bristolri_wx

Some of theory has merit. It’s however just one factor among many. For those that like snow I personally still feel confident that for most of New England that this season will be better than the last few. Doesn’t mean it will be much better. The long range models continue to have a favorable pattern at 500mb look overall for the winter months. We just need some luck, which has also been lacking last new winters.

Beautiful here right now - sunny and 61.

If you move up to 850mb the CanSIPS and CFS aren't that different considering what you would expect from a long range forecast. Canada looks cold from December through March, and 500mb heights in Western NA are above normal, which is about the best you can hope for these days.

@RyRyB is all set.

Absolutely, I'll give you two forms to use.

I have an older, unhealthier maple right next to my yard that's already bare, and an older maple that's lost about half it's leaves. Same for the cherry tree in my front yard. Probably about 50% of the trees here are bare, with the other half split between various ranges of color turning and leaf loss. If you go towards the northern and western parts of RI it's more bare. Down here by the coast is where trees are still hanging on...

Yeah. I have a maple and a poplar in my yard that just started to turn this week. Obviously not the majority of trees but more than you would think in this neck of the woods.

45 - 55 could still cause problems in RI and SE MA. Had to do a lot of driving today, and 2/3 of the trees still have leaves. Some are just starting to turn color. Could result in more tree damage than in other parts of the region where the leaves are long gone.

12z HRRR looks windier than the 0z but nothing over 50 forecasted... NAM 3k maxing out at 45...

Well that was pretty crazy for about 20 minutes. Had some sort of pingers mixed in at the beginning.

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Pretty dire NHC discussion...

Of course it does. 1128hr has a cutter into Toronto with 3" of rain and temps in the 50's.

Lots of rain but not much wind. As usual wind gust model forecasts overdone.

How about them Pats. Amazing what competent coaching and some decent drafting and signing can do. Plus a weak strength of schedule . Not convinced they are "very good", but at least they are playoff worthy in a weak AFC.