bristolri_wx

Updated map from BOX. Also, their 4:45 PM AFD didn't issue an updated short term forecast...

Yup, not much better in Bristol. Considering the radar not much to show for it at all. No mixing but whatever is going on with the radar echoes isn't mixing down to reality at the surface. As others have commented, seems more like a March storm than the 1st day of February here. I was expecting 4-8", would surprised if I get that now - still a long way to go though.

Patience...

Newport is forecasted at 6-8". I think 4-7" is more realistic. It will stick as rates increase... give it time... but no one predicted 8-12" that close to the coast...

You know the GFS is on drugs when I'm in a jackpot zone...

You're in a great spot in RI for snow in general. I have friends in Cumberland and they always get more than me in almost any type of event.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/

BOX discussion is very bullish on the front end thump - hence the increase in the maps despite some mixing being forecast.

Way up compared to this morning.

I think 4-8” is a good call for most in the coastal plain except for right at the coast/cape, etc. Considering the preceding air mass it’s going to be unlikely that mix line gets as far NW as modeled before the precip lets up. As usual with 90% of storms we thread the needle...

Took the dog for a walk, about 2-3” on the ground. Light snow but occasionally moderate. Probably could have been a little more but we had mixed with sleet and graupel at times a little earlier this evening...

Sleeting in Portsmouth/Middletown/Newport

Definitely a northward trend for that second event on the Euro OP last 4 runs. Doubt this turns into a big event for us... probably a SNE scraper with a sharp cutoff. Something is better than nothing though!

Isn't the "long range" HRRR going to eventually replace the NAM? Thought I had read that somewhere a while back...

Ugh what a great setup for snow except for the fact there isn't much cold air around. How may close-to-the-benchmark storms are we gonna get where we have this rotten airmass to the north. At least it's not a cutter.

Is today‘a storm really a “grinch” storm? Yeah it’s raining, but there’s no snow on the ground, and it’s not that warm. Sure it’s not snow but feels more like a regular ole winter rain storm for the coastal plain, which we get often, then something I would associate as a “grinch” ruining the season storm. Maybe it’s just me on this one...

55. Snow is gone except for piles/drifts...

Euro has cutters on Christmas, 12/29, and 1/2. Though that 1/2 storm is looking like it wants to reform a low at the coast but right now it's reforming it right on top of us...

Ugh this is gonna be a mess down here. There’s only a couple of inches of snow left here so it will melt quickly. Not looking forward to a “Silent Night” because there’s no power... I guess howling winds will prevent it from being totally silent. Happy Holidays!

Nothing should be burned in my opinion. It’s just computer guidance. It’s why humans still make “real” weather forecasts. Sure the snowfall and QPF maps can be misleading but they are useful in making a forecast. All the different maps help you form a final forecast. This is why I have great respect for meteorologists who have gone through years of school and then have the historic knowledge on top when making forecasts. As hobbyists we screw up more because we don’t have the training and experience (though many here make excellent forecasts on a consistent basis). Maybe I’m just jaded at this point because of geographic location, but busts are busts and you move on to the next event. Even when I’m stuck in a snow hole, I’m always more interested as to what’s caustic going it, than being angered or distressed by it. 8-12” in NYC isn’t bad this time of year. They should have gone with that from the outset rather than the 12-18”. Many here were suspicious of high totals near the coastal areas, even down that way. Climo always plays a role!

LOL nice snow band moving through as a grand finale. It’s cold now so it’s sticking again. This storm delivered even though we ended up on low end of guidance here.

Been moderate snow here again for the last hour or so. Probably picked up about 2” since 8 AM.

Snow picking up again here. So is the wind...

Just finished shoveling about 6” of wet cement. So it was probably about 8” before compaction and sleet mixing. Inch of slush at the bottom. Not too shabby for December here. Maybe we can grab another inch or two in the next few hours.