Typhoon Tip

This warm sector means bidness yo 77/74 here at dawn. Even FIT is 70 DP at dawn with a 77 over top. ORH 73/72 Arubian air mass.

Keeping in mind ... climate's also shifting a little. But yeah, I just mean in general. With those lower DP heat expulsions out of the SW that sometimes arrive on an early season ridge ballooning, it's going to be easier to 96 that ... Probably huge diurnals, too

N of about CON NH latitude by about another 20 or 30 miles on N it is hard to do it after spring. The reason for that counter intuitive assessment is because heat early typically is drier. It arrives 'over the top' and then additionally ... the vectors are downsloping as well. Once theta -e is densely injected into the air mass, the sun after the solstice at those latitudes is increasingly challenged to deliver enough energy to raise the temperature very high when the energy is being absorbed in water vapor. Most high heat at high latitudes doesn't accompany 70+ DPs.

You and I have talked about this in the past .. .almost a concomitant morning elevated complex of rains with embedded thunder... Suddenly it clears the hillsides are tinted blue in DP heat. boom

Not a hard guess when in the best of settings we routinely get fucked dude - what planet if you’ve been living on. Lol I’m just being ball busting sarcastic

If this doesn't start getting bowed further west ... have fun staring at CB bums over the harbor

I think I just figured out why the NAM is always coolest in the surface Ts. It's when transition from a cool air mass into a warm one that it does this. It's along the same lines of why it is so good at 800 600 mb layer WAA canceling snow and flipping folks to IP in the winter. Only in the summer, it is also warming that layer almost too fast ... and the surface then ends up under a capping inversion that's very difficult to mix out unless the sky is pristinely clear ... So much as thin layer of cloud and the NAM makes it too hard on itself and ends up with 2-m T that are too cold. It does tend to correct that once < 30 hours.. but this thing for Sunday was 20 21 14 ... then it was 22 22 14 ... now it's 24 22 14

huh ...still made a cheap 80 today .. 79.8 I didn't think we were going above 75 but so did FIT/ASH/BED

Something about it you know? it's evocative ... it's like you're listening to some music and it takes you away to some place in your imagination you've never actually been, yet are still nostalgic and miss being there. I think the reason for that is just because it's such a starkly different realm once it sets up. I mean sensibly... It's not even "hot" anymore... It's just light breezes in between bee-bee pixel down pours. It's different kind of warm humidity

EEN, FIT and ASH all haulin 37 dps this hour This is equivalent to a shot across the bow air mass you get in late August -

This is kinda bush -league buuut, my experience with this kind of annotation outta SPC is we get some dark bases and a couple nickle blat rain drops, then ... that line moves E-S and we end up looking at a back lit CB wall over far SE zones with DPs crashing over western sections. It seems like we're more apt to realize when the SLGT region is slightly west of us, and then we cash -in on the progressive correction

71/44 Newfoundland summer day ...

May be a Bahama blue pattern setting up between D7 and 10 ?

October thickness right next door

At least for the present hour, flawless. 78/58 with about the purest, most serene blue this planet has to offer, with very gentle zephyrs caressing Kevin's napes. ( He loves that - ) Looking at indexes/ ens means, I'd suggest the next sig severe synoptics would be D3/4 ( probably bias the earlier). Then later on toward the 2nd week of July there is another heat signal that the operational runs are hesitant if at all showing much reflection. But the base-line hemisphere is very coherently in -PNA and I don't see any demonstrative version of any ens means that early-suggest any summer variant of blocking. That's like playing with matches and the operational versions may just be doing what they did prior to the last heat wave when its signal was also in the extended. We'll see

Borderline hot and then anvil shut-down. next -

oh my god . it's amazing how fast that's taking over social media

We're getting a summer ...that's all this is. At least so far. Last 2 or 3 summers, back to back, were pieces of shit in my opinion. 2020 was smoke miasma prequel to climate change dystopia. 2021 was okay at times... but a true yuck sticker goes on the next too. So far we've had not unreasonably rain. We've had AN T - so more than summer there. And other than last weekend, we had like 4 in row with utopic temp and sun combos. Even masturbatory nape massaging breezes - Last summer was the worst. Day after day of black mold DP petri dish gloom. Lot of those days the street lights were popping on by 5:30 because of anvil debris and warm nimbus. No severe. Just CC enraged PWAT rainers.

Weird summer 89/50 tomorrow?

Not sure if anyone's paying attention ... or really even cares for that matter, but D7 and beyond has a chance of being exceptionally warm again across eastern mid continental mid latitudes. What's limiting the extent of that ( at this time ) in the guidance is that we seem to be taking a short term excursion through a -EPO. Normally at this time of year ...we'd begin to suspect that to be less correlative ( seasonally ), but the operational guidance versions are in fact showing some transient blocking up there in B.C. or thereabouts ... and sending cooler bursts of hemispheric air through the Canadian shield. This is all kind of new over the last week's worth of model parade, but it does present certain challenges to how hot it may get when the underlying -PNA attempts to roll the next -PNAP synoptics east - namely, ...there's a bit of a heavy N/stream jet suppressing things. Bit unusual to see sub 545 dm L/W axis over eastern Canada, with hgts approaching 600 from TV to the M/A at this time of year. It's creating a lot of mid level wind - It could be overdone .. over played. We deal with this almost foundational over amplitude bias in all guidance, where whatever they're handling in that range just looks huge compared to what happens. If the N stream is too aggressive. We bake ( probably ...). If the N stream backs off and the ridge is also less to suppress, maybe it doesn't matter... it's a juggle. That's basically what the first 10 days of July look like - it could be either neutral-AN, or way AN. Not likely BN

huh NAM came in quite warm. backside of this s/w has been sneaky attenuating cold as it’s gotten closer just like winter.

Is this the 10th nasty storm entering X location of the day? lol. Just kidding some lighthearted trolling

Just my opinion, which probably doesn’t count for a whole hell of a lot in this… but this rather pedestrian convection result, aside from being entirely consistent with our climatology for getting butt banged being far more incredible than any realization when it comes to convection ( except for very rare circumstances 1953, 2011 whatever…), is that the situation was limited by two factors: 1, too much CIN that would not relent … 2, it looked to me this morning that although bulk shear may have been numerically impressive there wasn’t enough directional component involved with it just by observing high resolutions, satellite, visible imagery, and identifying different cloud layers.

Interesting how these storms, CT and NH, seem to be advecting along with the western edge of the lid as it's receding E.

Left Ayer at 8:45 this morning in a mist at 62 F ... wipers on delay, all the way to down to Worcester on I-91. But the temp crept up along the way to 66 or so when I got to Goldstart Highway... I turned up Rt 9 and climbed the long hill, and by the time I got to Marshal Street/Pyramid Disk Golf at 1100' el, it was 71 - testament to how shallow the cool murk was. The region was enshrouded in this 'smoke fog' - the difference between fog and actual cloud vapors. And it was dense...vis about 400 ft, the breeze was blowing plumes of it through the air. It was interesting. I'm pretty sure the warm front was right there. Left and went S of the City by 10 more miles and it was 78. Got back home to Ayer 2.5 hour later and it was 81/77 ... now it is 87/77 with more sun than clouds.