We could really use this QPF map to come to fruition. Maybe a couple of rounds of activity tomorrow.
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022
Northern Mid Atlantic...
Pre-frontal surface troughing, extending from near the migratory low
southward through the Mid Atlantic, likely will become the focus for
the more prominent boundary-layer destabilization during the day
Monday. The boundary-layer probably will become characterized by
seasonably high moisture content, but lower/mid tropospheric lapse
rates are expected to be generally weak, and most guidance suggests
that CAPE may not reach 1000 J/kg. However, a belt of 30-40+ kt
southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer will potentially
contribute to an environment conducive to organized convection given
sufficient destabilization. It is possible that this could include
a couple of supercells with a risk for tornadoes, particularly
across the Poconos and Catskills into Hudson Valley vicinity by late
Monday afternoon.