Typhoon Tip

not sure if this should go into the pollution thread or here but ... great. now we've got a mechanism discovered that overlaps the plasticizing the environment, with factors that push climate change https://phys.org/news/2024-11-plastic-krill-ability-carbon-deep.html the two pillars of environmental concern, plastic and climate ...have largely been considered two separate problems - at least implicitly. but molecular polymer pollution interfering with the CO2 fixing capacity of the oceanic biota shows the two do have some possible feedback relationship it should be noted, ~33% of the CO2 produced by human activity since the IR has been eaten by the ocean. much of that capture is within mms of the surface. however, as the ssts warm the physics of this absorbing layer means less absorption. but there are other processes involved.

i dunno - it sounded like you were letting the current presentation of -wpo/-epo pacific make you nervous about winter. i probably read in too deep. haha. but just sayn' i wouldn't do that. the problem i have, which just about abolishes all confidence in what djf turns out is that ... mm nothing we are seeing now ( according to my recollection ) is different from those snow shot across the bow events that preceded a lot of the piece shit winters that we've suffered over the last decade. that's a. b, i can come up with a hypothetical posit as to why ... it has to do with when the gradient of a warmer than normal mid and lower latitude hemisphere presses (seasonally) against the lowering heights above; that enhances the gradient and as recent seasons have shown, is offsetting the longer termed seasonal telecons - ex lending to episodic decoupling of the enso from the mid latitudes with increased frequency ... just one example. but also, the speediness of the hemisphere gets going in a month or so from now, and that kicks in another charm about gradient surplus: too much velocity. the intraseasonal telecons, like the wpo, epo, nao and pna, they're having trouble maintaining pattern biases at all ... stochastically vacillating between positive and negative modes ... this stuff is most likely going to happen again.

you're eliding the point: yeah, but the processes involved are doing so when it is not typically a snow to begin with. it's alright. like i said ... you can penetrate the shroud of emotion-influenced attitude with reason, right or wrong. wrangling emotion cats .. .heh, i like that one. i just don't think anything about this system as being 'unfair' when the "evolution of the system and the processes involved" are actually ahead of the climate curve for this time of year. yeah, there's some positive 2-meter temp anomalies N-W of here. i'll give you guys that .. but in fairness, this system is over-achieving if anything when considering the total synoptic manifold and all parametrics

futile to try and wrangle in emotional cats buuut, how can there be an opportunity missed when considering climate at this time of year? in 1750 this would not be an opportunity lost. if anything...it's a gain having this behavior on the map in general. it's a presage ( possibly ..) for winter, to establish coastal tendencies now - that is all. anything else beyond that dopamine ( lol ) is in fact more than normal. again ...this is just me - to each is his or her own. the latest guidance trending cold rain and cat paws, with elevation wet snow? that is just about exactly what the norman rockwellian climatologist and arm chair pipe smoker would recall of any novembers of lore. see ...realistically, we don't start missing opportunities until the the expectation aligns with winter climate, when it is actually supposed to do so.

if it were me ... i would disconnect this period from winter.

yeah that new deepening was a risk for capture. not sure a nam solution can’t happen. marginal+ but in a dynamic vertical mixing with a burst of fall rates punching w right into that? … that could easily go over to soaked cotten balls out toward Orh and Rt 2 looks like a ccb.

there it is … nice moderate flat wave event 28/29th scary to suggest this for an 18z gfs run … talkin over a week away, but that really is the best fit construct for the type pattering at that time. I mentioned this earlier … not the euro, but stretched system type yes. Unless there’s some fundamental changes in the pattern foot. hell it is 8.5 days out.

ha! yeah, guess we can say our suspicion over the euro reversing the 28ther and the 2nd was the right idea, huh. but i'm not sold or saying that the 2nd is dead, either. i suspect this 28/29th, 12z dopamine may modulate to more of an open wave event. doesn't mean it's has to be a piece of shit either. it's just that the closed deep juggernaut thing is iffy in that general hemispheric look - flow's too longitudinal with flatter l/w structures to see that thing move through like water going around a stone in a stream like that. anyway, i could see both system's being legit but conserving that super synoptic structure, the cyclic dimes might be a better fit. lot's of time ... frankly, i'm still higher confidence for storm activation like several days ago - that's not changed. i'm just concerned about cold and whether that aspect gets attenuated as the time(s) near...

i'd even settle for just getting cold boundary layers - that's really the barest necessity. highs ideally placed is obviously optimal but failing that, a cold residual air mass with a low running by underneath can get the job done. i mean, we haven't really had much success even 'threading the needle' s either.

there was discussion like this back before the 1989 event if memory serves.

the icon has a bit of a stinger look early sat ... i'll go ahead a this post but, i'm not really sure that potential should be ignored. there's a tendency to start conserving more deep layer mechanics with this closing system, nuanced in recent guidance - there's always a bit of variability headaches with these. the icon's trying to say light to moderate cold rain a 534 dm thickness at 12z saturday at the sw arc of a wrapped ccb, around that new deepening... i find that to be warm biased in ptype given that totality

you're gonna need another vomit emoji -

commented about this the other day too - watch that new deepening low passing e of bos friday night. it's not part of the nyc cyclone but is a new committed development. there's signs that western arc could 'fill in' - perhaps assisted by the instability of those tanked mid level colder heights like you're saying. yup

probably a day ... day and half to thread

yeah... not to be a dink, but ..when a i wrote about the double potential (~28th then again ~2nd) earlier, i mentioned the 06z had stepped back ... but that i was fairly confident, based up recent model performance for that 10 day period out there, that it would return. that feature is showing up strongly in the eps - albeit on the 00z run it was more of an eastern lakes cutter with perhaps torpid commitment to secondary - but enough to sense there's some residual bl cold/resistance forcing that to happen. however, the euro operational was nix on the 28ther and selling the latter 2nd much harder on the 00z run cycle. it'll be interesting to see if the euro starts to reverse those - or perhaps carries both ... on the 12z run.

that's why i put the drought term in quotes in that snarkism - i wasn't gonna get into survey gunk

ah,... it's (somewhat suppositional ) but I don't see the fl straight as much of a mystery ...yet the aspect to me, which is rather intuitive ... is geometric bottle-necking. a lot of mass has to move through a small region down there. the 80% still active amoc is still a huge mass quantity compared to what can geophysically squeeze through that region near florida. if the ~20% lowering of the total basin amoc exchange machinery is still above the critical mass continuity thresholds, then it's simply a matter of there still being enough mechanism in place to continue draw the sw atl basin waters out of that region - where mass-continuity keeps velocity/mass transport sufficiently high. most likely, it's gradual ... not yet begun. fl straight starts to decline more gradually across a range of total basin amoc weakening, but doesn't likely begin registering change until the total basin weakening crosses some critical value, but it is > than the present 20% in this idea.

unfortunately ... y'all are gonna have to shut down the d-drip over this "drought" and fire hysteria. you'll get a chance to enjoy getting event stoned soon enough ... but .8 to 1.6 basin coverage is plenty to significantly enough retard fuels in the combustion triad, and that's going to ruin your high. lol as far as what happens after, this is an entirely new pattern ensuing. there are multiple potentials for maintenance/ sub index scaled events that were not there during the dry recency.

there's really two opportunities for cold system complexion within this ensuing pattern. the first being ~27/28th, the next being ~2nd conflicting signals... eps mean/pna index coverage is a better fit for the operational gfs, which likes the ~27-29 period. 06z version may have strayed but it'll be back if recent behavior is any guide the operational euro's been pushing robust/new +pna rise, after the system this weekend - much more so than it's ens mean. it first lowers the index to neutral-neg for couple of days, then a rather impressive rise take place. it's placing an important event during this latter index burst ... around dec 2nd. in a vacuum that isn't altogether unsound. so it's nadir in between is destructively interfering with the 27-29er so it squashes that out. the operational gfs on the other hand, has a more modest rise back to just neutral heading into the first week of dec. this allows the the 27-29 period more coherency ... and because it is less + into the first week of dec ... it's not really jiving with the euro out there.

Fire Weathers got about two days to work it out and then it’s over Buh-bye

yeah ... i'm right along with y'all for ...guarded optimism during these next 2 to 3 weeks, but not touching post dec 10 i realize the very extended gfs ens and/or the eu weeklies this that and the other ( i don't presently know) but once we get toward week 4 those don't really strike me as being very dependable just anecdotally. plus, experience. experience for me is that favorable patterns prior to dec 15 seldom last and in fact, ... i've seen deep snow packs on the 10th go down to mud by xmas eve more times than i care to remember. so ... short version, i agree. now, there are a handful of years that got cold and snowy and stayed that way until after the holidays - i haven't actually compared those to the charlie browns. it could all really be proven noise per empirical data, but i lean toward the 'not lasting' side. especially in 2024's state of the world, that would be the wiser course

still liking that period after this weekend's ordeal. that's been a smattering of sub-teleconnector-scaled systems through dec 3 or 4 out there in the extended guidance since i mentioned the above a couple days ago. any one of which could bring a quickie. of those, the 26th/27th/28th seems to have the greater recurrence in the runs. i'm not predicting that per se, but the gfs' 06z flat fast mover fits the pattern. what we're heading into is a -epo cold loading into a low frequency +pna... that means the flow isn't really going to tip trough west, ridge east, as the initial -epo response ... blah blah blah ... the trough ends up a bit down stream off the -epo. such that you get a compressed faster flow field where the cold heights and thicknesses compress against the se ridge.

... in which case, ray and scott would actually trophy this whole ordeal and the rest of use would be left out. fascinating

the problem with this system - all along in guidance ... - is that it is arriving over an amorphous low level troposphere. there's no real fronts or thermodynamic gradients between se ontario and nj/sne. that's why the surface low response is sort of instantly stacking under the low, as opposed to developing se and then capturing later. what's interesting though is the hints of new deepening in late innings. the 06z is now biting on that idea more coherently, precariously close to bringing a sub 980 mb new deepening e of the region - close to being a short duration burst of isallobaric wind ...wind rushing in upon exit... moreover, a small non-zero chance that it would clip and bring a burst of - by then - wet snow or mix contention while doing so... so there is bit of enhanced uncertainty relative to this time range

lol scott and ray with a clearly objective response to the intents and purposes of the cosmic dildo. priceless ...