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TugHillMatt

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Everything posted by TugHillMatt

  1. TugHillMatt
    Based on the most recent BGM map, they definitely haven't updated that yet.
  2. TugHillMatt
    I seriously think you race everyone....
  3. TugHillMatt
    I was just going to post the BGM map, which clearly follows that one. Very smart, as it takes all the runs going with the secondary and also includes the mesos having the primary lasting longer.
  4. TugHillMatt
    How awful. Lol. They used to ride along the Apps...or the coast. But the with the Northern Jet involved, it's Jamestown.
  5. TugHillMatt
    What is up with the magnet effect of Low Pressures to Western NY? It's not like Lake Erie is some warm source to draw the low nearby. The last 3 Winters where does a Low go? WNY.
  6. TugHillMatt
    There's always something: mixing, suppression, downsloping, dryslot, transferral, elevation, surface temperature... My call from Sunday continues to look good: 6 inches if primary is in charge... 3 to 6 if transferral occurs faster. Advisory event.
  7. TugHillMatt
    It's not like the latest one doesn't mesh with some of the other recent runs though. I am thinking the Nams come back a bit on the 18Z runs Rap is horrific too, but I hope its recent run comes close.
  8. TugHillMatt
    Wrong map. The 12Z has it waaaaaaaaaaaaaay north. We are now on the southern edge here. LOL
  9. TugHillMatt
    Yeah, I realize Syracuse seems to be on the edge with everything. However, even getting whiffed with those would bring a better chance for lake enhanced snows to CNY. With coastals absent, we haven't had much moisture going over the lakes to provide.
  10. TugHillMatt
    Because we are. They're freaking annoying. That's why I said I am ready for some coastal storms...like the ones that used to exist in the 90s.
  11. TugHillMatt
    LOL. I call it as I see it. Undoubtedly, I look at the world more pessimistically, but I am constantly battling my idealist, dreamer mentality...which I would gladly take those Kuchera maps, but I will only get disappointed when my unrealistic expectations aren't met. (Currently working on those expectations in my personal life.) All that to say... If you take a combo of what we are seeing, CNY is well positioned...but I am very cautious and trying to keep expectations in check.
  12. TugHillMatt
    I saw a couple comments on the BGM NWS Facebook page where citizens were ranting that forecasts used to be more accurate. They were saying how 1 to 18 inches (exaggerated, of course) is a ridiculous forecast and how are people supposed to rely on that. I see their point. We just have too many weather models. We want sources to use to help fine-tune things...but at this point, the weather world needs to ask when is it too much? It's just confusing chaos.
  13. TugHillMatt
    It could work out perfectly for CNY, where the Low stalls and keeps us in the main band and then as the secondary takes over, we get additional amounts from that. I am actually a bit optimistic about that as a possibility. It's going to be close.
  14. TugHillMatt
    Rgem looks well south of Nam. Like suppressed. Hahaha
  15. TugHillMatt
    Just wish we could get some coastal storms. So tired of these primary to secondary ordeals where we either mix or we get whiffed.
  16. TugHillMatt
    I think you mean warmest?
  17. TugHillMatt
    Yup, it would be the notorious band sits over Lake Ontario gig. Please no.
  18. TugHillMatt
    Nearly 60 degrees at midnight and now light snow falling. I am shocked that after a day of 60 and sunshine, and then a day with rain, 60 degrees, and a dewpoint in the 50s that I have any snow left...but I do.
  19. TugHillMatt
    Yikes... 12Z Nams are bringing the mix well north. Hate seeing those doing that, as they are often good with those warm layers.
  20. TugHillMatt
    CNY looks ridiculous with the two offices not meshing well at all.
  21. TugHillMatt
    Fwiw
  22. TugHillMatt
    Still so unclear on whether the primary rules the day or the secondary takes over faster.
  23. TugHillMatt
    Bumps? More like leaps.
  24. TugHillMatt
    Lol. I'm so done with this winter. So done.
  25. TugHillMatt
    Ugh. I don't know...Canadian and Ukie both coming in looking like the Euro has for days (of course) and the best snows, of course, missing Syracuse just to the south and east. Just can't win. My call of 3 to 6 inches from the other day continues to look good. Perhaps more on the back if we get some lake involvement.
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