DDweatherman

So, what do we look for now for some last minute respite?

Agreed trixie. I think in reality the surface reflection isn't indicative of where the true LP center is. Mesoscale differences aside, a more wound up system that does cause the mid levels to close off/stack for us might also be what is giving the double barrel look where we're seeing a low over the bay instead of over OC/right off the coast.

Although I am definitely rooting for that as part of the outcome, I'd favor a good slug/thump of WAA on the front end to lay a nice base of snow and get some good rates. That could also help keep the column cool if we do get the secondary snow from any wraparound. Keep watching those h7/h85 depictions...those closing off is part of our recipe to do well.

I agree with you on this. It does seem like the meso features help the thermals quite a bit on the GFS wrt evolution, and as I pointed out the ML's closing off. Agreed though that a track up the bay to NAK isn't going to get it done. The double barrel low structure we have seen on a number of models is still a bit puzzling to me, and I've dug into the mid level maps to see if that's warranted. I wonder realistically if that's driven by convection on some models since the UL features don't align with the base of the trough putting a low over the middle of the Chesapeake. I'm still liking a track from VA beach to east of SBY (hopefully on the coast of OC) north to Lewes before going more ENE.

I mean even the ICON improved at 12z which has been one of our worst models to this point on the storm but in reality was more accurate with the low track.

The GEM is the only 12z model that got worse for us so far thankfully. We're gonna need the Euro to hold up.

Agreed, there's not a primary present but if you see what I just said to Joe and he confirmed is we want to see this thing close off in the ML's and have the winds not vector out of the SE pumping in the WAA for the entirely of the low's track to our latitude.

I saw yesterday you are off Lucabaugh right? Good to see we have another member of the Westminster/Carroll crew here in the forum. Looking for my first good snow since moving up here 2 years ago.

Joe, need your thoughts on the GFS. Do you think h7 & h85 closing off has anything to do with the better outcomes on 12z. Tracks are right over us so not ideal, but can't hurt to have it stack a bit?

It has a lot to do with the evolution and where the snow comes from. There isn't much dependency on the backend stuff for us either, it's more WAA driven and enhanced by the low being relatively near before we dry-slot.

Nice GFS run, best look on the snow maps for the myself/mappy/PSU crew but also Moco/Howard folks a la WxUSAF/osfan. You want to see the bomb a bit if you're hoping for improvements at this stage.

It is definitely interesting to see even when the low is going as far W as these models have shown, surface temps barely touch freezing or don't go above for a lot of the northern tier folks. The 3k wasn't a "worse" run per say. I'm thinking a lot of these models are showing mesolow features as the true SLP, whereas the h85 and h5 tracks give us a better idea of where it actually would be.

I think somewhere in between. The GFS is quite a bit warmer at the surface pretty much compared to all other models!

Looking at SV maps, which are posted here above it looks like. Surface temps are also chilly. GFS thermals are like 5-7 degrees warmer.

The Canadian is a total beatdown W of 95 for a lot of folks. Track is actually W of GFS (questionable double barrel look), but much better thermal profiles.

With the GFS thermals being what they are, I'll take the GFS and its track about 30-40 miles E/SE of last run. The evolution as a whole is a bit different than the Euro & even NAM.

One positive from the GFS is the SFC low track does look to have moved to the east from 18z a few miles. Nothing crazy but certainly noticeable.

GFS is a degree warmer everywhere through 42-48. EDIT to say it's really hard to buy the GFS. 850's are cold as modeled (colder than some of the other models), but the surface is just a torch for many in the metros. Not really how any other models are showing the evolution. Weaker QPF might be the cause for the warmer scheme overall.

I actually disagree with this, looks about the same or ever so slightly less modeled on 18z.

Same can be said for the RGEM as well @ 0z.

RGEM moved the snow line 40-50 miles SE for everyone on this run. A better 4-6" thump for those around the DC beltway just referencing TTB with better totals to the N/E.

Correct. The 3k isn't a bad thing to see. We just want models in our camp showing decent thermals and good QPF. Let's hope that's the trend of the 0z suite. The NAM has nudged SE if we're being honest.

We do like the 2.5"+ swath across the M/D area and S PA though. Might as well have the NAM unload the best QPF outcomes for us to at least give a chance when the 850's crash back S.

Agreed, that is a sick sounding for rates in the WAA piece.

Haha I know they're way out to lunch. Decent evolution however and a definite improvement up top and with sfc reflection vs the 18z. We also do have to like it continues to juice up more and more each run.