hudsonvalley21

FYI That line east of KBGM has a tor warning. You had interest in that line earlier. Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Binghamton NY 637 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 NYC025-182300- /O.CON.KBGM.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-260718T2300Z/ Delaware NY- 637 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN DELAWARE COUNTY... At 636 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Harvard, or near Walton, moving east at 40 mph.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector_band.php?sat=G19&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector_band.php?sat=G19&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

Dew pt. Up to 70 now here at KSWF. Was at 66 at 12z

SPC AC 181219 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0719 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...MID ATLANTIC AND LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast this afternoon and evening. Damaging gusts will be the primary threat, but a few tornadoes are possible, including perhaps a strong tornado. ...OH Valley and Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough moving southeast over the Upper Great Lakes towards the Northeast during the period. The primary upper vorticity max will rotate through the base of the larger-scale trough and through the St. Lawrence Valley, before an upstream disturbance west of James Bay this morning pivots southeast and reaches Maine/eastern Quebec by early Sunday. Surface analysis this morning places a 1004-mb low north of Georgian Bay and a cold front extending west-southwestward into northern IA. An attendant warm front arching southeastward through the Lower Great Lakes and draped over the Mid-Atlantic states will advance northward as the cyclone develops east towards northern Maine by late evening. Concurrently, the cold front will push southeast across much of Great Lakes into the OH Valley. South of the boundary, a very moist air mass was sampled this morning by 12 UTC raobs and surface observations (i.e., upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints). A few thunderstorm clusters this morning have developed near the warm frontal zone from the Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic states. The early day storm activity will likely be limited in storm vigor, due in part to initially widespread cloud cover inhibiting strong heating in the areas downstream over parts of PA/NY. Gradual dissipation of clouds and heating coupled with the northeastward advancement of the warm sector will promote a broad area to become moderately to strongly unstable later today (1000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) from the OH Valley eastward into the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast. A belt of westerly 30-45 kt 700-mb flow from northern VA into the Northeast will aid in storm organization and severe potential this afternoon and evening. Models differ substantially regarding evolution/timing of possible bands of storms and clusters with embedded cells. Regardless of specific details, it seems plausible several multicellular bands of storms will develop during peak heating and organize as these bands move east. Some of the more intense cells will potentially become supercellular posing an all-hazards severe risk. Have largely unchanged the previous outlook given the inherent thunderstorm evolution-based uncertainties. Potentially widespread damaging gusts [50-60 mph, locally stronger (55-70 mph) perhaps paralleling the I-95 corridor from Chesapeake Bay into southern New England]. A few tornadoes are possible both from linear and cellular storm structures given some low-level hodograph enlargement and moist low levels.

We’ll have to see after the first batch gets thru around 1 pm or so and see how much clearing and destabilization occurs for the 2nd line later. The less action in the first line will help out for stronger action later. Hopefully the Mesoscale models pick up on the action in a few hours. So it’s wait and see for a little bit. SPC will have an update in a few minutes, we’ll see their thoughts.

Definitely cut the temps here, currently 83 with the smoke visibility about 3 miles

5.24” will do it here. Time to drain some water out of the pool.

Wow that sucks. I’m lucky here in New Windsor having power. Just broke the 5” reading with 5.03” currently.

Raining here too, up to 4.94”. Current radar to our south is filling in again

Thanks for the link. Current radar is validating the discussion in our area. Up to 4.48” since 8pm last night.

Impressive, the first round last night really made this happen.

3.85” as of 1pm for the event total so far from 8pm last night. Currently light rain falling.

3.85” as of 1pm for the event total so far from 8pm last night. Currently light rain falling.

Good to hear that you’re not in the bullseye. Some of the Mesoscale models are showing up to around 9” of QPF thru Tuesday in different areas it all depends on where these cells set up shop and just dump.

It’s just to my north and west, hearing the thunder but no rain here yet. FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Urban and small stream flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected. * WHERE...A portion of southeast New York, including the following county, Orange. * WHEN...Until 915 PM EDT. * IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 723 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding. Overflowing poor drainage areas will cause minor flooding in the advisory area. Between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Middletown, Montgomery, Scotchtown, Mechanicstown, Maybrook, Circleville and Bullville. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

I’m concerned about for weekend campers along the Delaware River. Hopefully they all check out today for their safety. A few cells currently popping up and not much movement with them.

I was over in Wappengers yesterday when it came thru. Winds around 40 not sure how much rain fell, guessing on the person’s pool I’d say 1.5 to 2.0” in an hour. Seen several limbs down but no power outages, on my way bay to the west side of the Hudson. IMBY had only 0.05” in the bucket with no noticeable wind damage. Sorry to hear about your loss of power. Hopefully back on by now. Some of the Mesoscale models are rather bullish on QPF amounts thru Tuesday, some showing around 9”. It will be a dependent on where these cells set up shop and just dump.

Yup

July DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 2.1 2.4 1.9 2.6 2.3 2.0 2.3 1.3 1.9

0.36 here. A slight chance of showers tomorrow morning. Looks like the heat comes back next week. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1034 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026 DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Area in warm sector with southerly flow. The southerly flow increases this afternoon becoming gusty along parts of the coast. The rain showers with left front quad dynamics will be less expansive and decrease in probability later this morning when the dynamics are less favorable. Showers with possible embedded thunderstorms into early this morning will be capable of producing locally heavy rain. There will be building instability but drier air and a lack of vertical moisture. So, the cold front is not expected to result in additional shower and thunderstorm activity as it approaches this afternoon and moves across this evening into overnight. The chances for showers increase late tonight into Saturday as a wave of low pressure develops along the cold front south of the region. There may be enough elevated instability for a possible thunderstorm but probabilities for these are slight chance. Max temperatures in the 80s today for most locations and more in the 70s to near 80 Saturday with that greater chance of showers. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Building heat potential late weekend into next week. Mainly dry but a few disturbances may bring about some periodic showers and thunderstorms next week. High pressure moves in by Sunday and into Monday. This high pressure area settles south of the region and becomes based in Western Atlantic thereafter. Mainly dry conditions expected Saturday night and through the rest of the weekend as well as through Monday. Chances for any showers and thunderstorms will be tied more to any occasional disturbances, weak waves of low pressure or embedded shortwaves in the mid level flow aloft Tuesday onward next week. There are relatively higher chances as the week progresses as there will be more daytime instability to help make the air more buoyant. The forecast used a blend of forecast guidance for late weekend into next week for temperatures. Forecast high temperatures well into the 80s for Monday will get more into the 90s as the week progresses with more of the region getting into the 90s range. With the synoptic setup, airmass will become humid as well, with potential max heat indices in the mid 90s to near 100 range for mid to late next week.

0.99” here.

0.77” in the bucket so far today.

0.77” in the bucket so far today. Well needed.

A few gusts here and rumbles. 0.06” in the bucket. Pulsed down just before hitting here.