TauntonBlizzard2013
-
Posts
31,011 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by TauntonBlizzard2013
-
This storm is going to be a monster regardless of its impact on us. Obviously the snow amounts look to be taking a significant hit, but the storm itself will be impressive. -
Prob can’t take another shift east of that size though. Definitely playing with Fire.
-
Ends up a good deal east. You can probably toss the NAM. Trend isn’t your friend since the euro came out. Advantage euro it would appear right now.
-
Gfs looks like it’ll be somewhat east if 12z.
-
Pretty decent jog east at this lead. im curious to see what the gfs does. Wonder if these models (minus the NAM) trend towards the more east euro. Doesn’t mean the impact won’t still be major in Eastern NE... but you wonder.
-
Through 21 it is ESE from 12z
-
I don’t think the eps are much better than the OP. Doesn’t really help us out one way or another.
-
Unusually high all or nothing potential with this for sure. Not sure how viable middle range snow totals would be with crap rates and light qpf.
-
The ukie and euro don’t seem all that different to me. Tough to go against that
-
Isn’t it a little late in the game to be using ensembles? They will prob just follow the OP
-
Tough tough forecast. Euro is basically a quarter of what other models are showing. Barely scraping low end warning for most
-
euro says peel back those big totals. Woof... that’s a lot different than other guidance
-
You’d prob score 30” with that look
-
The RGEM did tick east from 6z but wow... what a crushing crushing blow for Rhode Island and Eastern ma.... has 12-16” down through 48 and still pounding with no end in sight
-
24-30” se mass that run.... that would be a top 5 storm here prob. Congrats Jimmy on that run, at least on the snow maps 30”+
-
The 3k NAM is just sick. People would be measuring in feet in eastern ma.
-
Yeah... I think the mixing element is being overplayed based on current guidance. Maybe up to the canal has issues? I really haven’t seen much that supports anybody off the cape mixing much if at all.
-
Well to be fair... if it was a huge hit we’d see “JMA crushes!” “ JMA is a huge hit” etc etc. Its Prob wrong.. but worth noting it shifted east a good deal
-
Huge shift in comparison to 12z. Impressive for this lead
-
JMA is way east.
-
This definitely illustrates how fragile the setup is. So many moving parts and a blockbuster solution is just a small fraction of the potential outcomes. Still a good chance for some snow, but I think the blockbuster amounts, as they always are, will be hard to get. NAM is still decent here... low end warning anyway
-
I’d like to see the euro bump west at 00z to be truly confident in at least a low end warning here. the gfs shifting towards a garbage solution doesn’t really mean much. It flops around a lot
-
Doing a quick count... there are about 20 members that would bury SNE there. Focus is definitely west of the mean.
-
It’s not a perfect correlation by any means, but the eps getting good snows right on to the cape is a good signal this air mass is better than the last couple
-
Eh. People are going to jump on me for whatever I say. It’s been the one model consistently showing a good hit. Not thrilled that it’s suddenly not doing that. Nothing else. glad other guidance looks better though.
