bristolri_wx

Torrential on the way from Bristol to Providence over the last 45 minutes. Portions of 114 Wampanoag Trail flooded.

I don't think this winter will be nearly as bad as people are expecting. December and January are likely to be warm and wet. How much of that ends up as snow will just be some luck on low pressure tracks/placements. I wouldn't put a lot of hope into a White Christmas for Southern New England. However, February and March are looking cooler on the long range forecasts, while still showing above normal precipitation. Could be a back-loaded winter. Locking in a below normal snowfall winter would be quite pre-mature at this point while the El Nino is still developing, and other factors may come into play.

Looks like a repeat of July. HHH the first week of August. After that much closer to normal or below...

That's not the look you want to see on the CFS if you like warm and dewey. One person in farting in North Dakota is enough to trigger the CFS to show above normal temps...

This one isn't over yet... still another 24 hours of rotating moisture to deal with...

Seems like a general forecast of 1-2" west of 495 would be a good one, with 2-4+" plus in western CT, western/central MA, and southern VT. If you kind of look at the operational models they are all sniffing out something similar but just varying in terms of the exact locations, which you really don't know until the radar fills in.

Still heavy rain here. Lots-o-street flooding. Looks like it's semi-regenerated in this area a little as that main cluster of heavy rain moved through and swung northeast.

Holy downpours here in Providence!

thunder and downpours here for two hours now... these things are moving fast though.

Wasn’t expecting severe here but we have been getting downpours here on and off for the last two hours as these little clusters of heavy showers move east.

Round two starting to pop-pop-popcorn…

Gotta love how that intial heavy cluster of storms will not cross Long Island Sound into CT. Seems like you could be at the beach where it's dry and go swimming and it would pour on you.

Smoke... pivotal-weather-hrrr-smoke_viden-us_ne.mp4 pivotal-weather-hrrr-smoke_sfc-us_ne.mp4

If this storm teaches anyone anything it’s you shouldn’t say a forecast has busted until the storm is actually done. Models were all over the place on QPF, and yes they also had some outrageous amounts that may have not ended up occurring, but it was always showing a 2.5 day event, and different phases or chapters. Areas of rain have been pulsing, regenerating, and dying out for the entire duration of this storm. It also shows how much room for improvement there needs to be for modeling to nail down with better accuracy for these types of weather events. But the common sense forecast didn’t waiver much. There will be some larger numbers reported once things wind down, and the widespread 1-2” with 3-5” isolated spots will not be too far off what was being forecasted in the mid-range.

Seems like another 1-2” of rain over next 24 hours looks to be reasonable for many south of the pike as the storm moves north and the east over the coastal waters. Every model has a different depiction of how it exactly turns up. HREF are juicy but should be taken with a grain of salt, but shows why no one is steining this storm at 5PM on Monday even though precip shield is scattered/ragged on radar at the moment. Someone is going to get a lot of rain though wherever that boundary settles in.