bristolri_wx

Congrats Albuquerque?

There will be another relaxation. It makes sense. It would be harder for one not for one to occur... patterns only last so long in our area.

Sure. However that wasn't the context I was going for. 384 hour weenie maps were being posted with doom and gloom comments! While any weather scenario is always on the table, basing an opinion on a forecast outcome on that particular data set was quite silly. That's my point. If we are looking at a 5 day forecast for it to be bone dry, then it's definitely a very possible forecast and weather outcome. Cold air is around. There will be chances that aren't even showing up in the models. They may not work out but there will be trackable systems over the next few weeks.

I'm so confused?? Last time I checked in we were getting no meaningful snow or precipitation until April? Isn't that what those 384 HR OP runs were showing???

Nothing brings on snow more than no snow in the long range ensemble runs! Seriously, as long as it’s cold, there’s a chance something materializes. I would be more worried if they were showing relaxation like earlier in January, which they not look to be, just moderation of a very anomalous cold pattern. Euro weeklies still look decent in terms of pattern, and they have been pretty good this winter in terms of general 500mb conditions/outcomes…

And some freezing of Narragansett Bay… it’s been a while.

Deep winter in Colt State Park in Bristol.

150 miles north west and this board would still be interested... shit happens... pivotal-weather-ecmwf_full-700hv-nwatl.mp4

Nope, no interesting weather to discuss in this topic 6 days out... shit happens... sometimes the margin of error ends up being a big deal. On to the next threat... G19_sector_eus_GEOCOLOR_240fr_20260201-0914.mp4

Expected snowfall: 0.0"

I haven’t seen anything in the last 12 hours that leads me to believe that the forecast is locked in yet. It’s a large complex storm made of moving parts that in some cases haven’t formed yet. The low formation southeast of us is still oscillating to various degrees, which is leading to a wide variety of outcomes, even in the different scenarios that don’t lead to a large snowstorm for us. Impacts in western New England will be low, unless something dramatically changes. However central and eastern NE could be impacted heavily depending on today’s model output. Next 3-4 forecast cycles will probably become more consistent, especially as data sampling of the different parts improve. Most can make their decisions before bedtime this evening.

Considering the atmospheric scenario and the number of moving parts, there's a higher risk for this than usual on a 4 day forecast. I truly wouldn't dismiss any scenario for another 48 hours.

That's a tight gradient... the ultimate melt storm as visualized...