WxWatcher007

If we’re still seeing big shifts at 18z lol all models should be taken offline until after the storm concludes.

Season of wasted potential. We may be salvaging something here if the 12z trend continues.

Beat me to it. Not as wild as last night. Looks reasonable on the bullish side.

Agree. If anything I feel better about my map this afternoon than I did waking up.

I think we need to see it to believe it. If there’s any place favored to slot it’s central CT. Maybe you escape it.

Love that I have be able to set my watch to a daily disrobing watching the Canadian.

O Canada, in central CT. Again lol.

Yes. Let’s just get it over the valley too

No doubt.

Slot right over me per sounding. Does look colder though.

He picked up stakes and went wagons north specifically for an event like this. As frustrating as it may be to read, he put his money behind that username lol.

Can we get just a little caving from the globals? Is that too much for a weenie to ask?

Many of us will need rehab after this season

For whom though.

Just fired one up. Good luck up there.

Blizzard or BS? A complex and highly sensitive evolution is expected for the major storm we've been tracking for a week. Best of luck, everyone. Currently 39.8/33 here.

You’re right, I could have worded better and I tried in the post below. I love my backyard and stuff but I’m looking at this purely from a forecasting perspective right now. Dead serious now. I think we’ve done an excellent job conveying the spread and uncertainty to our followers, but for me, it’s deeply concerning to see that this could really go either way. A less wintry scenario here is fine—people just go to school. But I really do worry about waking up tomorrow and people are unprepared for a far more impactful event on the wintry side. Not to be hyperbolic, but that could be disastrous.

I’ve never been part of a forecast like this. It’s truly extraordinary that we’re at game time and have this much spread potential. Normally I would have expected the high res to be torched with the globals gone wild. I’m having a hard time rationalizing taking the globals over the high res, when the high res should have a better handle on boundary layer and mesoscale features, other than looking at reputation of the globals. We’ve gotten spoiled with the technology at our disposal.

Jesus what a mess. The mesos look far more impactful than the globals here in CT. High high bust potential.

They should definitely be advisories. Not nearly enough confidence to get anywhere close to warning level. Conservative is the way to go here, especially in S CT. I’m still modestly confident we end up with something plowable in the interior, but honestly I just want this waiting crap to be over and see what falls. It’s absolutely an outlier, but the HREF stayed bullish at 00z. The high res is doing just enough to keep me intrigued imby.

Spoke too soon about the second half of the 00z guidance. Oh well.

Bunch of rain verbatim on Ukie

I understand not using the French or Icon, but the Canadian and RGEM are legitimate JV models IMO.

I’d be surprised if the Ukie and Euro don’t tick back toward favorable given the tenor of 00z, but we’ll see. Like I said a few days ago. Down to the wire. It will have been worth it if we thread the needle to a high impact obliteration.