TugHillMatt

It's ridiculous. We have had so many times recently where our high for the day has been in the middle of the night as well.

Yeah, it's either coolish air or it's rain with warm air surging up through the Ohio Valley into the NE.

Euro looks like a very close repeat of last night's 00Z run.

My location (I've only been here a year and a half) supposedly averages 135ish inches a year. Lots of 3 to 6 inch events are common here. Over recent years, there have been many SW wind lake effect events that have given the goods to the Watertown area and the northern Tug Hill. We need some clippers and synoptic events that give us snowfall from the system and then with the lake influence from behind. This past Thursday was the biggest event so far with 2 inches. (lol) It's been numerous dustings/coatings/and half inchers that have mostly melted by the end of the day they fall on.

5 or 6 inches. Pathetic.

Good point. Odds of that actually happening are very slim. Usually the area between the two lows gets the screw job, not the max amount.

Has there ever been upslope along the Niagara Escarpment from an easterly LES event? I think it might not be angled correctly?

Technically...I beat you by a minute. lol

It looks amazing. By far the best looking run for much of Upstate NY. Wish it would come true.

So just one run of somewhat interest at 18Z and now back to whatever it's doing? 00Z NAM looked like it was trying to come north, but it was also looking faster than its previous run...which probably wouldn't allow for much of a north track with such a progressive nature.

What a surprise...Syracuse skyrockets 7 degrees above what the forecasted high was for today. As soon as the southerly wind kicks in, UP the temp goes... Day in and day out, the temp overachieves here. Must be a combination of old climatology factored into the modeling and that Syracuse is a downsloping mecca plus Urban Heat Island. Yet another day of this place being in the top as the warmest place in New York State. Edit...the temp just went UP another degree at 11 pm...right after I typed that...just to spite me... lol

That says 18Z?

I was just teasing you.

Next run: A cutter? I kid...sort of.

He's got the best of several worlds. 1) He can come here and flaunt the snow he gets from East Coast storms since he's on our east side. 2) He can go to NYC sub and flaunt the snow he gets to their NW when they get rainers. 3) He can go to New England crew and flaunt when he is getting nice backside snows while they're sitting under a Low. 4) He can flaunt his higher elevation for all the elevation-dependent events. I'm on to you, Eric...

I am avoiding every other subforum right now because I know they're all probably rejoicing with the current trends. Maybe I'll be able to go back at the end of the week and experience wailing and gnashing of teeth in between shovels full of snow? Too much to ask?

The thing about these ensemble maps is that it looks like a huge area could get decent amounts, when in reality it's more an average amount from so many different possibilities. Basically, a marked cutoff between snow amounts is hard to depict on these maps.

The GFS ensembles did somewhat as well.

Hey, I still have a little snow pile outside my apartment building from this week's 2 inches. A little bit made it through yesterday's normal 55 degrees. This week had a 2 inch snowfall that mostly melted overnight, we had a thick frost another morning, then black ice another morning..and a tiny snowpile outside. Winter has arrived to Upstate Mid Atlantic!

The agreement between the models is strong. Also, there isn't going to be a huge opening for the system to track as far NW as I think we want. ALSO, the cutoff between no snow and SNOW is very sharp. Plus, winter patterns have sucked lately. Discouraging.

They're pretty much all in agreement.

SQUASHED

12Z runs didn't bring anything more encouraging. If anything, the systems may be showing up farther west, but NOT north. Just getting squashed from moving any more north. We finally get some cold, but...... Seems like past several winters, if we can get any more north, it will do the sharp turn and go waaay north that we need it. aka becomes a cutter.

We had some consistent runs for days with a few "potential" systems earlier in the season...and then they tracked way NW within a few days of the systems. Will that work out for us in this case, or will it be one of those annoying situations where the models sniff it out and stay the course...

It is my white powder addiction. I need more. Give me more. I wouldn't kill anybody for it...but maybe close enough.