WxWatcher007

It's an extremely tough sell for NE. Looks legit risky for @Hazey to Nick though.

WxWatcher007 2023 Atlantic Peak Season Forecast Finally, I have the time to share my annual thoughts on the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. This is my fifth annual forecast and the lead up to today has seen very significant uncertainty on the tenor of the season. The season so far has actually been normal in number of storms and ACE to date, which means active for a Nino. As I write, we suddenly have a TC outbreak in the Atlantic. The switch is definitely flipping in the basin. Each year on August 20, the late Dr. William Gray and his team would ring a bell, symbolizing the start of peak season. This year, we have a historically warm basin battling a Nino that is gradually increasing in influence. What does the August 20 - October 20 period hold? Here's my forecast. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 13 Hurricanes: 6 Major Hurricanes: 3 Emily, Franklin, and Gert became named storms yesterday. Had I posted on the 20th, I would have forecast Emily and Franklin to develop, but not Gert. As a result, my verification will include that. The forecast also predicts PTC 9 and Invest 92L to become NS. That's already pretty active. With the current outbreak, I think the risk of a below normal season has diminished. I expect this active window to be confined to the next 4 weeks, with a sharp drop off in activity by September 20. That doesn't mean we can't/won't have NS/H/MH during the late period, but I think at that point, the evolving MJO and Nino will start closing things down. Over the past four seasons, I've done well with my forecasts. I view being within +/- 1 as a success, with points off the greater the error. I earned a B+ in 2019, A- in 2020, a disappointing C in 2021, and a rebounding B- in 2022. As a reminder, the historical average is 14/7/3. With this peak season forecast I am now forecasting an overall 18/7/3 with more NS than normal, a normal hurricane number, and normal MH number due to decreasing shear during the peak and the exceptionally warm basin even in the central Atlantic. I see ACE around normal. 1. ENSO After a three year Nina, we're solidly in an El Nino regime. Of course, every ENSO event is different, and intensity/location matters a lot. Given what I project (and I will admit I am not as good with the intensity/location stuff) and what I've seen so far, the fundamental atmospheric response in the Atlantic that allows for anomalously high shear through the basin has not yet occurred, despite the shear in the basin currently. During the peak guidance actually shows a decrease in shear, but the influence of the Nino should eventually increase, bringing a wind down of activity around the basin (particularly the Caribbean) approximately four weeks from now. 2. West African Monsoon The WAM has shown mixed signals so far this season, but now that we're entering the peak it is ramping up. We've seen numerous strong African Easterly Waves (AEWs) that have rolled off Africa, and if the GFS Ensembles are to be believed, it should continue through at least early September. With CV season coming, this is essential to the forecast, even if the MDR remains somewhat hostile with subsidence because it provides a launching point for strong waves to survive the trek into the western Atlantic where there may be more favorable conditions depending on shear. 3. Wind Shear For the most part, shear has been the opposite of what you'd expect for a Nino. Recently it has gotten much worse, but that hasn't stopped development across the basin. It has, however, limited intensity potential, which is part of the reason why I am not interested in going above normal on H or MH numbers. I do think we're going to continue having issues with TUTTs, but I don't anticipate the incredibly consistent wave breaking we saw last year that really capped potential in the basin. There is fairly high confidence in this, given the agreement by the ensembles and the seasonal trend thus far. Eventually I think the Nino will take over, but not until the damage has been done. 4. SST Anomalies/OHC If we didn't have the extraordinary SST anomalies and OHC dominating the basin, this would undoubtably be a BN season. This has really allowed for the early MDR NS, marginal activity in the basin in the face of shear/dry air, and for Don to become our first hurricane in July. It is historic warmth, and while SSTs are not the piece that drives a season, they are an essential piece. 5. SAL & Stability The check on the season so far hasn't been shear, it has been SAL and stability. After being historically low earlier in the season, SAL came back with a vengeance in July and August, stabilizing much of the basin and completely closing down even cloud development in the MDR. In fact, vertical instability has been well below climo all year in the tropical Atlantic. Times are changing though. SAL is on the decline as we reach the peak of the season, as is usually the case. The sacrificial waves, which all became named storms along the monsoon trough, has dramatically decreased SAL and moistened the environment around the basin, further increasing confidence in an active month ahead. I can't embed the gif, but the link is below. https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/movies/goes16split.html 5. CCKW/MJO Finally, although we can't see very far, we do also have another factor making an active month more likely. It looks like we are getting favorable passage of a CCKW and the MJO looks to be on the side of Atlantic activity for the next few weeks. This should continue to promote vigorous waves. Not all will develop, but it should keep moistening the MDR and allow for waves to get further west. Overall I didn't want to go big, because we still don't know how much shear and stability will truly subside in the coming weeks. Honestly, before this week I was leaning BN overall. With the current state of the Atlantic however and a more favorable period coming aside from the annual start of the climatological peak, I do believe we see an active period that gets us to near normal before a decline after September 20 and an abrupt end by October 20. I do think that we see a lot of named storms, but because I am hedging a little more conservative I think we have fewer hurricane chances of those NS. That said, the ones that do become hurricanes will have a chance to become majors, leaving me to predict that 3 of the 6 hurricanes I project developing become majors. Final Note--Landfall Odds The past three years have seen high end storms landfall in the US, and I don't think that changes this year. With higher activity comes a greater statistical chance of a US landfall, and I do believe we have a fourth consecutive year with a major hurricane landfall in the continental United States. We'll see what happens. Happy tracking.

We're talking and doing the analysis of course, but I still think we're not going to have a good sense of this one until it gets into the SW Atlantic. Also interesting to note that with greater ridging across the Atlantic, this run of the GFS takes 92L across the basin and off the Bahamas in about 10 days. Even forces it SW. If the ridging is really coming on like that, that's interesting.

I still think this is a Maritime Canada/OTS risk. Maybe 55% Canada/45% OTS. Just not seeing the cutoff troughing we need on the models, and every mile east after DR/Haiti makes it less likely it ever hooks back west enough for NE IMO. I'd want to see smoothing of that hook north of the Antilles as the first step to even be in the game.

It's like folks along the Gulf Coast having an annual thread for winter storms. Except for Maritime Canada. They're on a heater recently. This one looks legit for them.

12z GFS with its strongest run yet. All systems go as soon as this closes off.

Yep, PTC 9 coming at 11am. Expecting to see watches/warnings up for the coast.

Same. I thought they named 91L but then I was like wait what?!? After all the defending I do of the NHC they do this to me.

Really want to see what recon finds during the early afternoon, but this looks to be organizing at a solid pace currently. Not sure I see any westerlies yet, but with convection trying to fire near the MLC if this does get a robust LLC it could pick up the organizational pace.

A day late, but the peak forecast is coming

Emily was legit. Gert was name worthy for like 14 minutes.

Emily was legit for a while. Gert makes little sense to me but I think it’s scientifically valid I guess

It’s gradually getting its act together, still. I’m thinking PTC at 11am because this is still a little broad. Would need to organize a little faster though imo to have a reasonable shot to maximize potential. First viz will be telling. Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91): Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located over the central Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form before it reaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline on Tuesday. Interests in southern Texas and northern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system as tropical storm watches or warnings are likely to be issued later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Well it looks like all three pieces of the former monsoon trough got named

Gotta watch what happens with that potential CAG in the Gulf/W. Caribbean at the end of the month.

This thread is always good for some laughs

Franklin with an absolutely epic tower going up right now.

Love it

I have a hard time seeing this coming apart before hitting one of the islands given how resilient it has been so far in the face of shear/dry air.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Six, located several hundred miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, on Tropical Storm Emily, located about 1000 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, and on newly formed Tropical Storm Franklin, located over the eastern Caribbean Sea. 1. Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91): Showers and thunderstorms have increased this evening, and are becoming better organized in association with a trough of low pressure located in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for development of this system as it moves westward at about 15 to 20 mph across the central Gulf of Mexico. A tropical depression or storm is likely to form as it approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by Tuesday. Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm watches or warnings may be necessary on Monday for portions of the southern Texas and northern Mexico coastlines. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. 2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is associated with a tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week while it moves west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.