DDweatherman

With the evolution we see on the GFS, the 850's are actually somewhat cooler than 12z in spots. The 2m temps are just what is modeled so warm. That being said, the Euro and EPS are about 3-4 degrees colder for a couple of the time periods. Could the GFS be running a bit warm at the surface? Weird to see it having colder 850's than some models but torching the surface.

Interesting hr 53 & 54 sounding where the mix line runs right along 95. Attached is the sounding for Baltimore. Small warm nose at the 850/900 level, not terribly difficult to overcome. By 54, Baltimore folks could likely be isothermal with good rates and stack up a few inches in the ensuing frames. PS This is if we want to analyze the 3k at face value.

What is the debate at hand? You're making statements about the 18z NAM in specific. Yes you received a snarky response, but you and I both know its on the edges of the model envelope and we're not going to take it verbatim. If it verifies it would be a big score relative to where the other Op's have things at the moment.

To further show the hefty dynamics at play, check out the h7 frontogen here @ 54 hrs.

It's evolution isn't bad, it just decides to take the LPC of course too far N/W. The 12k did shift it about 50 or so miles SE from the 12z run which was a few SE of the 6z so there is progress there. The best takeaway is the dynamics/rates that it shows if we do get in good bands. This would be money for our neck.

Absolutely agree. The TT maps have 12-18 from 795 in Baltimore N & W out to the mtns.

I know a good bit about the area. Let me know if you have any questions. It’s a great spot for this one. Couple of good places to grab a bite nearby as well.

I see it, and if anything, this is the depiction you’d want to score in. The WAA is there for a thump like that coupled with some decent LL dynamics. It’s achievable, but we’ll see if these numbers are to believed.

The euro really is a solid outcome for many folks N/W of 95 and even in closer to Baltimore to the 495 beltway it’s a solid run. Up in my neck of the woods near Westminster/just west, we’re looking solid for a 10-15” snowfall for the Parr’s ridge crew including Loseto and PSU over to mappy. Obviously some of the clown maps are a bit overdone, but even reducing 25% gets us a foot on Euro/GFS/CMC even. The good part about this run of the Euro is we’re not depending on a CCB/deform as much to hit good totals. It’s colder early on and everyone puts down a few inches initially. It comes in relatively hot and heavy as depicted this run.

I don’t know if anyone noticed but the low is also 8mb stronger, so that wouldn’t hurt us here at that latitude.

I’m gonna bet NHC goes 155 or maybe 160 anyway this advisory. She’s gonna go a little lower and respond wind wise in the next few hrs I’d expect.

Just edited my post to add Gilbert right before you posted.

Rita and Dorian probably my favorite’s. edit to add Gilbert as well.

Was my train of thought as well. If current presentation holds for 3-6 more hours at a 2-5mb rate of drop, it very well could translate to a sub 910 level storm.

I think regardless of strength, probably will be remembered as one of the most impressive storms ever on sat.

Arguably one of the best looking storms on record in the Satellite era with some of the most robust estimates... and that happens. Well I’ll be dammed.

That’s the thrill, almost makes not having recon all day worth the suspense since we’re not quite sure what to expect

My 917/165 is gonna have to be 902/175 final

Forrealz? Just need to cite that would be the strongest ATL cane by wind speed on record...

Also, can we all agree this is the most highly anticipated November recon mission ever? We have a monster that we haven’t sampled since it was a 90mph cane! What suspense!

The main reason I think it’s not going to have pressure THAT low is about overall time/size at this intensity to deepen that low. More likely to have winds in the 175-180 range than pressure 885-905.

I’m thinking 145 kts (165) and 917mb. Around or under 2 hours until recon makes it in.

That cell over Frederick may be our first to go today. Little rotation in it as well.

That’s definitely 3”/hr stuff. I had to pull into someone’s drive off Bachman’s mill when I journeyed to the squall. Was driving down as the visibility began to drop, then snow from a tree came and must have covered the entire car. Car went sliding and luckily 10 seconds later when I could see again I found myself on the opposite side of 97. Let’s be thankful no one was coming.

Well this puts a couple of you guys near 7” for this event as a whole. Models have squalls through the afternoon, and I’m watching that batch in PA. A respectable 5.25” west of Minster with a fresh half inch from the squall that just moved through. Interested to see how much more a few of us could tack on.