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TauntonBlizzard2013

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Everything posted by TauntonBlizzard2013

  1. TauntonBlizzard2013
    There are also some Mets with hesitation on bigger totals, are we ignoring that? It’s okay to disagree. I want to see a more defined secondary development before I buy big totals. Others are free to think differently, and then we reconvene after the event to see what happened.
  2. TauntonBlizzard2013
    I think that’s the upper bound solution. Prolific overrunning followed by a defined, developing costal with CCB action in eastern areas. That is how someone scores 20. Hope it’s right, but that’s looking less likely after 12z IMO
  3. TauntonBlizzard2013
    I think the trend at 12z, minus the Canadian, was decidedly less potential CCB influence from another developing low pressure. I think that’s the key. And if we don’t get that, you have a hard time reaching big totals. Correct me if I’m wrong, but don’t we normally see huge ratios in a more traditional coastal? I’m not sure in this type of setup you are going to get 15+:1 ratios. However, even an inch of water at 12-13:1 is close to a foot of snow.
  4. TauntonBlizzard2013
    Euro is closer to an icon solution than anything else.
  5. TauntonBlizzard2013
    Watch out, you might catch shit for this lol. But I agree. I’m selling any secondary involvement. I’d guess this ends up a pretty uniform 6-10” spot 12
  6. TauntonBlizzard2013
    Obviously if we get a CCB assist in the second half, all bets are off. I think mid sized was a bad choice of words, probably should have just said, not upper echelon
  7. TauntonBlizzard2013
    I didn’t know not jumping immediately to a double digit floor was a bad thing lol. Just trying to be realistic
  8. TauntonBlizzard2013
    Actually develops the storm in time for a CCB assist in eastern ma. 1.5 qpf south of boston
  9. TauntonBlizzard2013
    I’d say most solutions have been closer to 10 if you toss the out of control Kuchera maps
  10. TauntonBlizzard2013
    I think some folks are overselling this thing a bit. Obviously, these are great solutions and everyone would take. It’s certainly not high end though? As modeled. A nice, mid sized snowstorm.
  11. TauntonBlizzard2013
    It pretty much is on the gfs and icon. That definitely puts a ceiling on this. Not that it won’t be good
  12. TauntonBlizzard2013
    18z Sunday start and still snowing at 06z Tuesday in eastern ma. When was the last time a snow event was flying out of here in 4-6 hours?
  13. TauntonBlizzard2013
    1.25” qpf across most of SNE. if ratios are a little better than 10:1, that’s a solid 10-15”
  14. TauntonBlizzard2013
    CMC is a little slower than the gfs, but end result will be better
  15. TauntonBlizzard2013
    36 hours or so? Sunday through late Monday for many
  16. TauntonBlizzard2013
    Solid long duration 8-12
  17. TauntonBlizzard2013
    The irony of your posting this is not lost on me.
  18. TauntonBlizzard2013
    Long duration on the gfs. Snowing well into Monday
  19. TauntonBlizzard2013
    Burying energy like the icon.
  20. TauntonBlizzard2013
    Kiss of death
  21. TauntonBlizzard2013
    I think many would, but there has been a lot of talk about high end potential. 8-14” is a great system. It’s not a KU, nor is it highly anomalous
  22. TauntonBlizzard2013
    Icon 10:1 is 5-10”. Not sure why I got bunned for floating the idea that this is what we could see. Maybe it’s more; I don’t know; but it’s definitely in play
  23. TauntonBlizzard2013
    Icon isn’t bad, still feel like it leaves a lot on the table.
  24. TauntonBlizzard2013
    I don’t disagree, but is that likely? 10-150 would be high end overrunning and then with no coastal assist? Im not downplaying it, but I’d be hesitant to forecast double digits at the moment. Still a lot to iron out
  25. TauntonBlizzard2013
    Decent trends overnight. we’re going to need some secondary development to truly make this substantial system, IMO. Without that, you’re looking at a ceiling of like 5-10” as opposed to 10-20”
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