bristolri_wx

Models still trying to figure out where the hell those two lows are going to phase or merge. Probably going to be jumping hundreds of miles each run for the next 36 hours - ensembles rule until then. Are they doing any air force recon data ingestion runs for this storm since it's potentially going to have some warm-core components?

"...But what I have also found is a connection in the stratosphere. The image below shows a warmer winter stratosphere and a weaker/disrupted Polar Vortex, following a slow hurricane season. This does not imply that hurricane season directly impacts the Polar Vortex, but there is likely a common El Niño factor at play that also includes the Pacific impacts and atmospheric waves. With this in mind, I loaded and plotted the latest forecast data for the stratosphere. Below you can see the Polar Vortex wind forecast, which is how we estimate its strength. In this latest seasonal data, we can clearly see an interesting deceleration and a potential disruption trend starting in early January..."

Interesting read/analysis: https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/super-el-nino-builds-atmospheric-hurricane-shield-winter-2026-2027-connections-united-states-canada-fa/

I would be hesitant to say that no one North of Philly is getting above normal snow. It only takes three-four large storms to get to climo totals in the coastal plain. The season could still avg +8 temps but 10 days of true winter spread across 3 months can get you above average. Not saying that will happen… just that it can if we are talking in absolutes. And it would still “feel like a ratter” if it’s rainy and 45 most of the winter outside of those 3-4 storms.

Radar estimated 3” here. Seems in the ballpark. A number of roads had sections flooded out in the East Bay Area when I was out earlier.

Deluge continues here. Video doesn’t necessarily do it justice.

Torrential here. Already about 1” of rain.

It was close to normal here, but it didn't seem like it. Never a good sign when your high total for the year for all of SNE is 51" in Gloucester, RI.

I feel like a DJF mean is going to be deceiving this Winter. There’s going to be a lot of fluctuation from November straight through to March even though the overall trend is warm and wet. My expectations are low enough where anything will be a pleasant surprise. Regardless of temps and snowfall there’s a high probability of it being an interesting winter season for weather to follow. I don’t see a repeat 2015-2016 happening which was just total boring shit weather almost bell to bell.

Any analogs show up with strong El Nino’s with extraordinarily low Atlantic ACE’s the preceding tropical season?

https://dem.ri.gov/agriculture/caps-program-pests-spotted-lanternfly

Torrential on the way from Bristol to Providence over the last 45 minutes. Portions of 114 Wampanoag Trail flooded.

I don't think this winter will be nearly as bad as people are expecting. December and January are likely to be warm and wet. How much of that ends up as snow will just be some luck on low pressure tracks/placements. I wouldn't put a lot of hope into a White Christmas for Southern New England. However, February and March are looking cooler on the long range forecasts, while still showing above normal precipitation. Could be a back-loaded winter. Locking in a below normal snowfall winter would be quite pre-mature at this point while the El Nino is still developing, and other factors may come into play.

Looks like a repeat of July. HHH the first week of August. After that much closer to normal or below...

That's not the look you want to see on the CFS if you like warm and dewey. One person in farting in North Dakota is enough to trigger the CFS to show above normal temps...