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Ja643y

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Everything posted by Ja643y

  1. Ja643y
    Hey all, sorry to ask again, but trying to decide if it is worth making the trip up. You all know the micro climates of the area better than the models. Thoughts on 4-6” for basically Parkway and 226? I’ve only been up there once and that was for Jan 2022. Not expecting that, but want to see your guys thoughts on my location for this one on the escarpment.
  2. Ja643y
    Any thoughts on escarpment for this one? I’m thinking of chasing, but have a long haul. I’d be Right above the parkway near 226. Looks like it starts to drop off pretty quickly around the escarpment… but still has potential for 6 plus?
  3. Ja643y
    Can someone with way more knowledge than me weigh in… the setup on 0z versus 18z looks better, but is it just faster? The neutral tilt at hr 69 looks much better to my untrained eye on the 0z, but maybe just too fast, thus late? Or could this be a surface depiction issue and that shield should be much further NW?
  4. Ja643y
    Cool one from the cam today. Sad I wasn’t able to get there for it.
  5. Ja643y
    Man do I wish I was up there. Looks like I may miss out on 6”+ in the Little Switzerland/Spruce Pine area if the short range models are correct!
  6. Ja643y
    Asked this in the other thread, but probably better suited here. Noticed that a lot of models have a sort of enhanced area of snowfall in Mitchell and McDowell counties, specifically closer to the SW corner of Mitchel near Spruce Pine. Any ideas why?
  7. Ja643y
    Can anyone explain to me the little maximum that’s been showing in a band through Mitchell and McDowell counties?
  8. Ja643y
    Pretty nice rates at App Ski mtn with decent size flakes!
  9. Ja643y
    Just like that back to mostly rain. Looks very rate dependent
  10. Ja643y
    Just checked the camera for our place just above the BlueRidge off 226… snow finally starting come down a bit and stick on elevated parts of the deck.
  11. Ja643y
    We left yesterday, but the outdoor cam I have shows more ice this morning than we had with the Saturday storm. All melted off now, but looked to be every bit of .25” this morning
  12. Ja643y
    Just a very basic temp gauge that has been here for years, not sure how well calibrated… but showed 20 for morning low, 37 for high. Currently 30.
  13. Ja643y
    I’m right up 226 from Marion before you get to Spruce Pine. Thoughts? Hoping to keep power tonight, but wouldn’t mind the kids waking up to an inch or two of snow.
  14. Ja643y
    Yea, I'm just up 226 from Marion... It has not let up for nearly 2 hours. I'm from Florida, so know some good rainfall rates, and although I don't have a gauge here, would be we've picked up 2.5 to 3 inches just since 8a.
  15. Ja643y
    0z GFS with maybe the best output all season. Long ways off, but last 8 or so runs have held serve for some type of event.
  16. Ja643y
    Don’t look now, but there’s a storm 8 days out on the GFS. I’m headed up with the kids next week. It looks like it may be colder than when I was there in early January!
  17. Ja643y
    I’ve got a place I can go to right on the McDowell/Mitchell line just under 3,300 feet. The maps show a pretty steep drop off with almost nothing. Is there shadowing that happens or does all the moisture get rung out pretty quick NE to SW as it crosses the boarder. I’ve only been there for one storm (last year - 10”+) but never for a Flow event. Any thoughts?
  18. Ja643y
    Wondering if anyone has looked at Next Friday and think there’s a chance for that to trend better for the region. GFS had an interesting solution at 6z that I imagine wouldn’t be too far fetched to trend for some snow for the Mountains - but then again, I know very little and only spend a month or two a year up here, so don’t know all the nuances.
  19. Ja643y
    Hurricane Hunter showing reading of 947.4 over land.. is this extrapolated from Wind speed? They obviously aren’t dropping dropsondes over land.
  20. Ja643y
    https://www.weather.gov.ky/radar looking at Cayman Radar, seems like the eye may be tightening, but also causing it to move due N or maybe even a smidge E of N… anyone else see this?
  21. Ja643y
    Not familiar with the area yet, how does the Spruce Pine area in Mitchell County set up for Flow Snow?
  22. Ja643y
    Just turned to a HEAVY sleet for the first time.
  23. Ja643y
    Fattest flakes of the storm right now
  24. Ja643y
    Solid 5.5" everywhere here and coming down hard! I think we get 10" by the time it's all said and done
  25. Ja643y
    ⁰22 degrees and coming down at a good clip. I'd say between 4 and 5 inches here near Little Switzerland.
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