through late this aftn, suggesting at least isolated flash flooding in urban areas or where the most efficient training occurs. While this MPD is only valid through early evening, additional MPDs may be needed for the continued flash flood threat into tonight as the low continues to trek up the coast.

They've designated far worse lol. In all seriousness though, I don't think it's unreasonable to give this some official odds, given the well defined center that seems to be staying offshore for now, persistent convection, and banding structure that seems to be developing. That said, it needs to be persistent. If it can push a little further offshore it may have a chance. Interesting looking at the long range radar as it looks like the original convection ejected an LLC.

While all of the areas of interest in the Atlantic have underperformed, thanks to @nwohweatherI can weenie out on this. This is actually from the Bahamas MCS that slowly drifted up the coast over the last few days.

That looks better than former PTC Two and 95L ever did lol

Great info, thanks for sharing! I remember that NYC event. People thought the aliens finally arrived lol.

Right on cue Tropical Storm Bonnie Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 915 AM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022 ...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM... Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the disturbance has now become Tropical Storm Bonnie over the southwestern Caribbean Sea with maximum winds of 40 mph (65 km/h). SUMMARY OF 915 AM EDT...1315 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.2N 80.5W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Hogsett

It looks like recon finally found a center

I hope this is preseason jitters for the models lol because the performance has not been great…especially the Euro with regard to PTC Two.

High end slop

All the areas of interest in the basin are pretty pathetic today.

Howdy! Good to see you posting. Recon en route.

Much like 95L, PTC Two remains a disorganized mess, with convection well away from the apparent center which has finally crossed the Guajira Peninsula. Judging by early visible imagery and surface observations however, it should finally be able to acquire a name today. From there we’ll see how quickly intensification happens.

Running out of time. 1. Western Gulf of Mexico: Recent satellite and radar imagery indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure near the southern coast of Texas are showing limited signs of organization. The disturbance is forecast to turn northward and move slowly inland over southeastern Texas later today. Slow development of this system is possible while the low remains over water and it could still become a short-lived tropical depression before it moves inland. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast for the next two days. For more information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products issued by your National Weather Service office. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if it remains over water. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Yawn

An all-time event for the region. Just extraordinary.

Underperforming areas of interest across the Atlantic. 95L has a LLC but no organization. PTC Two has some organization but no LLC. Early season slop for all

Looks like we will have dual recon missions this afternoon. Recon en route to Invest 95L. There is much more convection so far today and it looks like the environment is moistening, but it's unclear if there's enough organization with shear still present.

Recon en route to investigate PTC 2. It looks like it has organized overnight, but may just be short of having a closed LLC. We'll see what recon finds.

Recon tentatively scheduled to investigate 95L tomorrow.

Northern Gulf of Mexico: An area of low pressure centered over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move slowly westward or west-southwestward and approach the coast of Texas during the next two days. Slow development of the low is possible, and it could become a short-lived tropical depression near the coast before it moves inland. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast later this week. For more information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products issued by your National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.