hudsonvalley21

I put down a base coat of Calcium Chloride last night. And shoveld around 2pm. It came off easy, there was about an inch of top crusted slush. I put down the Calcium Chloride again and have black driveway. And the hits keep on comming. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 624 PM EST TUE JAN 18 2011 .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... WITH SURFACE TROUGH FROM COASTAL LOW EXTENDED ACROSS THE REGION AND SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP POPS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND END IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE HOW MUCH QPF BUT GENERALLY LIGHT. WARMING DURING THE DAY WITH ANY FREEZING RAIN OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN WILL AFFECT THE TRANSITION. RIDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THEN TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS THURSDAY WILL DEVELOP A LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY PASSING THE AREA FRIDAY. STILL SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF FARTHER EAST THAN THE NAM. WITH COLDER AIR BACK IN PLACE BY THURSDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THERE IS A POT ENTAIL FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW...AND IF THE STORM TRACKS FARTHER TO THE WEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION. FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MAV/GFS GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... COASTAL LOW PUSHES WELL TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ARCTIC AIR CIRCULATING AROUND THE HIGH DROPS INTO THE REGION...SETTING UP CONDITIONS FOR A COLD WEEKEND. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS TO THE TEENS NEAR THE COASTS. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MOSTLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. THE HIGH SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LEADING TO LOWS NEAR ZERO OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS. DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U.S. SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOP OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CAROLINA/FLORIDA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THAT PROPAGATES WELL EAST OF THE REGION. FURTHER NORTH...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. GFS CARRIES THE LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY...WHILE ECMWF DISSIPATES IT BEFORE IT REACHES NEW ENGLAND. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT SNOW FROM THE POTENTIAL CLIPPER SYSTEM. NEXT DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A POTENTIAL OFFSHORE LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY AND MOVES UP THE COAST INTO WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THESE SYSTEMS. BELOW NORMAL...AND BELOW FREEZING...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO ANY PRECIP WOULD LIKELY FALL AS SNOW. &&

Good to hear that she made it in ok. As for her boss, what an arse hole.

Up to 22.0 here

Me too. If the NAM comes thru with the QPF. It's going to be a mess. Keep the flashlights charged, might need them tomorrow night. Currently 20.7/1

4pm obs. HUDSON VALLEY CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS NEWBURGH MOCLDY 19 3 49 E8 30.31S WCI 9 MONTGOMERY MOCLDY 20 2 45 N3 30.29F POUGHKEEPSIE CLEAR 22 -7 27 CALM 30.33R ALBANY MOCLDY 13 -6 42 CALM 30.35R This will allow for some evap.cooling later on. ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY... SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY * HAZARDS...SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN A QUARTER TO UP TO A HALF AN INCH OF ICE ON TOP OF THE SNOW AND SLEET FROM TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. * TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...THEN SLOWLY RISE TOWARDS THE FREEZING MARK TUESDAY. ANY AREAS THAT GO ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY...WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT. * TIMING...SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BY AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS COULD CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A PERIOD OF TIME IN THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

12z NAM came in wetter than the previous 00z run for KSWF. The 00z had 0.87 the 12z has 1.42. Could have some serious ice issues if the NAM is right. OKX disc. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 937 AM EST MON JAN 17 2011 .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ALL NOW AGREE THAT THE DAMMING HIGH WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING OVER FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS DAMMING HIGH WILL SERVE TO HELP KEEP COLD AIR TRAPPED IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY FROM INTERIOR SW CT...WEST TO ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTIES...WHERE TEMPERATURES MIGHT NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE EVENT. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE LOW WILL BE NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AROUND 12Z TUESDAY AND NEAR CAPE COD BY 6Z WEDNESDAY...PASSING IN BETWEEN LONG ISLAND AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...AND DEEPENING AROUND 10 HPA AS IT DOES SO. THE DAMMING HIGH WILL SERVE AS AN OVER RUNNING SURFACE FOR MOISTURE RIDING N ON A S-SE 20-30 KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE RESULT IS SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION FROM SW TO NE MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE AND HOW FAST TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING...THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST...AND DEEP THE LOW LEVELS WARM ABOVE FREEZING. THE NAM OFFERS THE LEAST AMOUNT OFF...AND THE SHALLOWEST WARMING...THE GFS IS THE WARMEST...AND HAS THE DEEPEST WARM LAYER...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. HOW THIS PLAYS OUT WILL DETERMINE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...HOW QUICKLY THE SNOW MIXES/CHANGES TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN - AND TO ALL RAIN ACROSS COASTAL AREAS INCLUDING NYC. FOR NOW OPTED FOR A BLEND OF NAM/GFS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FEATURES. WHAT DOES APPEAR FAIRLY CERTAIN...IS THAT THERE WILL BE AN ACCUMULATING SNOW BEFORE THE MIXING BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH ACROSS LONG ISLAND. 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE NYC METRO AND COASTAL CT...AND 2-4 INCHES ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NE NJ...AND CT...WHERE JUST SNOW WILL CONTINUE LONGER...INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN HOW MUCH FREEZING RAIN FALLS AFTER THIS...BEFORE A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FOR ALL BUT MOST LIKELY INTERIOR SW CT...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW GOING WITH A GLAZE TO UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACROSS THE NYC METRO AND COASTAL AND SE CT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A HALF AN INCH OF ICE...AND MAYBE MORE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW ACTUALLY FALLS...AND IF TEMPERATURES GET ABOVE FREEZING...ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...SW CT...AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTY. IN THESE AREAS...SOME LOCATIONS MIGHT NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING...AND THOSE THAT DO...LIKELY WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE LOCATIONS FROM 1 AM TUESDAY THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LATER TODAY...DEPENDING ON CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST A GLAZE OF ICE IN A GIVEN ZONE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...BLENDED MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND ADDED A DEGREE (TO FAVOR WARMER GUIDANCE) FOR LOWS TONIGHT. THESE SHOULD BE IN THE EVENING...WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES INTO THE OVERNIGHT. FOR TUESDAY...USED NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AS THEY HAVE HISTORICALLY FARED VERY WELL IN THESE IN-SITU DAMMING SITUATIONS. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT BLENDED MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. &&

Sorry to hear this. Thank god you did not fall off the lader and had more injuries or worse. I made an attempt at mine today but it's solid ice in the gutters and downspouts. This won't be going anywhere soon. Feel better.

Not yet ,still at 9.1. Must be the river temp fighting it off.

Heat wave here 9.1. Forcast low is 8, think I'll beat that soon.

Coldest of the season so far ,currently at 1.8

Forcast low IMBY is 10. Down to 18.3 so far.

Finished up with 9.2" here on the east side of the county.

Here too picked up nicely. Also, my temp fell down 1 full deg in 1/2 an hour. Now 23.1

Just started snowing here in eastern Orange county. 24.1/16

Radar is starting to pop. Pertty cool.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0019 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 PM CST TUE JAN 11 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA...NJ...SERN NY AND SRN CT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 120100Z - 120600Z SNOWFALL RATES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING FROM ERN PA AND NJ THROUGH SERN NY AND SRN CT. RATES LOCALLY GREATER THAN 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z. THIS EVENING A STRONG 150+ KT UPPER JET WAS MOVING EWD THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE OH VALLEY. AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING WITHIN EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE WILL OVERTAKE BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD...RESULTING IN DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW OFF THE VA COAST AS IT LIFTS NWD OVERNIGHT. THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND A STRENGTHENING LLJ WHICH WILL AUGMENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD NWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. TRENDS ALREADY INDICATE SNOW EXPANDING IN COVERAGE FROM ERN PA INTO NJ. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BECOME ORGANIZED AS BANDS LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN UPPER JET EXIT REGION WILL RESULT IN CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALSO POSSIBLE. A DEEP SUBFREEZING LAYER WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY AOA -5C WILL EXIST BENEATH THE DEVELOPING UNSTABLE LAYER WHICH COULD SERVE TO FURTHER AUGMENT SNOWFLAKE GROWTH THROUGH AGGREGATION. RATES WILL LIKELY LOCALLY EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITHIN CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.

12z NAM run today has backed off on the QPF to 0.78 for KSWF

00z NAM came in with 1.37 of QPF for KSWF :snowman: http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KSWF.txt

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 427 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2011 .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES INTO MON...SO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EXPECTED WITH ONLY FEW-SCT STRATOCU ATOP THE INVERSION...AND MIXING BELOW RESULTING IN ONE MORE DAY OF GUSTY NW WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM ONTARIO MON NIGHT. UNDERCUT COLDEST MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS I NORMALLY WOULD FOR SNOW COVERED AREAS...SINCE A 15-20 KT NORTHERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN LATE. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WHAT WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER MAJOR SNOWSTORM...THE SECOND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN JUST A LITTLE OVER TWO WEEKS AND THE THIRD FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CT! SIDED WITH A 12Z NAM/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE NASCENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SAT WV IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED BAROCLINIC LEAF AND COMMA HEAD...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HOUR ALREADY TAKING PLACE IN THE ARKLATEX REGION...AND A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM NEAR A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE S OF MEXICO...AND ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PICKED UP ON THIS. PROLIFIC LIGHTNING OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MAY BE INDICATIVE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THAN MOST MODEL FORECASTS...WHICH MAY FORCE AN EVENTUAL FARTHER W LOW TRACK...AND THE NAM SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS. EVEN SO...STRONG ISALLOBARIC N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW INDUCED BY RAPID PRESSURE FALLS AS THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW MOVES FROM NE OF HATTERAS TO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MONTAUK AND 40N/70W TUE NIGHT BY 12Z WED SHOULD KEEP PRECIP ALL SNOW OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH ONLY THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND STILL IN QUESTION. WEAKER/LESS WET GFS SFC SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR LESS OF AN ISALLOBARIC LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT AND THEREFORE MORE ONSHORE AND BLYR WARMING...WITH MIXED PRECIP TUE NIGHT ALL THE WAY BACK TO COASTAL CT AND ALL RAIN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT OVER LONG ISLAND. THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN REJECTED ESPECIALLY SINCE THE GFS WAS ALSO TOO WARM IN COASTAL SECTIONS FOR THE LATE DECEMBER BLIZZARD. WINDS COULD ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN NYC AND COASTAL SECTIONS DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY WHETHER THEY WILL COINCIDE WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD TO PRODUCE TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AS WITH THE LATE DECEMBER STORM. THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES IS RUNNING HIGH...WITH LIKELIHOOD OF MUCH GREATER TOTALS WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING SETS UP...MUCH TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR. HWO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS POTENTIAL... AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WATCHES COULD BE RAISED OVERNIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM PASSES E OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY WED...TROUGHING LAGGING BEHIND COULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO PERSIST INTO WED AFTERNOON...WHILE A BLUSTERY NW WIND CONTINUES.-- End Changed Discussion --

Thanks for the breakdown. here is the 12z NAM for KSWF showing 1.19 of QPF thru 84 hrs. 850s just a touch warmer. http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_Kswf.txt

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1123 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2011 .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE STORM FOR LATE TUE INTO WED. LATEST 12Z DATA CONTINUES TO HONE IN ON A TRACK WHICH WOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA. HWO INDICATES AN INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE. HAVE INTRODUCED A MIX WITH RAIN ACROSS EXTREME ERN LI AS THE TRACK HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WWD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS INDICATE ONLY A PERIOD OF MIXING OR CHANGEOVER...AS OPPOSED TO A MAINLY RAIN EVENT. DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM STILL UNRESOLVED AS WELL. ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS. SUBTROPICAL TAP ALREADY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR...SO MODELS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOW ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE. STORM EXITS LATE WED WITH FAIR WEATHER THRU FRI. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING IN AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND LIGHT PCPN LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE FCST.-- End Changed Discussion --

Agree, It's not etched in stone yet. More of a west shift will bring those p-type issues to LI but more love for us to the north and west of NYC. Also, OKX getting a little stronger with their wording. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 436 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2011 436 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A SIGNIFICANT TO POSSIBLY VERY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A COASTAL LOW FORECAST TO LIKELY TRACK NEAR THE 40 NORTH/70 WEST BENCHMARK LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...THEN IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS STORM...AND EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE STORM. EVEN WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM LIKELY WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE EVENT EAST OF THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA...AND LOWER NORTHWEST OF THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA AT THIS TIME.

Got down to 10 last night. Now the eyes turn to the Tues-Wed event. Looks to be trending closer to the coast. Nice write-up by OKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 405 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2011 .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY INCREASING... LOOKING AT THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS...IT APPEARS THE GFS IS A SOUTHERN/EASTERN OUTLIER...AND THE 9Z SREF A NORTHERN/WESTERN OUTLIER WITH THE STORM WHEN COMPARED TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECWMF. THE 12Z GEFS MEAN TRACKS THE STORM OVER THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AT 6Z WEDNESDAY...WITH ECMWF JUST TO THE NW OF THE BENCHMARK AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS HAVE OPTED FOR A ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED. OTHER THAN THE SREF SOLUTION...THERE IS A CLEAR CONSENSUS FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT...WITH THIS IDEA BEING FOLLOWED. THE FIRST PART OF THE STORM...A CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN AZ...IS WELL RESOLVED BY LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS...AND IS HANDLED FAIRLY SIMILARLY BY ALL MODELS. THE SECOND PIECE OF THE EQUATION ENERGY FORECAST TO DIVE DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY TONIGHT/SUNDAY IS STILL OVER THE NE PACIFIC...SO HOPEFULLY EITHER THE 00Z OR 12Z SUNDAY BALLOON LAUNCHES WILL CAPTURE THIS FEATURE AND PROVIDE INCREASED CONFIDENCE. THE GFS IS A FAST/SHEARED OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND AS A RESULT DOES NOT STRENGTHEN THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING THAT MOVES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY SHARPLY ENOUGH (THIS IS A KNOWN GFS BIAS - NOT SHARPENING THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ENOUGH). THE RESULT IS A MORE SOUTHERN/EASTERN SOLUTION IN THE GFS. THE OTHER MODELS HANDLE THIS DOWNSTREAM RIDGING BETTER...SO HAVE THE SETUP FOR A LOW TRACKING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND INTENSIFYING MORE THAN THE GFS. BASED ON THE ABOVE HAVE CHANCE POPS SW 1/2...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NE 1/2 OF AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY THROUGHOUT BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT FAR NW ZONES...WHERE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING GIVES PRUDENCE TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. TAPER POPS OFF FROM NW TO SE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THURSDAY BEING DRY. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS AMOUNTS...THE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR A SIGNIFICANT TO VERY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. IF THE STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT...THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS...WHICH WOULD ALSO CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS LATTER IDEA IS THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THIS WILL ENHANCE WORDING IN THE HWO...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW - EMPHASIZING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS IDEA IS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA FOR NOW. STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...BUT GIVEN SOLID CONSISTENCY OF GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND THE ECMWF OVER ITS PAST FEW RUNS...CONFIDENCE IN A WINTER STORM...POSSIBLY A MAJOR ONE...IS INCREASING IN THE LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. STAY TUNED.

I will not challange her measurements. Sounds good to me. Still light snow as of 4pm and 5" down on the east side of the county.

Light stuff here on the east side of the county. I have 0.5" down so far. It started around 6:30am.