TauntonBlizzard2013

I mentioned this last night. I think people are desperate for an event (I get it) and have latched onto the very few OP run solutions that have shown an event. Too many moving parts for my liking. You need to phase in a precise window. I’d put the probability of a big event probably under 10%

Is this actually true though? Seems like models are picking up on the energy lagging today, which would make sense.

This run isn’t going to do it. here we go. Bad start to 12z. Era of what can go wrong, will.

Kind of disagree on that. With the few big solutions we’ve seen, it’s looked good down that way, maybe even better than up here because of the better structure and dynamics

The airmass isn’t great, but it’s not putrid. Id take anything at this point. I’ll roll the dice with precip type issues to get a decent event

This is a week out and we are talking about a small window for this to phase to bring an appreciable event to this area. I think it’s asking a lot to have any sort of confidence in that type of accuracy before like Thursday. I think the odds on favorite is a missed phase at this point. A lot needs to go right, and there is a reason the ensembles are mediocre and we’ve only seen a few OP hits. Canadian also wants nothing to do with this, so it seems like people are completing tossing guidance that doesn’t have a storm

This is still a full week away. It’s best to have very low expectations until probably Thursday or Friday. 6z euro is a nice dose of reality

The reality is, we’ve had very few runs of any model that produce a good event

I’d roll the dice with that honestly. Might be issues for a bit but still a lot of snow.

Figures it’ll be cold and bare ground for weeks on end and as soon as the storm shows we get precip type issues. Whatever, gotta roll the dice at some point here or we are headed towards another rat regardless

I think the problem is that nobody makes a peep when we get the cold and snow cheerleading posts. If people were just being honest, there are a lot of people here who only want to hear the positives of winter weather.

There is absolutely nothing of note for the next few weeks, who cares where people vent frustration. do we need to keep this thread pristine for people to discuss 28 vs 30 degrees?

He called me unreadable last week, just returning the favor.

Straight up forecasting on hopes and prayers. Hate to see it. Unreadable if you will

Still light years away from being anything more than flurries for SNe though. need another 300 miles, at 100 hours

Virga north of NYC on that look

Appreciable precip is in South Jersey on the gfs and cmc. Anything north of that is light stuff or nothing. this needs a miracle, just like every other threat in the past 3 years

Probably a decent idea to check out for a few weeks and come back when the pattern relaxed a bit, just hope it’s not cutters

If an inch of snow excites you, sure

I think the NAO is one of the most overrated features we have here. Maybe it helps the high end potential on the margins, but I feel like we’ve done just fine without it before. There is nothing more miserable than cold and dry, I’d rather flirt with or rain than that. you aren’t even in the game when it’s dry

Negativity has been right though. Facts and results matter.

We’ve been saying this for days, and were mocked for it. Hope everyone enjoys the next 14-21 days of cool and dry

It’s not even worth the effort at this point. If something got to within 3 days, I’d be somewhat interested, but this stretch has always looked cool and dry here outside of a couple of random OP runs. Any shot we have is probably late month when the block relaxes a bit, but at that point, it’ll probably be rain.

I legitimately see nothing to be excited about at the moment. I know some are still hitting the delusion for the 6th, but that’s long gone. I don’t get excited for hour 300 OP runs anymore.

Truth hurts