DDweatherman

3k snow maps are pretty Euro esque with huge totals in the favored zones. 15+ 795 in Baltimore W to US 15. There is actually a 50" lolli over Camp David lolol.

Thoughts on the NAM? Truthfully, as NA mentioned, the track has improved. It does show a huge CCB like the Euro has had, just northward into C PA. There are some decent takeaways if we're going to dissect it.

Snow maps on IWM are a decent improvement at the fall line and slightly SE from 18z. 3" line gets down closer to DC on this run.

This is more in line with what you'd expect. With any sort of CCB over the area (which the NAM just trended too this run - huge CCB over the M/D and S PA), these temps crash as shown with a 998 E of OC/Lewes.

Truth be told, the SLP track on the NAM has improved the last 3 runs and is in one of the better places of what we've seen this afternoon. One more nudge in the same direction and its a pretty solid hit. The 850 temps on the NAM are just a total torch. with the low E of VA Beach where the NAM has it with any other models thermals and we are all in the game.

It really is a weird evolution that causes the low to go so far west. Even when you look at the upper level maps and the direction of where the shortwave is moving, it’s still not 100% why the low turns doing north into the bay area. It’s certainly not a run-of-the-mill track for this neck of the woods. Something to keep an eye on for tonight‘s runs. Especially with a pretty robust HP in a generally favorable location.

This is really cause for pause. If those solutions verify, even our Carroll county crew and PSU are raining and seeing 25% of our forecasted totals. Gfs is OTOH clustered off the eastern shore IIRC.

Lol to that comment re: Marty Bass. Also maybe the worst model map I’ve ever seen from a TV outlet. Of course in years past I did make some sick maps with PS.

It’s one of those things being from the west coast of the bay that we had to hope for. Either it had to go SE or the screw job commenced. Even being out near McDaniel on the W side of Westminster now, I wouldn’t mind a little nudge SE. if the euro did that, we’d be under 2’ totals.

Love how if this were true we’d constitute it as a “slight step back” lol

Pretty sure you’re spot on. I believe Dulles began in the 60’s? Someone confirm.

These #’s are plausible for FDK, HGR, and Westminster. But not as much S & E.

Maybe he means top 5 December? Still not catching the top 5 though.

Euro showed 22” here in Westminster for the Parr’s crew.. that’s likely overdone but I guess would be borderline HECS. There have been a lot more 20” events up this way than at the airports.

And GFS bias is dry QPF/warm low levels isn’t it?

I think one of the reasons the GFS has such warm 2m temps are the rates/precip? Yes the WAA is good on the front (which is certainly what we want vs relying on the backside to score good totals). Low QPF is equating to warmer SFC temps possibly?

With the evolution we see on the GFS, the 850's are actually somewhat cooler than 12z in spots. The 2m temps are just what is modeled so warm. That being said, the Euro and EPS are about 3-4 degrees colder for a couple of the time periods. Could the GFS be running a bit warm at the surface? Weird to see it having colder 850's than some models but torching the surface.

Interesting hr 53 & 54 sounding where the mix line runs right along 95. Attached is the sounding for Baltimore. Small warm nose at the 850/900 level, not terribly difficult to overcome. By 54, Baltimore folks could likely be isothermal with good rates and stack up a few inches in the ensuing frames. PS This is if we want to analyze the 3k at face value.

What is the debate at hand? You're making statements about the 18z NAM in specific. Yes you received a snarky response, but you and I both know its on the edges of the model envelope and we're not going to take it verbatim. If it verifies it would be a big score relative to where the other Op's have things at the moment.

To further show the hefty dynamics at play, check out the h7 frontogen here @ 54 hrs.

It's evolution isn't bad, it just decides to take the LPC of course too far N/W. The 12k did shift it about 50 or so miles SE from the 12z run which was a few SE of the 6z so there is progress there. The best takeaway is the dynamics/rates that it shows if we do get in good bands. This would be money for our neck.

Absolutely agree. The TT maps have 12-18 from 795 in Baltimore N & W out to the mtns.

I know a good bit about the area. Let me know if you have any questions. It’s a great spot for this one. Couple of good places to grab a bite nearby as well.

I see it, and if anything, this is the depiction you’d want to score in. The WAA is there for a thump like that coupled with some decent LL dynamics. It’s achievable, but we’ll see if these numbers are to believed.

The euro really is a solid outcome for many folks N/W of 95 and even in closer to Baltimore to the 495 beltway it’s a solid run. Up in my neck of the woods near Westminster/just west, we’re looking solid for a 10-15” snowfall for the Parr’s ridge crew including Loseto and PSU over to mappy. Obviously some of the clown maps are a bit overdone, but even reducing 25% gets us a foot on Euro/GFS/CMC even. The good part about this run of the Euro is we’re not depending on a CCB/deform as much to hit good totals. It’s colder early on and everyone puts down a few inches initially. It comes in relatively hot and heavy as depicted this run.