DDweatherman
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Everything posted by DDweatherman
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Does anyone have a good final totals map from the 2014 event? From what I remember the N/W crew (which I was not a part of at that time) totaled 20” in spots
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I think what you’re saying for the group is heights are a bit lower in the east
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2014 is exactly what came to mind @WxUSAF when I saw some of the 0z suite. One of the best WAA thumps we’ve had of the last 25 years.
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Will, is the QPF map through the entirety? I’m thinking its hard for places to get 6” of snow off 10:1 ratios with .48 qpf…
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Good thump for most of the sub, 8-12” before the lowlanders SE of 95 would have mixing issues. Transfers to a low off VA near the end of the run, but cuts off for most at hour 120. Not at the computer for nice graphics, trying to log into wxmodels site to paste a total QPF/snow, but hasn’t loaded there yet.
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ICON at 6z joins the more amped camp, out thru 102 with heavies over most of the sub and a low down in the south. It’s going to be a huge hit, but will review uppers. Phase occurring a lot fair west earlier/cleaner than prior runs.
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GEFS is a beaut, love to see the northward creep and bump in QPF.
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In some of the top biguns CHO tends to do really well, I could see them over to to EZF being a jack zone
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A wall of overrunning precip 600-800 miles wide can put down some big numbers.
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I do agree, I feel like it would have to put down those 2’ totals through a prolonged event and backside CCB with high ratios…not as much a low capture or neg tilt that bombs a low off the capes.
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Love seeing the totals there in a correction run. Have to think of more phasing occurs those numbers are between rich and Baltimore areas. Shows what kind of potential this has and that run didn’t even do the full Monty.
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Yes, we’ve seen what the runs that do it look like. Gfs was close.
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Love that the run looks really solid but this looks as a major upside option. The ceiling for this is definitely a HECS level event, even if not likely.
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It’s a really nice course correction from 12z taking the mass fail scenario back to close to off table. Seeing its AI be way better at 18z also helps a whole lot.
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I actually would lean towards reality ending up a pretty clean phase if we can get those pieces where this frame has them. Nice correction back in the right direction for the gfs.
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H120 is going to be key for many…
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I like the sharpness in the n/s feature and the best energy being on the backside to possibly promote downstream phasing.
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That could end up with a G… or an F… downstream if the gfs doesn’t f this up.
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Some of the models have shown the n/s getting a little quick, which wouldn’t kill the storm quite like the Baja s/w getting buried, but it would reduce the probability of long duration precipitation and some Of the high end upside.
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It’s definitely not over 12z, but it’s not a bad look. Probably another 4-6 for the area after 120.
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Time for the real 18z models..and a Prozac. Main focus is efficient release of the Baja s/w and no further slowing of that and timeline on arrival of precip.
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What I really see here is the major divergence more so would come between the 84-108 window of time…none of these are that much different from a NA500 hemispheric perspective.
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Yet zwyts can post here to tell us he can’t post here? It was confusing. i too agree with the EPS trend gif being my favorite part of 12z, maybe minus the UK thrashing us all again
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Hope the big 3 airports are all closed.
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That has already begun trust me.
