This is a beauty. It's more amped and more neg tilted. That enhancement as this passes is where we can really stack fluff with good growth in the DGZ and 15-20:1 type ratios. As some have said, let's get 5-6" OTG before that part and then play with house money.
It's not a bad run, no one panic. It's a little more amped at h5 and low is a hair stronger, which draws in a bit more ML warmth with that angle of approach. Reality is, the 2m temp 32 line is actually a bit more S.
Aren’t you like barely out of college? Maybe I was wrong but I remember a conservation before when you were just getting started. Might have you confused with someone else.
Love the solutions at 12z showing .75-1" QPF in the sweetspot zones. Certainly believe it with a stronger, well oriented vort tapping GoM feeds and solid forcing. Not to mention a great pass that keeps the enhancement going a bit longer on GFS & GGEM.
Just about all of us would lock and load that GFS run and sleep until Sunday morning when the obs thread opens up. Nice run there, good column, heavy QPF with great moisture advection and forcing overhead.
I like the sharp h5 look and that energy passage as well transfer. Places that would avoid a dry slot would see some good enhancement as that pulls through. Probably some high ratio fluff.
It should be a nice squally patch with decent rates where it falls. Favored zone about our BY and ESE. I don’t mind getting a little south mountain enhancement?
The thread after the thread rule proved successful last year on at least 2 occasions. Happy to report I was one of the savior thread starters on one of those.
The 70 & n to M/D corridor is a good place to be right now. PSU probably jackpots if you didn't move to Hanover, but given your snow curse, we'll have to look for a new jackpot zone.
Also, I definitely see the chance of CVA getting something in the next storm window regardless of what happens with this one. Favors spots further south until we see runs pull energy up the coast.
Would be pretty surprised, mid to upper 20’s surface temps even in the mixing sections as per the euro depiction. It’s more a warm air push aloft with the primary track that 18z euro run had. let’s see what its ensembles have to say here shortly.
2nd ex wife post of the day, I’m all for it. I have a wife, might make her my ex soon.
gfs is rolling out ready to crash the servers and weenie dreams.