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DDweatherman

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Everything posted by DDweatherman

  1. DDweatherman
    It is crappy to see considering the other models did move the SLP S/E. The 18z GEFS (take it with a grain) moved all the lows east of the 12z grouping (all to favorable locations)
  2. DDweatherman
    I'll throw out my final call @ 1030PM this evening for the area and see how I verify this one on totals.
  3. DDweatherman
    Is it a nicer experience out there for the snow? I haven’t been up there in years and never experienced a snow there.
  4. DDweatherman
    Question for you and everyone/anyone else that cares to respond: Do you think I should enjoy this one in Westminster or head out to Deep Creek? We were gonna drive out tonight and check this one out there. There’s this weird thing about tracking the snow for my house and then experiencing the storm elsewhere lol
  5. DDweatherman
    One thing I do like is h7 and h85 certainly close off nicely and vector those SE winds away from us.
  6. DDweatherman
    Well that's just per this one sounding, but if we have a nose like that, it's tougher to erode than something in the lower levels. PSU, I wasn't up here yet. Remind me how our area did in 3/2017? I know LWX had Westminster in 12-18 and the storm didn't quite produce haha
  7. DDweatherman
    You know, I said this to my fiance earlier. If we hadn't just gotten back from Florida and needed to clean up our messy house in Westminster, we'd probably do the same!
  8. DDweatherman
    This is where you get the sleety frames for a few hours, hr 29 on 3k (750 looks around +2)
  9. DDweatherman
    For us, 700mb temps never break above 0. There is a slight pocket between 750-800 that could present issues, but that was more prevalent in soundings around DC than our neck.
  10. DDweatherman
    Agreed. ~1.3" QPF to be exact on the 12k for you if you we're wondering. Around 1.5" on the 3k. It would be nice to see the 18z GFS continue what the 12z did but not bring the low over Baltimore.
  11. DDweatherman
    I think most importantly it was an improvement from both 12k/3k at 12z. Can it muster up further support is the question. We want to see h7/h85 closing off and tightening the thermal gradient. Then if the low was to go a bit east on these gametime runs, we'd be in a pretty good spot.
  12. DDweatherman
    Yeah I was doing the point and click soundings near us, we'd probably be snowing assuming good precip rates.
  13. DDweatherman
    The hr 29 map for the northern tier on the 12k is a solid frame with ridiculous theta-e/fronto in the area while good precip is overhead and we're back to snow.
  14. DDweatherman
    The 3k definitely took on a double barreled look. Took a 997 due east off OCMD then repopped out of what looked to be a mesolow down to 991 in the DE Bay. Not too sure that would verify as shown, but does certainly help get backside love into CMD and even the metro area this run.
  15. DDweatherman
    Here shows quite well the move the 12k NAM makes wrt to thermal gradient & the snow/sleet line. Pretty sizeable jump SE. 18z top 12z bottom
  16. DDweatherman
    Yes the 3k is not as good as the 12k depiction. However, take a look at the sounding here in DC which is well into the rain depiction on the frame shown. Column is not far off from being isothermal. Additionally, the low is I'd estimate 50-75 miles east of last run. PSU, keep me honest on that (I'm using TTB)
  17. DDweatherman
    NAM definitely stopped the bleeding wrt to the west shift in track and thermals closer in even near the fall line. Gets borderline warning criteria to a lot of folks in CMD west of 95. The WAA thump is solid on this run.
  18. DDweatherman
    Dews look pretty commensurate at this stage. We'll see how the high percolates cold air down through our area overnight.
  19. DDweatherman
    Well, the only bright side to this is that the WAA slug has looked better today for a thump for a lot of folks in the sub, and the western crew/northern tier can probably get to warning criteria if it performs well.
  20. DDweatherman
    I am still thinking the true LP positioning is going to end up over the DE bay where the other closed isobar is. Euro does do what the GFS looked to do and wrap the cold air in with a quicker change in wind direction to get rid of the SE winds. Provided we had a decent track, this would be a good run, but re PSU's thoughts earlier, further west is never what we want to see.
  21. DDweatherman
    I'm mobile, do you have access to the ML depictions on the Euro to see if it has the ML/UL circulations closed off and thats part of its reason on better thermals?
  22. DDweatherman
    Literally posted at the exact same time on this. That can't hurt us to see regardless of range/res.
  23. DDweatherman
    On mobile, but about half the GEFS members take the low SE of the opp, less than a handful west. Too close in to take ground truth verbatim, but hopefully the east side of that envelope prevails.
  24. DDweatherman
    Because it heads due east from Philly, the mid levels would crash and cause us to go back to snow if it happened exactly as depicted on the UK.
  25. DDweatherman
    Can we see a 0z for comparison? Almost time for the Euro to pull the ole Lucy.
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