schoeppeya
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Everything posted by schoeppeya
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We literally do this every single storm storm. Because they always look this way. Regardless of if it’s attenuation or not, nobody should be surprised the backside eyewall looks ragged.
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Should get an extra boost from frictional convergence here pretty soon
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Eye is about to clear. Would imagine recon is going to find pressure significantly lower
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Eyewall complete close off and much more circular on radar, wouldnt be surprised to see another substantial drop in pressure when the new plane arrives
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The core looks pretty salty from the tampa radar
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Here we go. This is probably about the worst time timing wise for a more rapid intensification to start.
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I dont disagree, but the structure has been continuously improving, just slowly. Until the structure shows an obvious degradation I still think a period of more rapid intensification is on the table. ETA: Maybe with towers going up on both sides of the eye now we see more sustained eyewall convection
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Exactly what I have been trying to say, it clears out an eye and we get a 15-20 millibar drop in pressure fairly quickly and its basically right track with where its forecast to end up. There is still more than enough time for that to happen
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We are at a place now where if we clear out a solid eye the pressure will drop very quickly and suddenly be on track or overperforming models. I think its wayyyy beyond too early to say its going to underperform until something clearly disrupts the continued organizational process.
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Pressure down a couple millibars so dont really know that it was degraded per se
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Pretty close to getting the dry air mixed out of the center. Recon is almost there, should be an interesting couple hours.
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Definitely can see the eye trying to close off on visible
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My guess is we are probably just seeing some structural changes and it may try and clear out an eye before the pressure starts falling again. Even when storms are going through RI we see periods where the pressure drops pause while the storms "consolidates" before the next wave of intensification.
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Yeah recon shows how large the eye is with a huge area of lighter winds, pretty wild
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Certainly one of the most impressive satellite presentations I can remember for a tropical storm!
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towers blowing up over the llc now
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Definitely some southerly shear still but should be a more favorable vector and starting to see some storms wrap around the northern side of the storm.
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Yeah what a mess
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It does look like that swirl they initailized on is getting pulled back towards the convection
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Some pretty obvious westerly lower level flow on visible satellite. Looks like maybe centered under the convection at 80w 17N?
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In your graphic you can see the strong upper level winds out of the southwest and lower level winds in the hurricane are out of the southeast, creating a lot of turning with height/vertical wind shear. Just need an updraft to translate that shear to the surface.
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The recovery in presentation over the last two hours or so on satellite is one of the most impressive I can remember.
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MO/KS/AR/OK 2023-2024 Winter Discussion
schoeppeya replied to JoMo's topic in Central/Western States
The GFS has been the leader for this entire event... i'm in the GFS camp for now until proven otherwise. -
Y'all have confidence this is going to make its way down to the troposphere?
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Pretty incredible radar presentation right now
