bristolri_wx

Still heavy rain here. Lots-o-street flooding. Looks like it's semi-regenerated in this area a little as that main cluster of heavy rain moved through and swung northeast.

Holy downpours here in Providence!

thunder and downpours here for two hours now... these things are moving fast though.

Wasn’t expecting severe here but we have been getting downpours here on and off for the last two hours as these little clusters of heavy showers move east.

Round two starting to pop-pop-popcorn…

Gotta love how that intial heavy cluster of storms will not cross Long Island Sound into CT. Seems like you could be at the beach where it's dry and go swimming and it would pour on you.

Smoke... pivotal-weather-hrrr-smoke_viden-us_ne.mp4 pivotal-weather-hrrr-smoke_sfc-us_ne.mp4

If this storm teaches anyone anything it’s you shouldn’t say a forecast has busted until the storm is actually done. Models were all over the place on QPF, and yes they also had some outrageous amounts that may have not ended up occurring, but it was always showing a 2.5 day event, and different phases or chapters. Areas of rain have been pulsing, regenerating, and dying out for the entire duration of this storm. It also shows how much room for improvement there needs to be for modeling to nail down with better accuracy for these types of weather events. But the common sense forecast didn’t waiver much. There will be some larger numbers reported once things wind down, and the widespread 1-2” with 3-5” isolated spots will not be too far off what was being forecasted in the mid-range.

Seems like another 1-2” of rain over next 24 hours looks to be reasonable for many south of the pike as the storm moves north and the east over the coastal waters. Every model has a different depiction of how it exactly turns up. HREF are juicy but should be taken with a grain of salt, but shows why no one is steining this storm at 5PM on Monday even though precip shield is scattered/ragged on radar at the moment. Someone is going to get a lot of rain though wherever that boundary settles in.

Rain is not expected to really pick up until this evening into tonight for parts of CT, SE MA, and RI when the low to the south of Long Island is expected to continue pushing north. Up towards northern MA, rain may not start until around midnight. With the approaching low, a boundary will also push northward that will clash with high pressure, a PWAT plume with values up to (and even exceeding) 2.0", and a LLJ with winds around 30 kt at 925 mb. This would be a main driver for widespread heavy rainfall along the boundary, which guidance has still struggled to find a more concrete solution to. Rainfall totals between 1-3" are still expected over much of southern New England, with lighter totals expected closer to the NH border. Locally higher totals between 4-6" remain a possibility over parts of CT, RI, and SE MA. Even with the spread in guidance regarding where these totals may be, a number of models still key in on those areas as having the highest risk for these totals. For these reasons, a Flood Watch remains in effect through tomorrow afternoon for our counties in northern CT into RI and SE MA to the Cape.

Taking the opportunity to take advantage of these “cool” low 80’s temps to get the backyard ready for the 3rd/4th. Can’t believe it’s 81 at 10:45 at night.

Think it made it to 97 here today. Was hoping for a sea breeze to kick in but that didn’t happen.

Good morning from Colt State Park in Bristol, a hazy 79 degrees with light breeze.

You could end up with more, but the showers seem to be of a more scattered nature over the next 24 hours, so it could be more of a hit and miss situation. The HRRR shows 1 - 2" over next 18 hours, and it's been more accurate showing the QPF in short term than some of the other models.

On a non-holiday weekday when we need the rain, we can deal with the shitty temps for a day or two if that's what gets us some steady soaking precipitation.