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DDweatherman

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Everything posted by DDweatherman

  1. DDweatherman
    Yep, was waiting for it. Couple things we’re looking for in our neck of the woods.
  2. DDweatherman
    Agreed, but I think I’m looking for is to see where the low starts to slow down and spin around. The models haven’t lost that idea, and seeing the colder air/those pressures entrenched and the upper level meso maps could lead us to a stall or capture even 50 miles further south allowing for the phase to have a bigger play.
  3. DDweatherman
    I wouldn’t say better chance than not. We saw the NAM & ICON have a positive move on the backside at 18z for the northern tier folks. The GFS also brought good Banding to our doorstep and moved big totals much closer.
  4. DDweatherman
    Definitely think the colder models nailed this part of the storm (RGEM, NAM, Euro, CMC). Now to see where we diverge from here. also the deeper CAD wedge could lead me to believe in more digging/amplification in the trough with our secondary low system. That could of course help bring this tighter into the coast and assist with the capture.
  5. DDweatherman
    Snowing moderate to heavy in a band in Dundalk coming northward to the 695 beltway. 29 degrees and very adverse road conditions for the amount of snow we’ve seen.
  6. DDweatherman
    Pretty heavy SN in Westminster now with a good batch training over us. Could get to 6” tonight if we stay in this for a few hours. Radar to the west looks solid.
  7. DDweatherman
    I’m mobile, about to make the drive back up our way. Pic please? Lol
  8. DDweatherman
    Yeah that was a good shift for us. Mappy close to the big stuff.
  9. DDweatherman
    Just so close, even a 50 mile trend south or verifying that way puts the northern crew into 15” totals.
  10. DDweatherman
    By no means saying it’s over. Would just need such minuscule changes southward with development of the coastal to get into a band that might park over us and deliver serious fluff.
  11. DDweatherman
    That’s called our climo, Miller B Climo.
  12. DDweatherman
    It and the Icon both have solid wraparound/CCB as shown. The northern tier crew north of I-70 and east of FDK see near double digit totals.
  13. DDweatherman
    This one stings, regardless of what climo says for our area. We have spotty, inconsistent precip and 2-3” totals across the area from the WAA. No real snow rates and now of course, the last few sets of model runs have locked in up to 2’ for PHL up to NYC. So many good model runs even giving my yard over by PSU 10-12”+. Still seeing that on some and wondering where this is coming from. A frustrating miss.
  14. DDweatherman
    THIS. A great post with the honest truth around parts of our hobby that as someone not only looking to be knowledgeable but also an enthusiast.
  15. DDweatherman
    Shake my head. 37 here with mostly sunny skies. Feels warmer without the wind.
  16. DDweatherman
    I’m by no means saying it’s right, but one would have to consider if the evolution did occur like the RGEM has it and the UL dynamics it’s showing... are those totals really in left field?
  17. DDweatherman
    Great share. The deform is just a big wildcard overall that we’re going to need to hone in on. But I did like the post someone made related to 2/10/10. Primary coming in south of where that trekked through the OV and transferred. If we see the low sit and spin off the Delmarva like many are showing (euro now included), people are going to put up numbers.
  18. DDweatherman
    Absolutely. Us northern tier folks are setting up for hopefully an easy foot+ if the CCB performs. Let’s keep those trends going. Put a 995 there for 24 hours with a vertically stacked and stalled low and were going to puke it up. You can’t take something like the RGEM verbatim but it’s evolution is similar to other models. The main difference is it maximized dynamics and FGEN our right over the S PA/ CMD.
  19. DDweatherman
    Agreed. I’m really liking the trends for our neck of the woods. We saw what lingering deform could do sitting over us in the 2/10/10 storm. Just dumped high ratio fluff for hours. Not afraid to say I’m thinking 12-18 for us with a chance at more if these trends continue. I mean, that’s still less than half what the RGEM gave us right?
  20. DDweatherman
    You’ve gotta like the trends with the low sitting right off Lewes/OC for 24 hours basically. Based on the UL features today across all the models I’m starting to get pretty optimistic about the CCB portion of the storm. That evolution really starts to bring the huge totals into play and we’ve seen a trend in that direction. Might continue into game time and finally deliver us the jack we’ve been waiting for.
  21. DDweatherman
    It would be hard to argue with 4-8" of cold, high ratio smoke regardless of what happens after and if it the coastal turns this into a MECS.
  22. DDweatherman
    I think up our way the rates might not be quite the same but we'll do okay with snow growth and accumulate pretty much everything that falls.
  23. DDweatherman
    Well @psuhoffmanthe Westminster crew might be getting fringed now according to 18z NAM. Good thing im down in White Marsh for poker night.
  24. DDweatherman
    I'm dead. Tried to sneak that one in there.
  25. DDweatherman
    Well sorry, I agree (it’s not discounting). I should have clarified he’s saying the verbatim output for 10-1 maps and face value is pretty unlikely! Sorry @high risk!
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