DDweatherman
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Everything posted by DDweatherman
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Saw that post you just deleted Randy... haha
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48 was pretty bad, but the northern dig helps make up some of our ground. We're trending positive that way and negative with the southern energy. Sadly, the overall outcome because of that trade off will go more in the way of the GFS.
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At least it will be a low suspense ending for the brief hope we had. Still was fun doing the PBP of those runs with monster hits.
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Through 48, I think it's already early enough to say next based on h5. Energy held back more to the sw and northern stream not as far S. And I don't have a reason to poo poo the threat, I want snow just as much as Randy does.
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Keep us posted as the run comes out.
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We've seen that one before... so don't rule it out.
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Funny wouldn't be the word. I'd probably jump off the balcony into a snow drift here at Deep Creek if the Euro holds.
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You all can crucify me later for waving the white flag. Weather isn’t just models and you know that as well. Our base state and the speed of the flow argues against a Euro like solution and phase. 18z last night was it’s peak there with amping our wave. Happy to eat my words if needed but under normal circumstances we’d be ready to call this one.
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12z GEFS supports the op from a mean perspective. More strung out trough which would indicate energy being held to the SW.
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It's believable the GFS could be mishandling S/S energy and its release, but the release of that energy to phase w/our system is like 48-54 hour lead, pretty short. Then again, we ask ourselves...can the Euro and its EPS be that off as well with it?
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The GFS really has improved drastically this year. Sadly, we'll like what we see on the GEFS most likely re: what @MillvilleWxjust said about them not being upgraded. May explain why 6z GEFS had some good hits.
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The NAM at 12z really improved the N/S as well and did release the S/S energy vs 6z.
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What's weird is the 6z euro even outpaced the N/S a bit with that southern energy. it was going to phase later but pull the storm even more north. The GFS and CMC have the S/S obviously trailing.
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Somehow not overall a worse outcome vs 6z. If the GFS is just a little wrong with the S/S energy, we'd be in business. However, the latest RGEM did the same overall evolution. Even the ICON I'd say was good with the N/S, but that energy needs to release.
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If we could have seen any sort of progress in releasing the SS energy, we'd probably have a hit this run. Other models have released it quicker but the GFS looks like the RGEM which was a big step back at 12z IMO. It's about curtains for this one in my opinion.
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Even if the N/S is an improvement, which it is a bit more S by 66, the phasing we'd need to match the Euro evolution would be really difficult progressing from there.
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S/S energy is more the S/W and even when the N/S releases, it's tilted very positively. Hard to get anything to amplify in that scenario.
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Too bad the GFS is unfortunately heading in the opposite direction to these weenie eyes.
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Let me save you guys the time this run, the GFS won't look like the Euro this run. S/S energy held back more at 54 and N/S digging less.
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There might not even be a storm to discuss after the Euro runs (Ji hacked my keyboard)
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RGEM certainly isn't going to get it done this run. Much more positive tilt and less digging from the N/S piece of things.
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model*, at least of late haha. I'm still enjoying deep winter in Garret Co where it has been snowing more or less for 2 days. Seeing the GFS cave to the Euro while snow falls outside would be great.
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Yeah, I don't love the look of the ICON personally. More digging, but it would appear too late and too much pos tilt.
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I see what you did there.
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The euro historically has done very well vs the GFS modeling SS s/w's. That is one of the reasons I think it has a potential to at least be partially correct. However, as many have mentioned, lead times are getting pretty short.
