TugHillMatt

Nice. Now it will freeze and make for a solid base. Still a few areas here with snowcover but probably 80% bare. Still has a liiiiitle wintry feel with piles along all the roads, driveways, and lots.

Oh, so they do have some wisdom on something... How much of your white fertilizer survived? The 6 inches here was demolished in 12 hours!!!! Dewpoints weren't even high. It must have been the gusty south wind, rain, and warmer ground from the 40s the day before. I thought since it had a higher moisture content, it might last longer.

But...but...but, a nice, thick layer of snow would keep your precious lawn saturated AND insulated!

Maybe the NAMS are doing their usual over-amping and going too far north? The 12Z HRRR looks pretty good for Upstate east of the Finger Lakes. But, it's not exactly the most accurate either.

Well then maybe I should hope this crap pattern holds on so I can at least continue to see 1 to 2 inch glop fall and then go for my nightly Jebwalk in the snow before it melts the next day? lol

And...the 12Z NAMs are coming in much warmer with rains up to the St. Lawrence. lol Whew. I love the weather, but these crap patterns are making it difficult for me to enjoy my hobby...especially as a winter enthusiast. Rain rain rain gets old... Anybody else feel the same?

@BuffaloWeather, I've been reading more chatter about those extended maps you've been talking about. "The talk" is how that pattern in the long range looks great for the Mid-Atlantic and possibly New England coast. I know you mentioned it...and I'm a little concerned we're going to go right from this awful pattern we've been in with rain to an awful pattern of everything being suppressed to the south. It wouldn't seem to allow for many opportunities for LES either. Ugh.

The Ukie looks decent for many except the Lake Plain. You'd think we were Seattle with as much as the water and low elevation are killing us.

I think all snow lover in New York state would like that...other than those in the Lower Hudson valley and Long Island.

Oh, how I wish we could lock the Canadian run in! It would be well over a foot of snow with snow falling Sunday through Thursday. Perhaps that extreme West based -NAO could work in our favor for this one?

I like what the Canadian is showing for the Sunday/Monday system. It has the Low moving NNE along the New England coast. Keeps us in snow for quite awhile, and I could see Lake Ontario enhancing the precip. with North winds. IF anything like this were to come into fruition, it could be a good hit for the Syracuse to Rochester area...BIG IF

Wow...SO close to being a decent event for the Thruway and north!!! They truly are epic!!! I can still vividly remember hearing the sleet POUNDING against the windows and house all night long during the Vday storm. Also, the piles are HUGE when you plow and shovel sleet. The way the sleet packs on top makes it look like you got feet of snow. Loved it!

Hey, I'll take it. Growing up in Lancaster, PA, I have fond memories of sleet storms. It's a PAIN to travel in and shovel..but a sleet-pack, encased in ice, is a glacier that thaws have trouble conquering. Back during the Valentine's Day Storm of 2007, we legit got a couple inches of snow, then SIX inches of a sleet/mix on top, then a period of freezing rain, and THEN a couple more inches of snow...and then froze rock solid the following night. That stuff survived WEEKS of temps in the 40s and 50s. At this point, I don't care if it's sleet or snow...if it's white and has a better chance of surviving these thaws and the Syracuse sauna...I say bring it on! Although, snow is much more pleasant to watch.

Or how about the stupid primary just die a quick death and the secondary takes over faster. Too much to ask?

The heaviest band of RAIN, of course, went RIGHT over Northern Onondaga county (never happens when it's snow). The snow"pack" is getting obliterated.

It's so maddening to see all that warm air just surge up the plain, even when the Low goes south per the Rgem. Just an awful climate element.

@wolfie09, latest meso runs are trying to set the LES snow band up from Fair Haven to Bville to Cazenovia. But...as I am learning from you...trust the Rgem more than the others for LES.

Wow, BUF NWS sure knows how to make the weather seem so un-exciting...I mean, this winter isn't that exciting..but come on BUF...Eeyore much?

Friday night's forecast from BGM for Onondaga: (I think they pretty much have it covered...lol) Rain or snow or sleet or freezing rain. Light snow accumulation. Lows in the lower 30s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

Doubtful we get much here in the furnace lowlands. The Advisory looks more applicable to the higher elevations south of the Cuse. Of course, I hope that the cold air makes it to the surface more and we get a surprise. I have noticed that as soon you take that South wind away from Syracuse, the cold air settles back in quickly and rain can change to snow here very quickly.

lol..I'm sure you would! I was looking at the snow total reports from BGM today and nobody came close to you guys from this last event! 13 inches in your area...and then it seems Baldwinsville, Liverpool, and Clay/Cicero had a general 5 to 7 inches. Syracuse area was 2 to 4 inches.

I noticed that. It looks like it's going to be another "troll me" event...hopefully Syrmax and I can get in on a more consistent band, but it's looking like it might be another S. Oswego county situation. If so, it would be the third band of the year for Freak and CNY.

On the Canadian runs, the Southern Tier and up into the Finger Lakes/Rochester suburbs get quite a bit of ice.

Welcome to Upstate Virginia.

This is going to be a tough call for the Syracuse region. We are going to be right on the line (shocker) between warm air trying to come up through the Finger Lakes and the colder air pushing eastward from the Dacks. Models seem to be trending on the cold"er" air putting in a better fight. I saw this a couple times last winter in this region..especially November. In fact, the pattern is similar to last November, where we had this battle zone (with freezing rain/sleet/snow in this region) before winter settled in for a few weeks. Unfortunately, I think it's going to be a bit tougher for the Rochester/Genesee Valley region, as the cold air won't make it that far west.