Sydney Claridge

It seems that the echo tops and radar returns estimated by the DFW radar have increased on that area of precipitation near Hico and Meridian; let's see if this is trying to initiate into something.

It looks pretty minor on radar right now, but I wonder about that little area of precipitation around Hico and Meridian right now, though it looks like it is struggling. If it can initiate into something bigger, on the track the storms seem to be taking, it could be a threat to DFW later on. Otherwise, it looks like DFW may have to wait for the storms that are currently down around Brownwood, unless something else tries to fire up. I've also noticed light radar returns over Parker County and have been wondering if they represent some sort of wind shift or boundary; there also seems to be some sort of boundary about midway between Breckenridge and Mineral Wells.

Surface CAPE has also rapidly increased (3000-3500 J/kg) and so has the MLCAPE (2000-2500 J/kg) per SPC Mesoanalysis for Fort Worth and Tarrant County. Once this cap breaks I have a feeling there could be some big storms.

Got some good clearing (partly cloudy) here in Fort Worth. Now it’s just a matter of waiting for the storms to fire up I guess.

18z and 00z HRRR runs have discrete storms forming up near DFW at around 6-7pm or so: NAM and NAM3K (0z) have the storms moving through DFW about 3 hours later (and more linear on the 3K). Texas Tech's model also shows storms for DFW around the 7pm timeframe as well. Not total agreement among the CAMs shown on Pivotal Weather (including the HRW models) though; that said, I'm getting a bit concerned about the possibility of another damaging hailstorm in/near DFW if one of the models showing discrete storms does verify. I know there were some issues about VBV brought up with respect to the tornado threat though, but some of the models I've been looking at seem to lessen that a little bit (I believe).

SPC sticking with an Enhanced Risk for Day 2. Northern edge of the 30% hatched zone shifted north to include OKC now as well. The entire 30% hatched zone encompasses the I-35 corridor from OKC to Austin. Sig hatching is for hail per the maximum risk by hazard section of the outlook, but they also mention 10% TOR probabilities (non-hatched) as a maximum risk too.

I'm starting to get a bit concerned here in Fort Worth. The 18z NAM-based and GFS-based models show the storm threat a bit later though (either in the evening or early overnight hours), so maybe if those verify that could temper things a bit.

The NAM (today's 18z run) is suggesting some potential for tornadic supercells near and east of DFW, albeit with some VBV issues, though like StormChaser4Life said, it's long-range NAM so take it with a grain of salt. GFS-based models show less EHI across the North Texas area, and would suggest more of a threat in East Texas.

TOR probabilities dropped back to 5% in SE OH.

And it looks like another batch of precipitation is trying to get going east of Cincinnati (but west of that band extending across KY into central OH), in the area near Mt Orab.

Looks like that storm has also left behind a gust front from Springfield down towards Xenia.

Columbus is going to have to watch that area of storms moving in from the south, especially for the eastern half of the metro area. I believe that was the line that the earlier models really wanted to blow up into something significant. The HRRR has kind of backed down a bit though, but it is also not handling the storms near Dayton very well either.

I thought for some reason it looked like that storm near Dayton was trying to develop a hook. I have a friend who is from New Carlisle so I'm definitely watching this.

Definitely eying those storms near Cincinnati for sure. Seems to be a pretty good environment there per SPC mesoanalysis.

Looks like an area of convection might be trying to go up west of Cincinnati, near Versailles, IN. Looks fairly insignificant even relative to the storms SW of Bloomington, IN for the moment, though. EDIT: Meanwhile, based on this weather station at OSU, temperatures in Columbus are rising fast. Mid-60s are already present at the time of this edit.

Not surprised at all. I had thought the area between Columbus and Pittsburgh was going to be the primary focus for tornadic development, but I'm wondering a bit about areas to the west of that 10% outline as well. The train of thought so far (and supported by the models, esp. HRRR) seems to be that storms will develop out ahead of those storms currently in south-central Indiana at the moment, which look like they have started to strengthen (though still sub-severe) based on the radar returns.

Those temperatures seem to be rising like a rocket ship... upper 60s to near 70 around Cincinnati now, with mid-to-upper 50s in Columbus based on Wundermap data. I'm eagerly awaiting the 1630z SPC outlook. The storms west of Louisville seem to be behaving themselves right now, but with temperatures in the lower-to-mid-70s (and dews in the upper 50s to lower 60s) out ahead of them, I don't know how much longer that will be the case. If those dews can get any higher, I bet it's only a matter of time before they strengthen.

That area with the clearing near and east of Cincinnati has rapidly warmed into the mid-60s, per Wundermap. Though I'm not sure of the reliability of the observations there, some personal weather stations are showing dewpoints in the lower 60s.

Visible satellite suggesting that clearing has started in SW OH just east of Cincinnati. Warm front currently appears to be along the Ohio River at the KY/IN border, east to just south of Cincinnati. I'm starting to wonder about the area of storms forming up near Evansville and whether they might try to evolve into something more significant later in the day. A few of the models (HRRR, RAP, NAM) seem to suggest that some storms will fire up ahead of those later in the day. There's also another area of minor showers/storms east of Indianapolis, though those are currently north of the warm front, and the ones down by Evansville are in the warm sector.

Might as well start a thread for this given the 30% Day 4 outlook issued by SPC valid for April 17th: I wonder how major this will be given the large 30% area outlined by SPC so far in advance. The easternmost areas of this sub may still see some activity on the 18th:

Tornado debris signature (TDS) southwest of Vance, AL per ABC 33/40 livestream. EDIT: TDS now just west of the Mercedes plant. EDIT 2: TDS has now faded near Brookwood Parkway and George Newell Road. Now watching storm south of Marion in Perry County.

Even though this isn't my subforum, I might as well start a thread for this as there is an enhanced risk in place across mainly southeastern Ohio, though central Ohio (incl. Columbus) is on the edge of the enhanced risk. There are 30% wind / 15% hail / 5% tornado probabilities so far. The 5z HRRR run tries to bring some potent looking supercells through/near the Columbus metro area and into NE OH. If that run verifies I wouldn't be surprised to see higher TOR probabilities. Earlier HRRR runs are a bit more tempered though, though suggestive of discrete storms. 0z NAM and NAM3K seem pretty nasty too, with areas of high (4+) 0-3km EHI in southern and eastern Ohio. GFS-based models are a lot more bearish though. Here's the HRRR run I'm referring to. Definitely a little bullish on the potential: EDIT: and the 6z HRRR run still suggests a supercell (or supercells) forming in the area of the Columbus metro, and moving into NE OH. EDIT 2: the HRRR runs since 5z (including 6z, 7z, and 8z) have been awfully persistent with forecasting discrete storms in central OH. RAP also seems to be keeping things somewhat discrete (at least in central OH) as well. 6z NAM3K is more a threat for SE OH.

Yep, seems to be a possible tornadic signature just south of Demopolis.

Yes, it looks like that storm (between Rockdale and Lexington) has developed a hook. Would be concerned for the Bryan area if the storm tried to take a right turn, though it looks to pass north of there.

Golf-ball sized hail just reported in the area of Six Flags Fiesta Texas and quarter size hail at UTSA. The KSAT live stream suggests more significant hail to the north. EDIT: Baseball-sized hail north of Fiesta Texas (along Washita Way in Legend Hills). At least golf-ball sized hail in the Dominion. Seems like a major hail storm is underway in northern Bexar County.