Will - Rutgers

i refuse to fund jamokes of any sort. gadflies, dinguses, and ne'er-do-wells are also on my s-list.

so if the GFS is de-coupled from the ocean why do we use it for tropical systems. or are there other models in a similar state. its intensity forecasts were hot garbage all last year and i haven't seen a tremendous change (or maybe there will be a 905 over cape hatteras at the end of the week). buying futures on plywood.

I can't believe this thing could stall out right over the Carolinas. This is going to be a massive disaster if that happens.

Depending on the path Florence takes there could be additional tornado potential later in the week as the right side of the storm crosses the area.

GOES-16 images show this thing getting obliterated lol. I know it's only temporary but damn that shear is rude. Funny how you can go from perfect CDO to linoleum blownapart in 24 hours.

Oh absolutely, and you might be thinking of Jose last year, which was around the benchmark's latitude and then just went nowhere. It'll always depend on the setup. And some of the modelling indicates scenarios where high pressure really traps this thing. I'm just a hard sell on it until we get much closer. The storm is going to change in size and intensity, probably very significantly, in a way that will change how it interacts with any ridging. The strength and positioning of said ridging isn't set in stone, and then you'll have more discrete low pressure features that could give this a lane to escape, which are even harder to model. Just way too early.

Don't forget, the GFS had major issues last year with predicting storm strengths. Really abysmal. Also I'm guessing part of the reason it's slow to weaken is baroclinic enhancement trading off against increasing shear and decreasing SSTs.

It'll depend on the strength of the ridge and any kickers that might come along but all else being equal I think there's a fairly significant model bias to slowing storms down too much as they get caught in the westerlies. Seems like extratropical and tropical systems tend to clear a good deal faster than they get modelled. How many times on this board do you hear that such-and-such model shows snow starting on Friday night and it's still snowing at hour 72, and then that doesn't happen, lol.

Southwesterly shear definitely starting to make its presence felt. If the storms entrains any of that dry air it might have significant effects. The mid and low levels show some erosion of the CDO.

There's been some substantial mid-level dry air on the western periphery of the storm, and talk of shear from the NHC, but Florence evidently doesn't concern herself with stuff like physics.

I don't know if mods want us to use a dedicated thread for Florence but I figured the weather is currently boring enough that I'll just post here. Was surprised no one commented on its unexpected intensification.

GFS is complete garbage for tropical cyclone intensities. Modelled sub-900 storms regularly last year.

I'll take your position. All due respect to Mount Holly but it wouldn't be out-of-character for them to bust low over the next few days. Really nice weather today honestly. I'm looking forward to fall but it was nice and sunny and hot. In the winter it can get too cold to breathe. I'll take the over.

man this weather is boring gimme some snow or lightning

I guess this is a banter post, whatever. I think we are screwed. Really profoundly screwed. I won't hazard a guess at the long term implications of major AGW (perhaps there might even be benefits somehow realized from it), but there's major basic logistical issues from coastal areas being drowned. And it's hard to see how that's not going to be a central issue of climate change. And that's not even bringing in ecological disruption. Migration pattern disruption, proliferation of certain diseases, etc. Even before we ever get into the finer details of what will happen we have to get over displacing hundreds of millions, billions of people. That freaks me out.