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DDweatherman

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Everything posted by DDweatherman

  1. I’m thinking 2-3” on a corridor from MRB to FDK across up to about my yard in Westminster over to Bel Air. Localized jack somewhere right along 70 from a FDK to Mt. Airy to Mariottsville/Ellicott City Line.
  2. Well I mean @high risk works in NWP is sorta saying to discount it, so hard to give it weight.
  3. Radar ob, looking pretty good over SWVA/the OV.
  4. I didn’t want to log in just to say but yes it’s the NAVGEM formerly NOGAPS.
  5. Bring that over here! We’re snowing pretty good with the wind, but give me those dendrites and good snow growth!
  6. Radar has filled overhead in Carroll county, and the goods have commenced yet again...
  7. Starting to see what you’ve mentioned take shape on the ML maps. We’re still a few hours away on the surface reflection, but the radar has taken a more N/S orientation already.
  8. Yep starting to pick up and changeover to a majority snow here. The back edge has slowed w of HGR, but it’s still moving NE a bit. Cue @psuhoffmanto tell us where the lagging ULL energy is to spark off some good banding if it shall come.
  9. Don’t look now but there is a slight pivot to a more N/S Orientation on our radar, and snow is picking up here with occasional pingers mixed in.
  10. Check that, now back to snow mixed in down in Westminster even before the good returns move back in.
  11. With the changeover coming W to E just west of us now, I’d favor better thermals occurring. Does the current swath now basically pivot to the NW/SE orientation? Or are we refiring more Precip again.
  12. You’d think with almost all models hitting on that now at <6 hrs lead time, we should get a couple inches... and it would dump pretty good with the ULL.
  13. And as @psuhoffman said the NAM was out, it throws us some snow tonight on the 0z.
  14. 50/50 snow & sleet? You’re at the leading edge of that precip shield too if so.
  15. More and more optimistic about the euro being onto something for tonight seeing our winds veer to the north and the Radar blossoming to the south. That warm nose should be gone in the next hour or two for the favored spots as the low gets up to our latitude and wraps up as well. Closed h85 low right on top of us to help enhance some Precip returns.
  16. Called 5-8" here in our neck of the woods in northern Carroll. If the backend does anything like the Euro said, I'll barely bust low, otherwise its a pretty spot on forecast. Sitting at 7" after part 1.
  17. Changeover line on CC radar is heading east/NE through Luray at the moment. Behind it explains why we have snow reports on the 81 corridor. If that's the case, the column should support snow again before that slug moves in. @WxUSAFthoughts?
  18. Yeah, if I get another 5” here overnight consider this an awesome event. And that would put me at 12” total!
  19. That's good to hear. IF that stuff in SWVA makes it hear, makes me optimistic we can snow more without having to relay on vort snows swinging in overnight.
  20. Its a single stream shortwave which is a lot easier to flatten than someone that phases of course.
  21. Until now, which of course is too late. But you'll see the 850 line push east again in the next 2-3 hours.
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