TugHillMatt

Yeah. I don't think we'll get one in the first week of March. Perhaps the 2nd or 3rd weeks as more cold air tries to push in. The GFS seems to like next week for some continues snows off the lakes though.

More realistic GFS run (10:1)

Lol..these model games. Per usual, we have more confusion as we get closer than we did before.

Pretty big south shift on NAM. Looks solid:

Where do you get these awesome maps from? Looks like they're thinking some lake snows with a WNW wind based on those maps.

I think all the New England weenies froze Pivotal. They're in for a shock when lots of that will be sleet/mix. Interesting that COD shows the sleet lowering totals in South Central NY but not so much in Southern New England.

Low going to Jamestown and warm bulge going to the Sizzle. Wouldn't expect it any other way.

Yeah, the higher terrain in Southern Onondaga is actually a bit closer to where my wife works than where we are now. I love the heavy lake effect snow bands, but unlike Buffwx, I am obviously an "All winter, all the time" kind of guy during the winter. I know the higher elevations will warm up during thaws as well, but the more common orographic snowfalls and better snow retention are more ideal to my winter interests.

True. If that high ratio stuff occurs, I can see us hitting double digits. BGM's latest discussion is saying 7 to 12 inches. Their discussions up until now have been they're rather unimpressed with lake potential behind the system, so not sure if they're including that much in the map. I'm going with the lower end for now.

Yup! I can't stand it. lol... If I had known, I wouldn't have picked this place...still kick myself for not choosing Springville. My wife was even ok with it there. But, she seemed more interested in this area. So, here we are.

I saw that, and am quite surprised.

Stop it. Stop with the lies. Your rainbow farts do nothing here.

It's not often Binghamton goes bigger than Buffalo.

The Syracuse microclimate - at the mercy of any change in wind direction. Winds shifted from East and temp dropped 8 degrees. A wind from the south hills and it jumps right back up. 22 15:54 S 14 10.00 Light Rain SCT040 BKN060 OVC080 54 47 77% NA NA 29.83 1010.0 0.02 0.08 22 14:54 E 7 5.00 Light Rain BKN060 OVC080 50 45 83% 47 NA 29.89 1012.1 0.03 22 13:54 NE 7 5.00 Light Rain BKN070 OVC085 50 43 77% 47 NA 29.92 1013.2 0.03 22 12:54 S 10 G 22 10.00 Light Rain BKN075 OVC090 58 43 59 41 58% NA NA 29.96 1014.5

Interesting first call. It's all over the place. Looks like Low-end warning to me.

Yep. This winter has had the forecast flip flop so many times. We went from Cold, snowy March to the SE ridge taking over once again. Well, we had our one below normal month for the year, I suppose.

It all depends on how you define "few." Remember where I'm located.

...to Syracuse. How many times have we seen this play out!?

I've said that with several different systems this winter and the NAM... and it's done well. I thought, "There's no way" and then...it happens. The HP isn't really locked in place.

I don't know which option I'd prefer. Seems the longer the primary holds on, the better the thumping is and we actually get more snow here. Just gotta play with fire.

Haha. It's become so predictable. Finger Lakes Furnace Effect. Has me making it into double digits, but that's with taint kissing the doorstep.

They have been quite inconsistent in these parts this year. Maybe consistent within a long, narrow band...but like I said, they've been accompanied by lots of different layers leading to varying totals within short distances.

Quite the squall line moving through down there.

I see the hell furnace of New York State, Saharasizzlecuse, is 58 DEGREES, 10 to 20 degrees warmer (Watertown to the north is 39 degrees) than most of the rest of the state. Insane.

He is probably just stating his concerns. These systems are not clear cut and dry. Lots of messy dry layers and warm layers. They tend to have very inconsistent snowfall totals spread throughout a region as a result of this.