DDweatherman

Light snow in Westminster has begun. 28 degrees

I like where the high is located (1038) just N of NY. It’s hanging in there pretty tough and has been running a few mb stronger than progged. You can see with the bending of the isobars it’s still leaking the cold air to our north into the area on some NNE/NE winds at the moment.

Final Forecast for Posterity (Most likely in parentheses) BWI: 2-4” (3”) DC: 2-3” (2”) IAD up to leesburg 4-6” (leaning 4“) FDK: 6-10” (8”) Westminster: 5-8 (6”) HGR as well as OKV (Winchester): 10-15, closer to 10 at HGR, closer to 12 near Winchester Thinking a decent WAA slug and do like the short term trends on early arrivals on mesos. Our dews/obs as well as the current 850 scheme look respectable. Overall, I’m not bullish on backside love, but it’s gotten a lot more respect and the 0z GFS brings it very close to the M/D folk. There could be serious sleet with some actual accums thanks to the warm layer at the 750-800mb level N/W of 695 out on the 70 corridor (namely Hunt Valley to Eldersburg to Westminster to Frederick). These folks are going to stay below 32 (likely sub 30) most of the storm and the warm nose is elevated enough the low level cold will make Sleet much more a threat than any possible ZR. These are also the places most likely to get 1-2” on the backside with the potential for more if the chips fall correctly. Mix lane stops just shy of Winchester and HGR.

24.8/18 out here by McDaniel in Westminster.

HRRR looks solid at 0z for a lot of folks in the CMD/DC metro to get thumped at least with some snow initially. 6-8” across the folks north of 70 East to 83 in the “Hereford zone”.

Well PSU, we're down to the HRRR then huh?

Well from a high level it scoots out east from our latitude. You've seen on some models it crashes the column even for us, along with the mid-levels closing off. If the low trekked up over NYC, you wouldn't see the same results there.

Which is bogus of course. But that also leaves the door open...one of the models has to be wrong with where they are putting the low, and there is signficiant discrepancy amongst Op's at the moment and even their ensembles. If the track of the GFS or even the NAM at 18z are correct but the euro has the thermal scheme correct, a lot of folks would be surprised at the outcome. The airmass is a lot more formidable than some have given it credit to this pt.

To be honest, there has to come a time where you take a look at the consensus track for the LP center and the h5, steering, and the flow in a nowcast. That coupled together still makes it really hard to expect a low to go over Baltimore. Models seem to be struggling with the double barrel look and where the true MSLP is going to end up. As Wwxluvr said, this is a really sensitive set up, and I think that is reflected with regards to low positoning more than anything. The euro is showing some of the biggest "snow maps," but has the low the furthest west. That's after the NAM & GFS moved it SE @ 18z. I'm more focused on some of the short term indicators/mesoanalysis to see where our low pops and how the ML's react in response to that positioning.

It is crappy to see considering the other models did move the SLP S/E. The 18z GEFS (take it with a grain) moved all the lows east of the 12z grouping (all to favorable locations)

I'll throw out my final call @ 1030PM this evening for the area and see how I verify this one on totals.

Is it a nicer experience out there for the snow? I haven’t been up there in years and never experienced a snow there.

Question for you and everyone/anyone else that cares to respond: Do you think I should enjoy this one in Westminster or head out to Deep Creek? We were gonna drive out tonight and check this one out there. There’s this weird thing about tracking the snow for my house and then experiencing the storm elsewhere lol

One thing I do like is h7 and h85 certainly close off nicely and vector those SE winds away from us.

Well that's just per this one sounding, but if we have a nose like that, it's tougher to erode than something in the lower levels. PSU, I wasn't up here yet. Remind me how our area did in 3/2017? I know LWX had Westminster in 12-18 and the storm didn't quite produce haha

You know, I said this to my fiance earlier. If we hadn't just gotten back from Florida and needed to clean up our messy house in Westminster, we'd probably do the same!

This is where you get the sleety frames for a few hours, hr 29 on 3k (750 looks around +2)

For us, 700mb temps never break above 0. There is a slight pocket between 750-800 that could present issues, but that was more prevalent in soundings around DC than our neck.

Agreed. ~1.3" QPF to be exact on the 12k for you if you we're wondering. Around 1.5" on the 3k. It would be nice to see the 18z GFS continue what the 12z did but not bring the low over Baltimore.

I think most importantly it was an improvement from both 12k/3k at 12z. Can it muster up further support is the question. We want to see h7/h85 closing off and tightening the thermal gradient. Then if the low was to go a bit east on these gametime runs, we'd be in a pretty good spot.

Yeah I was doing the point and click soundings near us, we'd probably be snowing assuming good precip rates.

The hr 29 map for the northern tier on the 12k is a solid frame with ridiculous theta-e/fronto in the area while good precip is overhead and we're back to snow.

The 3k definitely took on a double barreled look. Took a 997 due east off OCMD then repopped out of what looked to be a mesolow down to 991 in the DE Bay. Not too sure that would verify as shown, but does certainly help get backside love into CMD and even the metro area this run.

Here shows quite well the move the 12k NAM makes wrt to thermal gradient & the snow/sleet line. Pretty sizeable jump SE. 18z top 12z bottom

Yes the 3k is not as good as the 12k depiction. However, take a look at the sounding here in DC which is well into the rain depiction on the frame shown. Column is not far off from being isothermal. Additionally, the low is I'd estimate 50-75 miles east of last run. PSU, keep me honest on that (I'm using TTB)