Here’s the problem in my eyes, and this is completely serious.
The aggregate is not good. When you take every piece of guidance, ensemble, etc? They average out to a miss.
You also can’t really afford a compromise. A compromise of the euro and gfs solutions is a miss. You’re essentially hedging that every model is entirely wrong with the major players for the system. Because even models and ensembles with a hit are mostly confined to Se New England.
Given all the information, I’d put the odds of a region wide hit at like 5% and a plowable SE graze at like 15%