DDweatherman

Trust me, I want this one to happen for us, so let the beer commence. I get it though, these models can throw us all for a loop. 18z GFS is a prime example. If you read a lot of the folks posts coming up to the prime frames, you'd think jaws was coming. Surface didn't turn out and by hr 84 the trough was a bit broad, even though it was night and day from the past few. You're right in that being the main reason to just hang tight. Now, if it looks like the 18z NAM was looking from real early on, we can play the jaws music.

You got it. I'm liking that the most and its not a tangible thing, just a vibe thing. Arguably the most important 18z euro run in its history (don't think it was running yet in 2016).

Shew, thats a lot of work...

Agreed. One thing I'd really like to see is some higher heights out in front NE of us. That can help once our low develops & if we do get a clean phase. We want our low to have as much of a due N component as possible. Backside energy dropping in can help with those heights.

december 2009 lol

Some means early on 12/09 looked like that

It does not look good NE of us, the trough is pretty broad, but the members are actually a bit west of their 12z location again.. GEFS hasn't done well of late but its interesting

He is, and that piece is one of the keys thats been improving each run...

@Jipossibly? But we let him experience the storm first? Trough is just kinda broad later in the GFS run, 12z was more v shaped...

I agree, the h5 is a good bit better than some of the runs we've seen in the last 24 hours.. if that look continues and improves, the surface will show a lot better results. We're still at the range where surface panels/results are the least accurate prediction of a model.

It is what it is, the predictive nature of certain things we could probably do without. I'd rather give better analysis about the features and results of the run after it comes out but sometimes its easy to predict. Runs like the NAM just look too good early to not say where they're headed.

I'm listening to the jaws music in the background

Lotta respect for that. I'll let ya finish this one up for us.

Looks not too far off from the euro really...

What I will say is the alignment (per earlier post by @WinterWxLuvr which were looking for looks improved)

We been on these threads back to Eastern about 12 years ago, at least get my name right Randy

Haha I won't Randy, I didn't save any of my DVD's.

May the farce be with ya Andrew Jackson (said that before the euro and it was good so just sticking with it)

Biggest GFS run of the season thus far beginning (if its decent, 0z will be tho

Now we just need the ICON to not be even close to the outcome for this to happen haha

I'm actually coming down that way towards Hanover this week to meet a partner for work...

I like it, beer came into the discussion and you were immediately at our beck and call.

Absolutely what made the euro turn around and be a pretty decent run in the later frames of 12z. Couldn't agree more.

Agreed, I'm looking for the SLP to develop early and SW, to get it to a more mature state by our lat. Based on what we've seen, if that kind of thing happens, the trough is probably sharp and it will take a more favorable track for us.

I'll cover the tab for you me and Bressi if this one hits us at the location of your choice as a token of my apology.