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WxWatcher007

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Everything posted by WxWatcher007

  1. WxWatcher007
    Also, it’s still ten days out at least! A long way to go with this one, where you’d hope we have a better sense of the troughing and ridge in about 5 days.
  2. WxWatcher007
    You see that and it looks so uncertain wrt the extent and orientation of that mid-latitude troughing. I do think the setup lends itself to 1) OTS 2) NC points north scrape/hit 3) Nova Scotia scrape/hit. I think a land impact is made much less likely given the higher chance that this doesn’t drive further west into the Bahamas before a turn, at least as currently modeled.
  3. WxWatcher007
    Yeah…let’s leave the morality debates and wishcasting elsewhere and focus on the meteorology here, please. On topic, those op runs that failed to do much with this a few days ago are a distant memory. It really does look like all elements are aligning for a significant hurricane, and for the folks in the Antilles this increases confidence that 95L gains latitude enough to clear the area.
  4. WxWatcher007
  5. WxWatcher007
    Intensity guidance has this thing really taking off in just a couple days. Like I said in the tropical subforum OP, this is as good a signal for a long track major hurricane I've seen in a while.
  6. WxWatcher007
    I laughed when I typed that. That's not how we do business around here.
  7. WxWatcher007
    Hits are definitely outliers at this point, though I still caution everyone to stay away from locking anything in this far out, even as OTS remains favored currently. Looking at 95L this morning, it's continuing to organize. Certainly on track to become a TC by midweek despite some shear.
  8. WxWatcher007
  9. WxWatcher007
    The annual up the Bay track
  10. WxWatcher007
    Dulles did me in
  11. WxWatcher007
    OTS still favored given the ensembles, perhaps even heavily, but it’s still too early to lock in any one solution—especially since we don’t have a well defined center yet. The op runs don’t mean anything right now, and color me skeptical on the ensembles being right in picking out the exact orientation, strength, and timing of troughing 7-10 days out. It’s really ok to be patient and watch things play out.
  12. WxWatcher007
    Absolutely. I’ll roll the dice on a pig ridge.
  13. WxWatcher007
    Speaking of the pattern, it’s intriguing. Give me a strong enough ridge to get this to the central, or better, northwest Bahamas, and I’ll take my chances with troughing.
  14. WxWatcher007
    That solution would require perfect timing, but everyone should be watching the strength of this Atlantic ridge. This is not a slam dunk OTS pattern IMO, even if that solution is still favored at this time, and if it’s a threat to the US I think it’s an EC threat rather than buzzsaw through Florida threat.
  15. WxWatcher007
    On a trip I took to GA to spend my birthday with family I abruptly told them I needed to go to Florida to chase Hurricane Elsa. I didn’t go to Buffalo for their epic blizzard was because it was the first Christmas after my dad passed.
  16. WxWatcher007
    It may very well remain no threat to land, but this is a very important reminder, visualized:
  17. WxWatcher007
    Not our area but big flooding around Vegas.
  18. WxWatcher007
    Fantastic day outside
  19. WxWatcher007
    It’d be hilarious if this struggled after my super bullish post In all seriousness though, I find it very hard to believe that easterly shear would overcome all the other favorable factors including peak climo to disrupt this invest to the point it’s weak across the entire basin, especially given how it looks currently on visible/IR. The overall environment looks excellent to me despite the early shear. Intensity also probably plays a role in track.
  20. WxWatcher007
    Yeah I think the steering pattern is a bit messy right now. We’ll see where things stand as this reaches the Antilles.
  21. WxWatcher007
    Yeah I started the thread on the invest on the main tropics page.
  22. WxWatcher007
  23. WxWatcher007
    Gert came back from the dead, and Katia has formed. All eyes should be on 95L. Forecast has been excellent thus far. WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 13 (7) Hurricanes: 6 (2) Major Hurricanes: 3 (2) Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH), Jose, Katia
  24. WxWatcher007
    Totally agree. The troughing signal is going to be uncertain for at least another 7-10 days IMO. Get it to the Antilles and we'll see what things look like. Get it to the Bahamas and all bets are off. OTS favored until there's a strong EC signal. This one is a big dog whether it impacts land or goes OTS. CV major of yore.
  25. WxWatcher007
    Just updated the OP with an analysis
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