DDweatherman
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Everything posted by DDweatherman
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One positive from the GFS is the SFC low track does look to have moved to the east from 18z a few miles. Nothing crazy but certainly noticeable.
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GFS is a degree warmer everywhere through 42-48. EDIT to say it's really hard to buy the GFS. 850's are cold as modeled (colder than some of the other models), but the surface is just a torch for many in the metros. Not really how any other models are showing the evolution. Weaker QPF might be the cause for the warmer scheme overall.
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I actually disagree with this, looks about the same or ever so slightly less modeled on 18z.
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Same can be said for the RGEM as well @ 0z.
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RGEM moved the snow line 40-50 miles SE for everyone on this run. A better 4-6" thump for those around the DC beltway just referencing TTB with better totals to the N/E.
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Correct. The 3k isn't a bad thing to see. We just want models in our camp showing decent thermals and good QPF. Let's hope that's the trend of the 0z suite. The NAM has nudged SE if we're being honest.
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We do like the 2.5"+ swath across the M/D area and S PA though. Might as well have the NAM unload the best QPF outcomes for us to at least give a chance when the 850's crash back S.
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Agreed, that is a sick sounding for rates in the WAA piece.
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Haha I know they're way out to lunch. Decent evolution however and a definite improvement up top and with sfc reflection vs the 18z. We also do have to like it continues to juice up more and more each run.
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3k snow maps are pretty Euro esque with huge totals in the favored zones. 15+ 795 in Baltimore W to US 15. There is actually a 50" lolli over Camp David lolol.
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Thoughts on the NAM? Truthfully, as NA mentioned, the track has improved. It does show a huge CCB like the Euro has had, just northward into C PA. There are some decent takeaways if we're going to dissect it.
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Snow maps on IWM are a decent improvement at the fall line and slightly SE from 18z. 3" line gets down closer to DC on this run.
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This is more in line with what you'd expect. With any sort of CCB over the area (which the NAM just trended too this run - huge CCB over the M/D and S PA), these temps crash as shown with a 998 E of OC/Lewes.
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Truth be told, the SLP track on the NAM has improved the last 3 runs and is in one of the better places of what we've seen this afternoon. One more nudge in the same direction and its a pretty solid hit. The 850 temps on the NAM are just a total torch. with the low E of VA Beach where the NAM has it with any other models thermals and we are all in the game.
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It really is a weird evolution that causes the low to go so far west. Even when you look at the upper level maps and the direction of where the shortwave is moving, it’s still not 100% why the low turns doing north into the bay area. It’s certainly not a run-of-the-mill track for this neck of the woods. Something to keep an eye on for tonight‘s runs. Especially with a pretty robust HP in a generally favorable location.
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This is really cause for pause. If those solutions verify, even our Carroll county crew and PSU are raining and seeing 25% of our forecasted totals. Gfs is OTOH clustered off the eastern shore IIRC.
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Lol to that comment re: Marty Bass. Also maybe the worst model map I’ve ever seen from a TV outlet. Of course in years past I did make some sick maps with PS.
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It’s one of those things being from the west coast of the bay that we had to hope for. Either it had to go SE or the screw job commenced. Even being out near McDaniel on the W side of Westminster now, I wouldn’t mind a little nudge SE. if the euro did that, we’d be under 2’ totals.
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Love how if this were true we’d constitute it as a “slight step back” lol
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Pretty sure you’re spot on. I believe Dulles began in the 60’s? Someone confirm.
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These #’s are plausible for FDK, HGR, and Westminster. But not as much S & E.
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Maybe he means top 5 December? Still not catching the top 5 though.
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Euro showed 22” here in Westminster for the Parr’s crew.. that’s likely overdone but I guess would be borderline HECS. There have been a lot more 20” events up this way than at the airports.
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And GFS bias is dry QPF/warm low levels isn’t it?
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I think one of the reasons the GFS has such warm 2m temps are the rates/precip? Yes the WAA is good on the front (which is certainly what we want vs relying on the backside to score good totals). Low QPF is equating to warmer SFC temps possibly?
